NFL countdown: Packers at Raiders

By Dave Heller
Published

History is a wonderful thing. Some of it can actually teach us about the present.

Of course, sometimes not, too. Take for example the matchup history between the Green Bay Packers and Oakland Raiders. They haven't played since 2003, so while saying this a Super Bowl II rematch (won by Green Bay 33-14), ignore any records or statistics from this series.

However, we do know that while teams located out west have an issue playing early games in the east (or central), the Packers don't have the opposite issue. Green Bay is 3-1 under head coach Mike McCarthy when playing in California (and 10-2 since 1990).

Aaron Rodgers has had an up-and-down season, but since 2008 he has a 100.2 passer rating in road games, which leads the NFL.

In other words, there is some recent statistical evidence which points Green Bay's way.

Here's a closer look at Sunday's matchup:

3 THINGS TO WATCH

-- Amari Cooper has quickly established himself as one of the best young wide receivers in the NFL. He needs just 80 receiving yards to be the first Raiders wide receiver to reach 1,000 yards since Randy Moss in 2005. However, Cooper had no catches (on eight targets) in Oakland's win over Denver last week. Expect the Raiders to correct that against the Packers. However, Green Bay's defensive backs held Dez Bryant to just one reception on six targets in Week 14. The Packers will have to try and limit Cooper without starting cornerback Sam Shields, who won't be making the trip to Oakland after suffering a concussion in the Dallas game.

-- Both quarterbacks in this game are having amazingly similar seasons. Oakland's Derek Carr: 62.2 percent completions, 3,313 yards, 28 touchdowns, 9 interceptions, 7.3 average yards per attempt and a 96.5 QB rating. Green Bay's Aaron Rodgers: 61.2 percent, 3,175 yards, 28 TD, 5 INT, 7.6 y/a, 97.5 rating. However, the Packers haven't allowed 250+ yards passing since week 9 vs. Carolina. While Rodgers has gone seven straight games without posting a passer rating of 100 or higher, the longest drought of his career. Will something give?

-- Packers fans are keenly aware of Charles Woodson and all he brings to the table. The former Green Bay defensive back is having one heck of a season at safety for Oakland at age 39. He is second in the NFL with eight takeaways -- and his five interceptions are his most since he had seven with the Packers since 2011 -- and you know he'd love to up that total against his former team. Woodson also has four fumble recoveries and nine passes defensed. He is still a playmaker and Aaron Rodgers better beware.

2 THINGS TO REMEMBER

-- The playoff math for Green Bay couldn't be any simpler: win and the Packers are in. There are other ways as well. Green Bay could lose (or tie) and would also make the playoffs if Washington (hosting Buffalo) or the New York Giants (at home vs. unbeaten Carolina) fall. If none of these happen, Green Bay of course still has a very good chance to make the playoffs, but why not get it out of the way as well as help solidify a chance at winning the NFC North (and thus ensure a home playoff game) instead of battling for wild-card positioning.

-- Might 21 points be enough for the Packers to win? Oakland hasn't been scoring points lately -- 14, 13, 24, 20, 15 in last five weeks -- while Green Bay has held four of its last five opponents to under 20 points. And if it is a close game, keep this in mind: Green Bay has the best fourth-quarter scoring differential in the NFL (+53), while Oakland has the worst (-66).

1 KEY MATCHUP

Khalil Mack vs. Packers offensive line

Speaking of established young players, Mack has been a force in recent weeks for Oakland. Green Bay's offensive line has been banged up, so perhaps the Packers leave someone in to help block the explosive second-year outside linebacker. After posting just four sacks in his first 11 games, Mack is heating up, with nine sacks in the last three games -- including an incredible five against the Broncos, plus a forced fumble which led to safety in that Oakland victory. He's the kind of player who can tip the balance of a game and the Packers should be very wary of him. The Raiders don't have much of a pass rush without Mack (just two other sacks in the last three games), though, so contain him and Rodgers and company could be sitting pretty.

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