Heisman Forecast: Where, exactly, did all the QBs go?
Given the tend the Heisman Trophy has been in this millennium, with 13 of its 14 winners being quarterbacks, this race's nascent days seem like a bizzaro world.
Basically, the question has become, where did all the quarterbacks go?
TCU's Trevone Boykin, the preseason favorite, has been strong, but not dominant, ranking 18th in total offense at 314.5 yards per game, 40 less than a year ago. You have to go to USC's Cody Kessler, who is 12th in passing yards, to find a player that was on most lists of early contenders and of those 11 players ahead of Kessler, just two of them -- Baylor's Seth Russell and Oklahoma State's Mason Rudolph -- play for Top 25 teams.
Meanwhile, running backs have moved to the forefront in the form of Florida State's Dalvin Cook (422 yards), Georgia's Nick Chubb (309), Alabama's Derrick Henry (243), Ohio State's Ezekiel Elliott (223) and LSU's Leonard Fournette (159).
Granted, quarterbacks have had their moments. But as great as Michigan State's Connor Cook was against Oregon, his numbers at this point aren't Heisman worthy, with his 228 yards per game way off the 390-plus the last five winners have averaged. Then there is UCLA's Josh Rosen (574 yards and four touchdowns), who is facing one of the last hurdles for winners as true freshman.
The spotlight will continue to be on a deep group of runners this week with two contenders facing defining matchups as Fournette and No. 13 LSU take on No. 18 Auburn and Henry and the second-ranked Crimson Tide meet No. 15 Ole Miss.
Passers will get their chance, and considering just one has finished second in the past four votes, the odds are still favoring another QB being crowned December in Times Square, but entering Week 3 the Heisman race is very much the playground of running backs.
Before we get to the players that are poised to rise and fall this week, here's the standings in this voter's virtual ballot.
Had the Tigers played McNeese State in Week 1, Fournette's numbers would likely be much more impressive when stacked against the other leading backs. That being said, he was thoroughly impressive in running over Mississippi State to the tune of 28 carries for 159 yards and three touchdowns. He and the Bayou Bengals host No. 18 Auburn, which is 96th against the rush, allowing nearly 200 yards per game. The Tigers at least know they held Fournette in check last year (10 carries for 42 yards) and could return their top two defensive players in end Carl Lawson and Tray Matthews, who were both injured in the opener against Louisville, but they were also there when the Cardinals ran for 238 yards. Fournette is primed to come up big in this week.
The race's leader took advantage of a big stage once, racking up 147 yards and three scores against Wisconsin and now he has another opportunity as the Crimson Tide meet the Rebels at Bryant-Denny Stadium. Henry was held in check by the Land Shark D last year in Oxford with just 37 yards on 17 carries, but Ole Miss has been lackluster against the rush so far. It allowed 116 yards against UT Martin and Fresno State had 163 on the ground. Granted, Hugh Freeze's backups were heavily involved in those efforts, but the situation is set up for Henry to make a major statement as Alabama plays the first of three ranked opponents in the next five games.
Watson didn't miss his most explosive target -- Mike Williams, who is out indefinitely with a neck injury -- against Appalachian State in throwing for 248 yards and three touchdowns and given what we've seen from Louisville's defense, he may not have much trouble Thursday night, either. The Cardinals are 76th in pass efficiency D (125.9), tied for 52nd in yards allowed (186.5) and come in 104th vs. the rush (125.9). Watson hasn't run much in the early goings, with 11 attempts so far, but that figures to change as he's set up to have a monster night in primetime in Cardinal Stadium.
It was only two weeks ago that Johnson was being touted -- in this space and many others -- as a vast improvement over predecessor Nick Marshall due to an arm that could add a more vertical dimension to Auburn's offense. It hasn't happened. The junior has been beyond shaky with five interceptions to go with his three TD passes and struggled to help the Tiger establish any offensive rhythm in Week 2's survival of Jacksonville State. Now he has to face arguably the SEC's best pass defense on the road. It doesn't bode well for Johnson, who may have completely played his way out of the race if he doesn't turn things around in a hurry.
As further detailed here, Nkemdiche going from an antagonist's pick to an actual contender hinges not just on his exploits along the Rebels' defensive line, but that along with the kind of offensive contributions he had in Weeks 1 and 2. Against the No. 2 Crimson Tide this week in Tuscaloosa, it would be surprising to see Freeze let his All-American DT moonlight, at least to the level he did vs. UT Martin and Fresno State. If the Forecaster's wrong, then expect the buzz surrounding Nkemdiche to truly grow, but here's thinking he'll have enough to do in trying to help slow down Henry to worry about playing at fullback too.
He of the single-game rushing record a year ago -- 427 yards vs. Kansas -- has shown versatility with five catches through two games after having 15 in his freshman season. He hasn't been the same factor in the running game, though, with 111 yards on 34 carries. Blame a revamped offensive line or the Sooners' desire to spread the ball around in new O.C.'s Lincoln Riley's scheme, but Perine had 25 or more carries six times in 2014 and is averaging 17 so far this year. He should have his way with Tulsa's 119th-ranked rush defense (262 yards per game), but it doesn't look like he'll be enough of a workhorse to stay in the hunt.
Follow Cory McCartney on Twitter @coryjmccartney