Ned Yost's pregame reading ...

By foxsports
Published

Just getting this out of the way first ... The Royals aren't as good as the Athletics.

That's the bad news for Royals fans. The good news is they have to win just one game, and the game's in Kansas City. Which makes this essentially a 50/50 proposition.

Which doesn't mean the Royals can't do something to improve their chances some. They do have a few outstanding qualities, and Dave Cameron's got some advice for Yost on how to use them. 

One, Yost should unleash the running game. The Royals stole 153 bases this season, and were nabbed only 36 times. Oakland's starting pitcher is Jon Lester, a lefty who doesn't control the running game well; in fact, Lester didn't make a single pick-off throw all season! The A's catchers aren't strong here, either. The Royals might be able to run wild, and the weird Wild Card Game rosters -- you need to carry only seven or eight pitchers -- mean plenty of pinch-running opportunities.

And two, Yost should rely heavily on his outstanding bullpen. Yes, even with James Shields starting:

The Royals biggest advantage over other teams is their relief corps, and they’ve done a good enough job building depth that they don’t need to ask Shields to pitch through the order more than twice tonight. Given an expected .300 on base percentage against him, that would put him in line to get something like 12 or 13 outs, leaving the remaining 14 or 15 for the bullpen.

That’s three outs apiece for Frasor and Herrera to get the team through the sixth inning, and then Davis and Holland can split the final three innings between them, with Crow and Scott Downs or Francisley Bueno around for situational match-up work if it’s needed. The team had a day off yesterday and will have a day off tomorrow, so there’s no reason to hold back on the bullpen usage. Even with “Big Game James” on the mound, the Royals best chance to win is to get him out of the game after 18 batters faced.

Of course this won't happen. You know, this sort of thing just isn't done. Which means we can't really criticize Yost if (say) Shields gives up two or three runs in the sixth inning and the Royals lose.

Also, it's a very small thing. But then, most things in single games are small things. We focus on the managers at this time of the year because we have to focus on something. But most of what happens now is beyond their control.