Heisman Forecast: Manziel-Winston debate at forefront

It can be seen as the beauty of the award or what makes it so maddening
to follow, but the past is everything when it comes to the Heisman
Trophy. It's the basis by which races are scrutinized and players'
prospects held up or cast aside.

With less than four
weeks to go in this chase history will loom large, because we voters
could be forced to decide which bit of it we want to repeat
itself.

Florida State's Jameis Winston has positioned
himself to become the second redshirt freshman winner in as many years.
Then there's the growing possibility that Texas A&M's Johnny
Manziel could do the seemingly impossible and join Archie Griffin as the
only-time recipients.

There's also the bids to
follow history with Baylor's Bryce Petty and Alabama's AJ McCarron, who
are both trying to deliver their school's second all-time wins and both
of who remain major factors in this race (so too is Oregon's Marcus
Mariota, though he may have too much ground to make up now, which we'll
discuss later).

But the debate between Winston (the
current leader) and Manziel (the defending winner) is too juicy and too
meaningful to ignore right now.

It also cuts to the
core of the award, answering a question that's all about interpretation:
what does "the outstanding college football player whose performance
best exhibits the pursuit of excellence with integrity" mean to voters
right now?

*From this voter's perspective, John
Heisman gave in to the Downtown Athletic Club's plan to single out an
individual player -- and have his name grace it -- believing it was a
testament to the team to have a player win. It's about being truly
transcendent, and with that approach in mind is how I've filled out my
ballot over the years.

If statistics are the defining
factor, the race is over.

Manziel is second in the
nation at 392.4 yards per game, he's on pace for more passing yards than
he had in his winning season (3,706) and his 31 touchdowns are already
an increase over last year's 26. No player has scored more points (234)
and he's third in pass efficiency (186.9). There's little denying he's
college football's most entertaining and most dominant player. If you
were shelling out your last dime to see someone play live, you just
know Manziel would be worth
it.

But ultimately, what has come of Manziel's gaudy
stats? Was he able to get A&M into the title race and keep it
there? Blame his defense, but part of winning a Heisman is taking a team
and lifting it to the next level, Winston is the surest
bet.

The Seminole has thrown for 2,661 yards and an
ACC freshman record 26 TDs, while also running for 157 yards and three
scores and sits second in the nation in efficiency (192.2) and in no
small part to Winston's play, Florida State is in line to play for a
national championship.

While the last six years have
seen three players who did not make BCS bowls claim the award in Tim
Tebow (2007), Robert Griffin III ('11) and Manziel, this postseason
system has overwhelmingly been ruled by BCS-bound players, winning 11
times (counting Reggie Bush's vacated victory) in 15
years.

Tebow, Griffin and Manziel can be seen as
moving toward awarding the best player and not the top choice on a team
that's been at the forefront of the seasons' narrative, but those wins
were as much about those seasons as the players' greatness.


Tebow and Griffin took the vote in years when a
player on a title-game team didn't make the top two and Manziel was
competing with a strictly defensive player (Notre Dame's Manti Te'o),
which has never won.

With a clear and impressive
contender on a team in the BCS title hunt -- a perspective that could
boost McCarron and Petty down the stretch should others falter --
Winston is the one with history on his side.

That's a
notion that a year ago would have seem blasphemous for a redshirt
freshman and there in lies the irony of this race for Manziel. If it's
Winston that blocks him from trophy No. 2, it will be due to Johnny
Football blazing that trail for him.

Before we look
at the players who are rising and falling in this race, here's a look at
how the contenders would stack up if the voting were to take place
today:

1. Jameis Winston, QB Florida State,
RS Fr.
2. Johnny Manziel, QB Texas A&M, RS
Soph.
3. Marcus Mariota, QB Oregon, RS
Soph.










McCarron opened his
November push in efficient, though not staggering fashion, throwing for
179 yards to go with three TDs in the 21-point romp of LSU. In a week in
which Mariota stumbled and Winston faced a lackluster opponent (Wake
Forest), McCarron didn't own the spotlight, but he still helped keep the
Crimson Tide in line for the title game, which is the backbone of his
campaign. Also working in his favor is that with Auburn continuing its
impressive turnaround, Alabama could wind up with a top-10 opponent in
the Iron Bowl; no other candidate faces an opponent ranked higher than
the No. 7 Tigers in the final weeks of the regular season.




He kicked off a
pivotal three-game stretch for his candidacy, and the Bears' title
hopes, by totaling five TDs vs. Oklahoma (three passing and two rushing)
despite his lowest yardage total of the season (249). Petty took over
the game, but it wasn't exactly the Heisman Moment his campaign needs.
Still, he remains the nation's most efficient passer (210.6) and has two
ranked opponents remaining -- No. 12 Oklahoma State and No. 23 Texas --
against which to further state his case. As the Bears remain
undefeated, Petty will continue to trend upward.




He's now run for
at least 100 yards in 12 consecutive games, including eight this season
in running for 152.6 rushing yards per game (second in FBS) and 1,221
yards (fourth). This week he should only build on those numbers, as
he'll face FBS' 83rd-ranked rush defense in Washington State, which
already allowed 192 yards to Oregon's Byron Marshall. The Wildcats are
basically out of the Pac-12 South race and chance are Carey's season
will end Nov. 30, more than a week before votes are due, denying him a
final chance to impress pollsters. But if a running back is going to be a
factor, it looks to be Carey.





On a stage in which he
could have laid claim to the trophy, Mariota had his worst game of the
season. Stanford held him to minus-16 yards rushing, the first time in
his Ducks career that he had finished in negative yards, and he also
fumbled in the loss. Without some serious help from the Cardinal's
upcoming opponents, Oregon won't play for a Pac-12 crown, hurting
Mariota's chance of a comeback, as they won't face a ranked opponent the
rest of the season. If there is one thing working in his favor, it may
be the logjam of players in other voting regions. Manziel has Petty in
the Southwest, while the South is the deepest of all regions, boasting
Winston, McCarron and Louisville's Teddy Bridgewater and Manziel, in
playing in the SEC, will certainly be a factor with that voting
populace. But the reality is that Mariota has gone from the clear
favorite to a long shot.



He was already fighting
for attention while Petty put up big numbers amid the Bears' run up the
rankings, then Seastrunk saw his campaign come to a screeching halt in
the biggest game in program history. He suffered a groin injury in the
first half against Oklahoma and while he returned, he ended the night
with 19 yards on six carries. Further dropping his stock, third-string
tailback Shock Linwood impressed with Seastrunk sidelined, racking up
182 yards on 23 carries, including 97 after contact. Ultimately, it was
only hurting Baylor having two contenders considering in the last 30
years, only one recognized winner, Nebraska's Mike Rozier (1983), has
had a teammate finish in the top five. The Bears needed a single
candidate to emerge and it's clearly Petty.



In two weeks he's gone
from a budding contender in a Midwest voting region ripe for the taking
to all but out of the race. Dance
partner James White
has overshadowed Gordon of
late, running for 279 and four scores the last two games, while Gordon
has 148 yards and no TDs. Once the nation's leader in rushing yards and
yards per carry, he's now slipped to sixth and fourth, respectively, in
those categories with 1,160 yards and an 8.1 average. Any chance of
getting New York has passed him by.