Lockout has taken its toll on NBA season
Well, that didn't take long.
The NBA regular season -- now in the process of transitioning to the playoffs -- lasted about a month less than the pesky lockout that preceded it. Four months after doomsday expectations were allowed to tag along with greatly diminished preparation time, it's time to determine if the sky was falling with more frequency than the professional-caliber jump shot.
How has squeezing 66 games into four months affected the physical and mental wherewithal of players? And how, in turn, have these variables influenced the quality of play?
"It's hard to think of the schedule we had this year not taking its toll on players physically," one assistant coach employed by an Eastern Conference team said. "But I think an area where we saw more impact was mental fatigue.
"Having to get that energy level up for an NBA game without as much time to recover was a grind. It's a grind in a normal season, but -- at times -- it seemed like one continuous wave we were trying to get out of. Aside from getting up emotionally night in and night out, coaches and players had less time thinking the game ... it was tough to budget time to mentally prepare for an opponent. That, I think, contributed to the quality of play."
Just what was the quality of play this season?
Well, based on a statistical comparison of basic categories from this season and the previous campaign, the quality is down. For the record, we're looking at an average of the league's offensive numbers. We could go in the opposite direction, note the rise in defensive efficiency and proclaim the lockout actually upgraded the level of play.
"Hey, I'm a defensive guy and wouldn't mind going in that direction," our coach said.
OK, maybe later.
For now, please note the per-game scoring average for NBA teams last season was 99.6, with 11 teams dropping more than 100 each night. This season checks in at 96.3 and three, respectively.
That's a pretty nasty dip. But maybe it has more to do with tempo.
To be sure, the pace was slower this season, but only .9 possessions per 48 minutes. A more relevant number is offensive efficiency. Last season's average was 107.3 points per 100 possessions with 17 teams at 107 or above. This season, it's 104.7 and only 6, respectively.
Field-goal shooting percentages dropped about one point overall and from 3-point range, with the number of teams averaging 80 percent or higher from the free-throw line dropping from four to one.
"With a lot less time to work on coverages and rotations," the assistant coach said, "I really don't think those numbers were caused by more sophisticated defense. It's pretty easy to see that having a full month of camp, practices and preseason games in October gives you so much more opportunity to fine tune than two preseason games and camp over a couple of weeks in December.
"Instead of adding players in trades, free agency or rookies and whatever in July, then having camp more than three months later, teams were bringing new players onto their teams while camps were opening. And it really looked like the season could have been lost, so some of the guys weren't physically ready on top of that. Now that I think about it, things could have gone a lot worse."
This brings us to the injury review, which -- having last season's Most Valuable Player spending much of the season in dry dock -- certainly seems ripe for bad news. But even with a list of temporary or long-term casualties that includes the names Derrick Rose, Kobe Bryant, Al Horford, Dwyane Wade, Manu Ginobili, Zach Randolph and Amar'e Stoudemire, the numbers don't fit the negative expectations.
According to Kevin Pelton of Hoop Prospectus, the average number of players missing from action per game has been 3.2, which is a slight decrease from last season (3.6).
While it's tricky -- maybe impossible -- to quantify which injuries accompanied lack of preparation or recovery time in either season, we should feel safe believing the lockout did not require training-room expansion for NBA arenas.
Pelton's recently-posted salvo of injury-related statistics also underlined another healthy season for the Phoenix Suns, whose highly-regarded training staff has managed to keep a team loaded with relative old coots up and mostly running.
But in addition to leading the league in fewest games lost to injury, the setting Suns -- once their roles were defined for several newcomers -- have improved this season. Despite the shoe-horned schedule, they became older and better.
A look at the standings reminds us the San Antonio Spurs and Boston Celtics continue to prosper even though they both employ some high-mileage stars. Sure, both teams have added important younger pieces, but they also have raised their level of play in the season's second half with older guys still taking a large chunk of the responsibility.
The defending champion Dallas Mavericks didn't get too old; they were simply more interested in accruing cap space for a long-term run than they were in repeating.
Please note their owner, Mark Cuban, has suggested the level of officiating -- which rarely passes his discerning muster -- has dropped off this season, too.
"I don't have anything to quantify if they're statistically worse on the average," said one NBA personnel executive. "But I do know the league has lost some veteran refs to retirement or whatever over the last couple of years, and having so many new guys has led to some really poorly-officiated games."
The personnel guy also said having a compacted NBA schedule has made it more difficult for him to personally scrutinize his team and college prospects.
"How about a little shout-out for how the lockout has affected the use of our time?" he asked.
What a trooper.