If history is any guide, Chiefs should pass on taking a QB at No. 23

KANSAS CITY, Mo. -- Admit it: You've already drawn the pictures in your head, awake or asleep. And you and your subconscious are in complete agreement that Johnny Manziel looks pretty, well -- pretty bitching in Kansas City Chiefs red.

And then you wake up.

Or maybe you don't.

Now the odds of Johnny Football, the Heisman Trophy winner, name-dropper, autograph-signer and bon vivant, still being on the board when John Dorsey and the Chiefs brain trust step up to the plate with pick No. 23 in the 2014 NFL Draft are somewhere between "slim" and "none." Although slim won't shut the hell up.

And the former Texas A&M quarterback/icon/pain-in-the-butt is a sub-6-foot-2 quarterback, which makes him "short," and with "short" signal-callers and NFL front offices, anything can happen. Drew Brees was supposed to be "too short" to make it as a front-line NFL quarterback; he slid to pick No. 32 in 2001. Eight Pro Bowls and a Super Bowl ring later, never mind.

Fact: Manziel is short. Also a fact: Manziel is a goof.

But as impressive as he's looked the last two falls on your television, trust us: The little dude is even more impressive up close, in the flesh, making your favorite defensive coordinator tear what's left of his hair out.

Johnny Football might not be as good as Russell Wilson was (and is), and he might have a fifth of Wilson's underrated smarts and instincts. But he's also got a stronger arm and faster feet than the Seahawks' young signal-caller; and under Aggies coach Kevin Sumlin, he's already been playing football at NFL speed, against near-NFL-caliber defenses in the Southeastern Conference.

The idea of the Chiefs looking at a "star"/franchise quarterback late in the first round, if a potential stud such as Manziel or Blake Bortles or Teddy Bridgewater is available, has been mooted before.

But Ian Rapoport of the NFL Network raised the stakes -- and some eyebrows -- when he posted this to his Twitter feed on Monday:

"Long-term options?"

"Aren't progressing well?"

Well, alrighty, then.

So: Smoke, truth, or just posturing?

In general, the louder a rumor is, the closer it is to draft weekend, the less likely it is to come off. NFL teams engage in all kinds of cloak-and-dagger theatrics in the spring, either to throw rival clubs off their particular scent, to fortify a bargaining position, or just to mess with a 24-7, Twitter-happy, the-ticker-never-sleeps media of the here and now.

The scuttlebutt from ProFootballTalk.com two weeks ago was that talks between the Chiefs and Big No. 11 were "slow," and the money being kicked around was in the $14-17-million-per-year range, which isn't out of left field, at least as today's bonkers quarterback market goes.

Although what the Chiefs would have to gain by suggesting to Smith -- even through indirect channels -- that he isn't essential to their future is nebulous, at best, and negligible, at worst. Based on a study by the Harvard Sports Analysis Collective in 2011, the Chiefs would need at least three statistical seasons comparable to the one they just got from Smith -- and maybe four -- to equal the production an NFL team can typically expect, over a career, from picks No. 34 and No. 56, which is what Dorsey gave up to get him on board in the first place.

Smith is coach Andy Reid's best option under center in 2014. Relative to what's out there, he's probably the Chiefs' best option in 2015 and 2016, too.

To recap: Louisville's Bridgewater had a lousy pro day, and his stock promptly plummeted from the sky like a S.H.I.E.L.D. helicarrier. Poor weight transfer, the experts whispered. Accuracy. Mechanics. Is he the next Wilson? Or the next Akili Smith?

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Blake Bortles is 6-5, 230 pounds, checks all the "cattle-stat" boxes, and has stellar vision in the pocket and the athleticism to extend plays. But dig deeper, and up pop some of the same red flags that are on Bridgewater's CV: accuracy concerns, arm strength, touch, mechanics.

Great reward, great risk. Roll them bones, and hope for the best.

But those who cannot remember the past are often condemned to repeat it. The gang at Harvard has posted some interesting treatises on NFL draft value in recent years; one essay, penned by Robert Bedetti in April 2012, compared the relative production of NFL positions based on players taken in the first round from 1980-2005.

For picks 17-32, the positions that provided the least amount of risk were, in order: defensive line, offensive line, secondary, wide receiver.

The riskiest, in order: quarterback, linebacker and tight end.

One year, Drew Brees. The next, Patrick Ramsey.

We get the civic angst. The Broncos flaunted John Elway for a generation. The Chargers sashayed from Brees to Philip Rivers. The Colts rolled from Peyton Manning to one year of garbage to Andrew Luck. And then Manning landed in Denver with plenty of miles left, thanks to Elway, who's back to his old habit of ruining Kansas City autumns, only this time from the front office.

And hey, you say, remember Aaron Rodgers? Dude was supposed to be the "product of a pass-happy system" and slid to pick No. 24 in 2005. Three more Pro Bowls and another Super Bowl ring later, who's laughing now?

Look, granted, there are exceptions to every rule. Except one: When it comes to investing big-time dollars in a big-time signal-caller, you better not freaking miss. Because you know those dreams you've been having about Manziel? If the reality doesn't match the hype, they'll quickly turn into the stuff of nightmares.

You can follow Sean Keeler on Twitter at @seankeeler or email him at seanmkeeler@gmail.com.