Most improved positions
Unless you'€™re taking it literally like the Dodgers did in the Arizona outfield in 2013, there are essentially two ways to make a splash in the baseball offseason.
You sign a big free agent, like the Nationals, Cubs and Padres did on the pitching side of the clubhouse and the Red Sox did a couple times over on the hitting side. Or you make a major trade, which is how the Padres acquired the centerpieces of their winter beef-up.
Yet, those are far from the only places to look when analyzing which teams made big improvements this offseason. Sometimes you make a big jump at one position thanks to something as simple as a player coming back from injury. Or a breakout from a player who'€™d had early career struggles. Or a bounce-back from a bad season. Or in one notable case this year, being able to move on after a retirement.
Take the Padres.
They loaded up by trade, acquiring Justin Upton, Matt Kemp and Wil Myers by dealing from the strength of their farm system. They supplemented by free agency, signing James Shields, the last major free agent left on the market.
Yet none of those moves is projected to impact any single position as much as something that will make far fewer headlines --€“ Jedd Gyorko'€™s bounce-back from a bad 2014 season.
Eight positions in baseball, including the Padres second base, are projected by Baseball Prospectus'€™ PECOTA system to jump at least three wins this year, as measured by Wins Above Replacement Player. None of those eight is the direct result of a free-agent signing.
There are few splashes on the list, but especially for teams hovering somewhere in the 80s in their projected win totals, these are the spots that could make all the difference.
t6. Reds first base --€“ Injury return
+ 3.0 wins (2.1 WARP to 5.1 projected WARP)
This one is almost purely an improvement based on playing time. Joey Votto was actually quite good when he was available, no matter what anyone calling radio stations in Southwest Ohio (or apparently calling games on those stations) will tell you.
And because of that, PECOTA still sees him as a contender for an MVP Award, which he should be if the leg is fully healthy. Only the Marlins'€™ right field (Giancarlo Stanton) and the Pirates' center field (Andrew McCutchen) project as better positions. What happens elsewhere on the crumbling Reds roster is another story, but they'€™ll be getting a few of those wins back at first base.
t6. Cardinals second base --€“ Breakout
+ 3.0 wins (0.2 WARP to 3.2 projected WARP)
Kolten Wong hasn'€™t been horrible. While his major-league stats are pedestrian to put it kindly, he'€™s always been able to hit in the minors, and PECOTA takes into account how that tends to translate. And most of his bad was concentrated into the first three months of last season (.228/.282/.304), which ended with a DL stint in late June to fix repeated flare-ups of shoulder soreness.
Perhaps most encouraging was Wong'€™s improvement after returning to the majors on July 6. Despite just 60 starts the rest of the way, he hit 11 home runs. And three more in just eight playoff games. If that'€™s anything like his true power, translating to something in the 20s for the whole season, there'€™s a whole lot of player here. PECOTA certainly likes it.
t6. Padres second base --€“ Bounce-back
+ 3.0 wins (-0.6 WARP to 2.4 projected WARP)
This one is asking us to put a lot of faith in the projection, because of any of these improvements, it'€™s one of the least clear to the eye test.
Gyorko, in a much anticipated sophomore season, turned out to be the very definition of replacement level. So the reason that the Padres were so far below it was the stable of Alexi Amarista, Yangervis Solarte, Brooks Conrad, Jace Peterson, Irving Falu, Chris Nelson and Cory Spangenberg, all of whom got double digit-plate appearances and most of whom were even worse.
The recovery has to be all Gyorko, though. The BABIP should help him a little bit --€“ you'™d think he can only go up from .253. He also raised his walk rate, and if he can combine that with his 2013 bat, this position will be as improved as anything in the much shinier outfield.
t4. Mariners center field --€“ Trade/Bounce-back
+ 3.6 wins (-1.1 WARP to 2.5 projected WARP)
The 2014 season was a perfect storm of awful for the Mariners in center field. Their first-half was bad enough that it needed to be addressed at the trade deadline, and when they did acquire a very credible replacement, Austin Jackson totally collapsed.
