Is Yadi Bear really slipping?

So, I missed this the other day: Seems some pointy-headed nerd who used to write for this site found some numbers suggesting Yadier Molina has slipped. A lot. Do Rob Arthur’s numbers even begin to pass the sniff test, though?

As you might imagine, there are some naysayers in St. Louis. Wednesday, Bernie Miklasz talked to the Head Naysayer about Arthur’s work:

Honestly, I can’t figure out Matheny’s point here. Is Matheny really arguing that the umpires are aware that Molina’s been a great pitch-framer, so they’re compensating by giving him many fewer of the borderline calls?

You gotta admit, that’s an original argument!

Which isn’t to says it’s wrong. But Molina’s decline as a pitch-framer – according to the metrics, anyway – obviously began last season. And if umpires were hyper-aware of these numbers and compensating accordingly, wouldn’t we also have seen similar declines from Jonathan Lucroy and Russell Martin, probably the other two catchers best known as great framers?

Again, I’m not saying Matheny’s wrong. And of course there are exactly zero reasons for him to do anything except defend his guy. To the hilt. But if we’re going to bet against the numbers, we do need more than his say-so. What we have is Molina’s pre-2013 history, which is powerful stuff. I’m not ready to say that he’s become a below-average framer; even a poor one, if you believe the numbers.

I sure wouldn’t dismiss the notion out of hand, though. So let’s keep watching. The truth will out. And while the Cardinals will miss Yadier Molina’s superior framing if it’s actually gone, they’re also 13-4 since Adam Wainwright’s last victory. And they’re 21-7 this season with Yadier Molina not hitting, either.