Houston Astros bullpen strong without big names Ken Rosenthal
NEW YORK — Think about if the Houston Astros had signed Andrew Miller last offseason. Or if they had traded for Aroldis Chapman or Craig Kimbrel in July. Think about how good their bullpen would be then.
Actually, don't bother.
The Astros' bullpen is among the game's best anyway — among the best even though their relievers' average fastball velocity is 90.6 mph, the lowest in the majors, according to Fangraphs.com.
The 'Stros aren't the Royals, rolling out Kelvin Herrera, Wade Davis and Greg Holland in the final three innings. Nor are they the Yankees, with their 1-2 punch of Dellin Betances and Miller.
So, how are they doing it?
The old-fashioned way. By executing pitches. And throwing strikes.
Monday night was an exception, as left-hander Oliver Perez issued three walks (one intentional) and threw a wild pitch in the ninth inning, leading to a bases-loaded sacrifice fly by Carlos Beltran off righty Chad Qualls for a 1-0 Yankees victory.
Before that, Astros relievers had boasted the second-lowest walk rate and fifth-best strikeout rate in the majors. And while their opponents' batting average on balls in play was a major-league low .255, that number wasn't simply the product of luck; the hard-hit percentage against them was the second-lowest in the majors.
Manager A.J. Hinch sat in his office at Yankee Stadium earlier Monday and rattled off the ways in which each of his top relievers is different — Luke Gregerson with his slider, Pat Neshek with his sidearm delivery, Will Harris with his rare cutter-curveball combination, Tony Sipp with his reverse splits for a lefty.
Then Hinch stopped and stated the common denominator.
"They don't walk people," he said. "We don't give extra runners. That attack mode with pretty good stuff and pretty good execution allows us to match them up pretty well."
Hinch said the relievers have "general" roles — when the Astros lead, he mostly goes Harris-Neshek-Gregerson in the final three innings, mixing and matching with Qualls and his lefties, Sipp and Perez. But because none of the relievers is an established late-inning monster — this, for example, is Gregerson's first year closing — Hinch said the roles are “in pencil.” In other words, he can manage however he wants, and the relievers are comfortable with it.
Virtually all of the Astros' top relievers passed through San Diego while Hinch was in the Padres' front office, and the first-year manager's familiarity with them helps. Bullpens are volatile, the Astros know it, and one rival scout wonders if they ultimately will be haunted by their lack of late-inning power, saying: "If they make the playoffs, it will get them." But hard-throwing rookie Vince Velasquez is part of the Astros' 'pen now, and one or more of their six current starters would be available in relief in the postseason.
So, while contenders such as the Dodgers and Rangers struggle with their 'pens, the Astros are in remarkably good shape. General manager Jeff Luhnow, after watching his bullpens rank 28th, 30th and 28th in opponents' OPS his first three seasons, hit on virtually every offseason move.
Luhnow said he likes variety in his bullpen, but the team's previous difficulties taught him to value strike-throwing above all else. As the GM put it Monday, exaggerating only slightly: "Nothing is worse than having a lead in the ninth and that first guy gets on base. He always scores. You always end up regretting it."
Miller, Luhnow's top free-agent target, turned down a reported four-year, $40 million offer from the Astros to accept a $36 million deal with the Yankees. Undaunted, Luhnow signed Gregerson and Neshek for a combined $31 million, enticing both with the promise of expanded late-inning responsibility.
Those moves made the biggest headlines, but the waiver claim of Harris from the Diamondbacks Nov. 3 proved the biggest coup. The Astros had waiver priority over every team but the Rangers after finishing with the second-worst record in the majors. Their poor standing in recent years also helped them land Sipp, who was granted his release by the Padres so he could sign a major-league deal with the Astros in May 2014, and Josh Fields, whom the 'Stros made the No. 1 pick of the 2012 Rule 5 draft.
Harris had an excellent season for the D-backs in 2013, but never quite recovered from a rough start in '14, prompting the team to place him on waivers in November. He was working out when the Astros called to inform him of their claim. Harris phoned his wife, Caroline, and asked her: "If you could pick anywhere for me to play, where would it be?" Caroline responded, "Houston." The Harrises are from Slidell, La., a four-hour drive away.
The move proved beneficial in every way. Harris, using a revised grip on his breaking ball at the suggestion of pitching coach Brent Strom and bullpen coach Craig Bjornson, had a 0.87 ERA and .420 opponents' OPS before the All-Star Game; Hinch still says he should have been named to the AL squad. While Harris' numbers since then are less gaudy, he remains quite effective.
The Astros indeed explored trades for Chapman and Kimbrel in late July — Harris was slowing down, Qualls had missed time with a pinched nerve in his neck, Gregerson had a rough outing just before the deadline. Luhnow said: "You start dreaming of a starter coming out in the sixth and having no issues at all the rest of the game."
As it turned out, the Astros traded for center fielder Carlos Gomez and righty Mike Fiers, and Monday night's mini-meltdown aside, the bullpen has been mostly brilliant in August. For the season, all of the leading sabermetric indicators — FIP, xFIP, WAR — point to the 'pen's strength.
No less an authority than Miller is impressed by the team he spurned.
"They're onto something over there," Miller said of the Astros. "I didn't think it would click this quickly. Not because I thought it would take time to implement. I just thought they had a bunch of young guys. But these guys are playing not above their head, but beyond their years. They're a good team."
With a good bullpen. Even lacking a Miller, Kimbrel or Chapman.