Life without Steph: projecting the Warriors' playoff odds with Curry sidelined

Steph Curry's second injury scare in four games posed a frightening question for the Golden State Warriors: what would life be like with Curry sidelined for the remainder of the playoffs?

The Warriors received good news earlier today when an MRI revealed that Curry's right knee, injured in Game 4 against the Houston Rockets, suffered only a Grade 1 MCL sprain. However, he’s still expected to miss at least two weeks, which means the Warriors will be without their star for the remainder of the Rockets series and perhaps for a likely series with the Los Angeles Clippers as well. If Curry faces another setback and is forced to miss more time, how are the Warriors’ playoff odds impacted? Using WhatIfSports.com's NBA simulation engine, we played the Warriors 1,001 times against some possible playoff foes to see how the team fared with and without Curry. In simulations that Curry was benched, we gave the start to Shaun Livingston and distributed remaining minutes among other Warriors guards. Check out the results:

*To simulate a matchup with Curry sidelined, simply select "Edit Depth Chart" and create your own lineup.

With Curry on the court, the Warriors are favored in each matchup. The San Antonio Spurs represent the greatest challenge to a healthy Warriors squad, as Golden State won just 50.8 percent of the time, outpacing the Spurs by an average score of 104.3-103.1. In a possible Finals rematch with the Cleveland Cavaliers, Golden State won 63.3 percent of simulations with an intact squad, beating LeBron and co. by an average score of 109.7-104.7.

When the matchups were simulated with Curry on the sideline, the narrative changed significantly. Golden State's scoring average dropped from 107.9 points per game to 98.9, while their average win percentage dipped from 60.3 to 43.9. The team remained a favorite against the Rockets but would be an underdog against the Clippers, Spurs, Thunder or Cavaliers.

Next, we looked ahead to what an NBA Finals might look like without the Warriors. We simulated Cleveland's chances against the Spurs, Thunder and Clippers, playing each matchup 1,001 times:

Even before sweeping the Detroit Pistons, the Cavaliers were the heavy favorite to win the Eastern Conference Finals. When WhatIfSports.com simulated the NBA Playoffs, Cleveland advanced to the championship 44.0 percent of the time but won the title in just 9.8 percent of simulations. Facing a team other than the Warriors will help those odds, but not tremendously. According to the simulation, the Cavaliers have the best shot against the Clippers and are least likely to beat the Spurs.

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