Lions-Bears Breakdown: Beautiful losers

The Lions have been good losers this season, and not in any of the obvious ways.

It has nothing to do with the long losing streaks on the road or against NFC North rivals.The way they lose is what has separated the Lions from the other NFL teams with below .500 records.

If Sunday's game with the Bears at Ford Field were a horse race, the form chart would have the Lions in the lead at the top of the stretch only to fade at the wire and get nipped by a nose, a neck, a head -- or a length at the most.

Their 2-9 record is a result of their lack of staying power and inability to close out games. The Lions' nine losses have been by an average of 8.22 points. That means they almost always remain within striking difference. The 45-24 loss to the Patriots on Thanksgiving Day was an aberration.

The Lions don't fold and fall apart. They wilt.

Of the other 14 teams with losing records, only the Cleveland Browns have lost by a smaller margin. The Browns are 4-7, and the seven losses are by an average of 7.14 points. No. 3 behind the Browns and Lions are the Cincinnati Bengals, who are 2-9 with an average loss by 9.0 points.

The Seattle Seahawks are the league's worst losers -- 21.83 points per loss in a 5-6 record. The other biggest losers are the Arizona Cardinals (3-8, and 17.5 points per loss), Oakland Raiders (5-6 and 14.83 points per loss) and Carolina Panthers (1-10 and 13.9 points).

Here is this week's FOX Sports Detroit Breakdown:

Site/kickoff: Ford Field, Detroit, 1 p.m. (EST).
Records: Lions 2-9, Bears 8-3.
History: The Bears have a 92-64-5 series edge and have won five straight. The Lions' last win over the Bears was 16-7 at Soldier Field in 2007. It also was the Lions' last win on the road and their last win against a team from the NFC North.

Bears' keys: The running game has changed the offense's profile and performance. It takes pressure off quarterback Jay Cutler, reducing sacks and turnovers.

In their four-game winning streak, Matt Forte has rushed for 342 yards. Earlier, Forte had 166 yards in a victory over Carolina.

The defense has improved steadily, with pressure up front and strong play by the linebackers -- Lance Briggs and Brian Urlacher in particular.

The defense makes stops and gets off the field. In the last three games, opponents have converted only six of 33 third-down situations. The Bears have 10 sacks in the last two games.

Devin Hester has returned to form as the NFL's pre-eminent return specialist. He has two TDs on punt returns and has averaged 35.6 yards on five kickoff returns.

Lions' keys: They have to keep the heat off third-string quarterback Drew Stanton, making his first start of the season and second of his career.

A big game on defense will help, and that begins up front. Pressure on the quarterback hides weaknesses in the back seven, where the pass defense is suspect.

The Lions had four sacks in the opener at Chicago but still gave up a net of 362 yards passing. Cutler hit Forte with two long TD passes and connected with backup tailback Chester Taylor for a key third-down conversion.

Stanton has to play with command and efficiency and limit turnovers. His strength is his mobility. If he stands in the pocket and tries to pick the defense apart with his arm, he'll be playing to his weakness, not his strength.

The return game could be crucial. A big return by Stefan Logan and holding Hester in check could swing field position and the game to the Lions' favor.

Chicago Hit Man: Bears defensive end Julius Peppers altered the course of a game and the Lions' season when he sacked quarterback Matthew Stafford late in the first half of the opening game at Soldier Field.

The hit injured Stafford's right shoulder and put him out for five games. It also caused a fumble that was recovered by the Bears and converted into a field goal to cut the deficit to 14-13. The Bears went on to win, 19-14.

"I don't know what it meant to that team," Peppers said of the sack in a conference-call interview earlier in the week. "It seems like it was years ago. We've forgotten that as a team, and we're not really concerned about anything that happened last week or 10 weeks ago.

"We're concerned about getting prepared to play this game Sunday."

On the play, the Lions had first down at their 45 and a 14-10 lead with 29 seconds left in the half. The sack by Peppers changed everything.

Quarterback roulette: Because of injuries and performance, the Lions have had no stability at quarterback.

Sunday's game will be the sixth between the Lions and Bears in the last three seasons, and Stanton will be the fifth quarterback to start for the Lions.Stafford has started two games. Jon Kitna, Dan Orlovsky and Daunte Culpepper had one start each.

Cutlery: Cutler has turned his season around after a slow start marked by turnovers and sacks.

The highlight was in last week's win over the Eagles, when he threw four TD passes without an interception and had a passer rating of 146.2. In the Bears' four-game winning streak, Cutler has nine TD passes against three interceptions and has been sacked 10 times. He was sacked 26 times in his first six games and missed a start because of a concussion.

Bears coach Lovie Smith was asked if the Bears are finally reaping the benefits of last year's trade that brought Cutler in from Denver.

"We're definitely reaping the benefits of it," Smith said in a conference-call interview. "But we saw early on what Jay could do."

Stanton file: The Bears don't have much of a book on Stanton. Stanton's other start was last year at San Francisco. He had an off day, completing 11 of 21 passes for 130 yards with three interceptions and no touchdowns.

Stanton is starting because of injuries to Stafford (shoulder) and Shaun Hill (broken finger).

One of Stanton's strengths is the mobility he displayed in a performance against the Giants earlier this season. Stanton went in for Hill late in the first half and gave a creditable performance. Stanton ran three times for 30 yards and completed 19 of 34 passes for 222 yards, one TD and an interception.

Peppers did not express any concern about Stanton's mobility, considering how the Bears kept Eagles QB Michael Vick relatively in check in the last game.

"We played the best quarterback last week that gets out of the pocket and uses his legs," Peppers said. "I think we did a pretty good job of containing him. So we feel like we should be able to adjust to whoever is under the center."

Rod squad: Former Lions head coach Rod Marinelli (2006-08) is in his second season as a Bears assistant. He was promoted to defensive coordinator this year, and the unit has responded.

The Bears rank fourth overall in the league and are second against the run. They gave up 337 yards a game last year and ranked 17th in the league. This year the average is 300 yards a game.

It helps that middle linebacker Brian Urlacher has returned from a wrist injury sustained in the first game last year that knocked him out for the season. Signing Peppers as a free agent added a player who commands double teams on most plays.

Smith gives Marinelli credit for the defense's improvement.

"I knew that I've never been around a better leader than him," Smith said. "Rod has just done a super job with the guys. You can ask any of the guys on the team, and they're going to say the same thing about the job he's done.

"He comes to work every day with a plan. He doesn't accept anything but your best, every snap."

Prediction: The Lions keep it close again, but not close enough to cover the spread.

The Bears' defense is strong and fast, and the offense is in sync. The Lions need too many things to go right to win.

From the Book of Mike: Chapter 13, Verse 3: A fool and his money make a wonderful combination to bet against. Give the points.

It's Bears 27, Lions 20.

Dec. 3, 2010