NLCS preview: Breaking down Cardinals vs. Giants

ST. LOUIS — The San Francisco Giants would be wise to call on Barry Zito to throw out the ceremonial first pitch before Game 5 of the National League Championship Series. The mere sight of the $126 million man could make the St. Louis Cardinals shudder.

The Cardinals led the Giants three games to one in the 2012 NLCS when Zito stepped up and shut down St. Louis in a 5-0, series-turning victory at Busch Stadium. Back in San Francisco, the Giants outscored St. Louis 15-1 in the final two games and went on to sweep the Tigers for their second World Series title in three years.

When the NL heavyweights meet this time, the Cardinals will hold home-field advantage and Zito, who didn't pitch in 2014 after the Giants bought out the last year of his mega-contract, will be watching on TV if he's watching at all.

He should be watching because this shapes up as a series fans don't want to miss. Both clubs are coming off impressive NL Division Series upsets that, as much as anything, epitomized their refuse-to-lose attitude. But now, one of them must.

For all the uncertainties about this series, there is no doubting who enters as the hottest hitter. Third baseman Matt Carpenter hit a home run and a double in each of three of the four games in the Cardinals' NLDS win over the Dodgers. He led a St. Louis power attack that had been dormant most of the season. The Cardinals hit seven homers in the first round, including game-changing blasts by left fielder Matt Holliday, first baseman Matt Adams and second baseman Kolten Wong. Center fielder Jon Jay didn't homer but, as he did during the regular season, he led the Cardinals in hitting. Jay, who hit .303 in the regular season, went 5 for 11 and reached base eight times in the series.

The Cardinals need to find a way to get their offense started earlier. They scored 15 of their 18 runs against the Dodgers after the sixth inning. Much of the order struggled against the Dodgers, including their leading home run hitter during the regular season, shortstop Jhonny Peralta, and All-Star catcher Yadier Molina. They were held to three hits apiece in a combined 6-for-29 showing. While rookies Wong and right fielder Randal Grichuk supplied a home run each, they combined to go 3 for 25 in the rest of their at-bats.

The Giants made the most of what offense they mustered against the Nationals in the NLDS. San Francisco scored a total of nine runs in four games, which was what the Cardinals had by the end of the seventh inning of their Game 1 — and one fewer than the Giants scored in their Wild Card Game blowout of the Pirates.

Catcher Buster Posey, who hit .354 with 12 homers after the All-Star break, led the Giants in the NLDS with a 7-for-18 effort, but all of his hits were singles and he only drove in one run. San Francisco hit more homers than St. Louis during the regular season, but first baseman Brandon Belt belted the team's only long ball in the NLDS, an 18th-inning blast that decided Game 2 and, really, the series.

Hitting behind No. 3 Posey, third baseman Pablo Sandoval and right fielder Hunter Pence give the Giants a formidable middle of the order that has furnished plenty of postseason heroics.

The Giants offense should get a lift with the expected return of left fielder Mike Morse (oblique). His replacement, Travis Ishikawa, went 2 for 11 against the Nationals. Only center fielder Gregor Blanco fared worse, at 2 for 18. Blanco began the season as the Giants' fourth outfielder but has taken over center field — and the leadoff role — for Angel Pagan. The club's MVP for much of the first half, Pagan underwent season-ending back surgery last month.

EDGE: Cardinals (especially if their power holds up)

Giants Game 1 starter Madison Bumgarner is the least-want-to-face pitcher on either side. A nasty left-hander, Bumgarner shut out the Pirates in the Wild Card Game, and though he was the Game 3 loser against the Nationals, his pitching wasn't the problem. A throwing error to third led to the winning runs. Bumgarner will be matched up against 20-game winner Adam Wainwright who, after a superb September, lasted only 4 1/3 innings and gave up six runs in Game 1 against the Dodgers. Cardinals manager Mike Matheny indicated earlier this week that his ace is dealing with a tired arm, but Wainwright insists he's ready to go. As he pointed out, he looked pretty good going 5-0 with a 1.38 ERA in September.

