Heisman Forecast: What may be standing in way of Stanford's McCaffrey
In terms of overall impact, Christian McCaffrey has no equal this season, with stats that on a gaudiness scale would hover somewhere around Liberace level.
No. 9 Stanford's sports information department has dubbed it #WildCaff for your Twitter usage as the sophomore running back's 2,807 yards of all-purpose production through 11 games has him challenging Barry Sanders' 1988 record of 3,250.
Add in that McCaffrey has opportunity this weekend against No. 6 Notre Dame to make a major statement and he becomes a serious threat to challenge for the school's first Heisman Trophy since Jim Plunkett in 1970.
It's highly unlikely that McCaffrey loses that all-purpose crown, as his 255.2 yards per are nearly 50 yards more than second-place Tyler Ervin of San Jose State, but that title -- or even leading the major conferences in that department -- hasn't been a precursor to a Heisman of late.
That wasn't always the case, though, as during the Age of the Running Back, from 1973-83 when the position won the award 11 straight years, the nation's leader in all-purpose yards hoisted the Heisman eight times. While there was a resurgence in the mid-1990s, as Rashaan Salaam (1994) was followed by three winners in five years to hold that statistical crown.
But since then, just one Heisman winner has the nation in all-purpose yards, Reggie Bush in 2005 and in the last nine years no one has finished higher than second, which came via Melvin Gordon last season.
McCaffrey's case, though, is a special one considering the sheer absurdity of what he's doing in challenging Sanders' single-season record. He would need a combined 444 yards against the Fighting Irish's 40th-ranked defense, which is giving up 357 yards per, and either USC (69th at 403.0 ypg) or UCLA (61st at 392.0) per) in the Pac-12 Championship Game.
Would that record be enough to get around the presumptive leader in Derrick Henry, who is carrying No. 2 Alabama's offense toward a place in the College Football Playoff?
With Bush's win vacated, it's technically been since Ricky Williams in 1988 since the all-purpose leader won the Heisman, and with history in sight, McCaffrey is at least in position to mount a serious challenge over the next two weeks.
Before we look at the players poised to rise and fall this week, here is the Forecaster's latest cyber ballot:
1. Derrick Henry, RB Alabama, Jr.
2. Deshaun Watson, QB Clemson, Soph.
3. Christian McCaffrey, RB Stanford, Soph.
ON THE RISE
1. Baker Mayfield, QB Oklahoma, Jr.
Back in late September, the Forecaster told you why Mayfield could be the next out-of-nowhere winner. The numbers against TCU -- he threw for 127 yards and zero scores and ran for 42 and no TDs -- were't spectacular, but he also took a shot to the head in the second quarter and gave way to former starter Trevor Knight. Mayfield, the FBS leader in pass efficiency at 180.7, has helped the Sooners break into the top four in the latest CFP rankings and can all but stamp a ticket to the ceremony should he get back to the 371 yards he averaged in the three games before the Horned Frogs.
2. Deshaun Watson, QB Clemson, Soph.
So, South Carolina is far worse than anyone could have imagined, going 3-8 and 1-7 in the SEC and prompted Steve Spurrier to move on. But the Gamecocks vs. Clemson is still a heated rivalry in the Palmetto State and after watching South Carolina win for five straight years, the Tigers have an opportunity to blow the doors off the Gamecocks in Williams-Brice Stadium. In 2003, Clemson rolled 63-17 in Columbia, and given the way Watson has been playing, with no fewer than 387 yards of of offense the past four weeks, he is primed to take full advantage of the stage heading into the ACC Championship Game clash with No. 14 North Carolina.
3. Keenan Reynolds, QB Navy, Sr.
Here's the main issue with the Heisman voting process: it has Army and Navy players facing a major disadvantage. The two service academies play each other on the day of the ceremony, and with votes due the Monday before, the likes of Reynolds have one less opportunity to impress voters than the other contenders. He has already broken Napoleon McCallum's Midshipmen record for most rushing yards in a career and is just one TD behind Monte Ball's NCAA record of 83 in a career. Had Houston not tumbled out of the CFP rankings it would have been a strong stage for Reynolds, but as it stands he can help get No. 15 Navy into the American title game and either the Chick-fil-A Peach Bowl or Fiesta Bowl as the highest Group of Five champ.
FALL GUYS
1. Ezekiel Elliott, RB Ohio State, Jr.
So he and coach Urban Meyer don't see eye to eye on Elliott's outburst after the loss to Michigan State. But the fact is the lack of opportunities dealt a serious blow to the running back's trophy chase. It ended his 15-game streak of at least 100 yards, a number that, should he have it against the Spartans would have kept him in the race. Now the pressure is on as the Buckeyes take on Michigan and the nation's fourth-ranked rushing defense (100.2 per game). He is still a threat to reach New York, but the margin of error for Elliott is now extremely thin.
2. Dalvin Cook, RB Florida State, Soph.
Based upon the electric factor, there may not be a better player in the nation. That Cook is third in FBS in rushing yards per game (147.5) despite being banged up and getting just two carries against Wake Forest is stunning, but he's been that impressive when he can stay on the field. Boston College is the only team to truly hold him in check, limiting Cook to 54 yards on 15 carries, and Florida is well positioned to do the same. The Gators rank eighth against the rush (108.3) and while they were burned by LSU's Leonard Fournette for 180 yards and Vanderbilt's Ralph Webb (118), only Alabama (77.8) has been better against SEC opponents than the Gators' 108.2.
3. Corey Coleman, WR Baylor, Jr.
He's holding onto a spot in the latest odds by a thread after being held to 77 yards and zero touchdowns on five carries by Oklahoma State. That was Coleman's second straight game without a score and consecutive games without at least 100 yards receiving. This week's opponent, TCU, has struggled against the pass, ranking 71st, but it may be too difficult for Coleman to make up for the way his stock has taken a hit these past two games.
Follow Cory McCartney on Twitter @coryjmccartney