The .229/.267/.260 that he hit after the trade was, believe it or not, BABIP-aided --€“ the .309 BABIP was above the major-league average, though well below his career mark. Jackson just stopped hitting for extra bases. He'€™s never been a great home run hitter, but he'€™s still waiting on his first as a Mariner in what will be his 237th plate appearance on Opening Day. His doubles and triples cratered, too.
A return to even an average or slightly above-average starter, with those secondary bases being a necessary part of that, would create an enormous lift for the Mariners.
With Seattle at a major inflection point on the win curve, it'€™s not a stretch to say that this is the most important position to watch this year.
t4. Dodgers catcher -- Trade
+ 3.6 wins (-0.7 WARP to 2.9 projected WARP)
It might be time to stop calling this the Matt Kemp trade before the season even starts. One of the major reasons PECOTA is projecting the Dodgers to finish five games clear of the field for the best record in baseball is their big upgrade behind the plate from A.J. Ellis to Yasmani Grandal, who might be the real centerpiece in that Dodgers-Padres deal.
Projecting this for a catcher is always difficult. Clayton Kershaw was vocal, for instance, about how much he enjoyed throwing to Ellis, who was bad in the traditional measures and was also measured as a poor framer.
Grandal is near the top of the list in the latter and also more than survived as a hitter in San Diego. If the staff can find that comfort level with him at Camelback Ranch this spring, this is a no-brainer gift to the team that has everything.
3. Yankees shortstop --€“ Retirement
+ 3.9 wins (-2.9 WARP to 1.0 projected WARP)
What do Vladimir Guerrero, Larry Walker, Roberto Alomar, Jeff Kent, Sammy Sosa, Rafael Palmeiro and Lance Berkman have in common?
Each one of them, from the comfort of his own piece of living room furniture, passed Derek Jeter on the career WARP list in 2014.
By pretty much all accounts, the Captain earned the right to go out on his terms, and there were benefits to his employer of sticking around, both financial and presumably intangible.
But no matter what Didi Gregorius and his band of backups do this year, there will be a huge improvement over baseball'€™s worst performing position player. Whether that'€™s recognized in New York is a different story given the need to "€œfill the shoes of a legend" is a different story, but the Yankees should be instantly better.
2. Rangers first base --€“ Injury return
+4.0 wins (-1.1 WARP to 2.9 projected WARP)
Year 1 of one of baseball'€™s most fun experiments was a false start. Wondering what would happen if you put one of baseball'€™s foremost left-handed sluggers in a terrific lefty hitter'€™s park like Arlington proved to be just a mental exercise.
A model of perfect baseball health until last year, Fielder'€™s neck gave out, requiring surgery that would cost him almost the entire season. He'€™s healthy now, and while he isn'€™t projected for any superstar heights, the Rangers were so unprepared for Fielder'€™s unavailability that a return to even half of his 2009-2012 peak would make him the second-biggest upgrade at any position.
1. Cardinals right field --€“ Trade
+7.2 wins (-2.2 WARP to 5.0 projected WARP)
If the Cardinals are going to get only a year of team control out of Jason Heyward, they might as well make the most of it, and with Pittsburgh looming and the Cubs charging, this is the year to make the most of it. It sure looks like they will.
Heyward'€™s arrival addresses what had been a severely negative position, with Allen Craig failing to live up to his debut before being shipped out. Following the death of Oscar Taveras in a car accident at the beginning of the offseason, the Cardinals looked externally for a right fielder and found a great one.
Much of Heyward'€™s value is in his defense, which is a hard thing to project year-to-year but which has been consistently and overwhelmingly positive -- and in two of the past three years, elite. Even with a return to human levels, Heyward's on-base skills would still keep this the biggest improvement of the offseason at a single position.