Veteran John Lackey, emerging Lance Lynn and hard-throwing Shelby Miller all entered the postseason on strong runs and turned in strong starts against the Dodgers. Lynn, however, has had little success against San Francisco in his short career. In five starts, he is 0-4 and has allowed at least four runs in each. Neither Lackey nor Miller pitched against the Giants this season, though Miller beat them twice in 2013.

The key to the series could be the performance of Giants veterans Jake Peavy, Tim Hudson and Ryan Vogelsong. Peavy, the likely Game 2 starter, has gone 7-4 with a 2.03 ERA with the Giants after going 1-9 with a 4.72 ERA with the Red Sox.

Hudson and Vogelsong both struggled in September but turned in strong efforts against the Nationals. Vogelsong handled the Cardinals twice in the 2012 NLCS but has been roughed up by them in two of his three starts since.

EDGE: Giants (only because of Lynn's poor history against them)

Giants relievers are an experienced crew of 30-somethings who finished third in the NL with a 3.01 ERA. Their No. 1 strength, however, is their manager, Bruce Bochy. He is regarded as the best in the game at knowing whom to call on and when to call on them. He switched closers in the first half, opting for Santiago Casilla over Sergio Romo, now the primary eighth-inning man. Casilla has gone 19 for 20 in save chances, including 2 for 2 against the Nationals, since moving into the ninth inning. He relies on a sinker and curveball to go with a 94-mph fastball.

Jeremy Affeldt and Javier Lopez give Bochy a tandem of left-handers with extensive postseason experience. During one stretch, long man Yusmeiro Petit set a major-league record by retiring 46 consecutive batters. He worked six scoreless innings in relief in the 18-inning Game 2 victory at Washington. Tim Lincecum has moved to the bullpen for the postseason but did not pitch against the Nationals.

Watch Games 2, 3, 4, 5 and 7 of the NLCS on FOX Sports 1. FOX will broadcast Games 1 and 6. (Games 5, 6 and 7 if necessary.)

Hard-throwing Trevor Rosenthal saved 45 regular-season games in his first full campaign as a closer, plus another three NLDS saves against the Dodgers. Combined in the regular season and NLDS, he struck out 91 in 73 1/3 innings but, largely because of 43 walks, few of his outings were smooth. Sidewinder Pat Neshek emerged as an All-Star setup man, and though he gave up a game-deciding homer to Matt Kemp in Game 2, he bounced back to work three-up, three-down eighth innings in Games 3 and 4. Rookie lefty Marco Gonzales has moved ahead of veteran Randy Choate and Sam Freeman as Matheny's go-to lefty, though Gonzales started in the minors and is capable of working multiple innings. Second-year right-handers Carlos Martinez and Seth Maness both seemed to raise their performance as the postseason neared.

Michael Wacha, who won four games as a starter last postseason, was moved to the bullpen after missing much of the second half with a shoulder issue but did not pitch against the Dodgers.

EDGE: Giants (because of Bochy's success in handling bullpens)

Cardinals rookie Oscar Taveras produced the only hit off the bench for either side in the first round. The Cardinals, however, have a proven postseason performer in infielder Daniel Descalso. In center fielder Peter Bourjos and infielder Pete Kozma, they also have a pair of excellent late-inning defenders they can call on. The Giants used three rookies — sparingly — against the Nationals, and none made an impact.

EDGE: Cardinals

With 30 wins for the Cardinals and 26 for the Giants, these are the majors' winningest teams in the postseason since 2010. There are numerous reasons for that, including an ability by both to rally just when it seems they're done.

Both also are managed by tough-minded former catchers who run unselfish, harmonious clubhouses. Matheny has reached the NLCS in his first three seasons as a manager; Bochy is going for a third World Series championship that probably would clinch his place in Cooperstown.

Both teams also play solid defense and rarely make game-costing mistakes.

The Giants are led by the indomitable spirit of Pence, who never misses a game or a chance to rally the troops with a stirring speech.

But the Cardinals own home-field advantage, and they have gone 24-7 at Busch Stadium since the end of July.

EDGE: Cardinals (because of that home-field advantage)

You can follow Stan McNeal on Twitter at @StanMcNeal or email him at stanmcneal@gmail.com.