Heisman Forecast: Elimination game awaits Chubb, Henry in Athens

Just four weeks into the season, Leonard Fournette seems poised to take all the drama out of this Heisman Trophy race.

Granted, it seems like an insane statement, but LSU's rampaging running back leads the nation at 210.3 yards per game and has 387 in two games vs. Top-25 teams. That figure is 113 more than anyone else vs. ranked opponents.

He's just been that good, and a year after Marcus Mariota delivered Oregon its first victor in a landslide -- it that was the third-highest in history in terms of percentage of possible points, with his 90.9 trailing only Reggie Busch's since vacated 2005 win (91.7) and Troy Smith a year later (91.6) -- Fournette playing at this level could challenge those figures.

That is unless he falters or someone else begins to steal the spotlight from him.

The latter could happen Saturday in Athens in what amounts to a Heisman elimination game between No. 13 Alabama's Derrick Henry and No. 8 Georgia's Nick Chubb.

Those fellow SEC running backs have been spectacular in their own right, with Chubb's 149.8 yards per game ranking sixth in FBS, while Henry has games of 147 yards (Wisconsin) and 127 (Ole Miss) against ranked teams.

Henry will get a shot at Fournette and the Tigers on Nov. 7 and could face Chubb and Co. in Atlanta in December in a potential SEC Championship Game class. Those matchups, though, are a ways off, and neither can afford to slip as Henry's Crimson Tide already have a loss to the Rebels and Chubb's Bulldogs face just one more current Top-25 team, No. 25 Florida, the rest of the regular season.

No one is ruling out the field, or TCU's Trevone Boykin, who is second in FBS in total offense (415.0), but the opportunity is there for Chubb and Henry, especially with Fournette facing Eastern Michigan and facing just one ranked team -- the Gators -- before November.

Fournette has set the bar, now everyone else has to take advantage of what chances they have before the chasm between him and every other contender grows even wider.

Before the Forecaster unveils this week's riser and sliders in the race, here's how things stand with this virtual ballot.

1. Leonard Fournette, RB LSU, Soph.
2. Trevone Boykin, QB TCU, RS Sr.
3. Nick Chubb, RB Georgia, Soph.

ON THE RISE

1. Deshaun Watson, QB Clemson, Soph.

The preseason ACC Player of the Year has been great, but not spectacular in delivering 244.7 yards per game of total offense -- which ranks 46th in FBS -- and in the one game in which he took on a Power 5 team (Louisville), Watson threw two interceptions to go along with his two TDs. But of note in that game was that Dabo Swinney allowed his QB to run more, with 12 carries, which marked just the fourth time in his career he had more than 10 in a game. The health of Clemson's top playmaker, who had his injury issues as a freshman, certainly played a part in limiting those additional hits against the likes of Wofford and Appalachian State. In a game that can both boost both the Tigers' playoff hopes and Watson's chances in this race, expect his legs to be a major factor.

2. Baker Mayfield, QB Oklahoma, Jr.

Amazingly, Mayfield isn't even on the latest round of Heisman odds despite the fact that only Bowling Green's Matt Johnson (469.0) and Boykin are supplying more yards than the Sooner's 400.3. Mayfield can help to build his case this weekend against No. 23 West Virginia, a team that is giving up just 154 yards per through the air (17th), but so far has taken on Georgia Southern, Liberty and 2-2 Maryland. It will likely take coming up big in those final three games vs. No. 5 Baylor, No. 4 TCU and 20th-ranked Oklahoma State to truly make his candidacy, but Mayfield may be the most overlooked passer in this race right now.

3. Paul Perkins, RB UCLA, RS Jr.

Speaking of not getting enough attention, Perkins led the Pac-12 in rushing a season ago and is 10th in the nation this year with 514 yards and six touchdowns, but remains very much an afterthought. While he's buried behind Fournette, Chubb, Henry and the likes at his own position, trails QB Cody Kessler of USC in his own town and QB Josh Rosen among Bruins, Perkins racked up 304 yards and four TDs the past two weeks in victories over No. 19 BYU and No. 16 Arizona. UCLA faces the other Grand Canyon State team this week and Arizona State has been bad against the rush, allowing 180.5 ypg. That figures to help Perkins pad his stats with clashes against No. 18 Stanford and No. 24 Cal in the following weeks, games that have the potential to turn him into the West Coast's best chance.

FALL GUYS

1. Nick Chubb, RB Georgia, Soph.

The Crimson Tide have allowed just 56.8 yards per game on the ground, which ranks fourth in FBS. It's been 17 regular-season games -- dating back to Auburn's Tre Mason in the 2013 Iron Bowl -- since Alabama gave up 100 yards to any back. Georgia could change that, and Chubb might extend his school-record run of 100-yard rushing games, but the thought here is Henry does enough to help Alabama emerge with the win and the spot behind Fournette in the Heisman pecking order.

2. Dak Prescott, QB Mississippi State, RS Sr.

A loss to LSU on Sept. 12, one in which he still threw for 335 yards and a touchdown, delivered a blow to Prescott's hopes, but he remains a threat in the latest odds. The reality is, Prescott is hanging by a thread and that may well come to a close against defensive end Myles Garrett -- the choice for those seeking a pure defender to get behind -- and No. 14 Texas A&M. A year ago, Prescott totaled 345 yards and five scores in a win over the Aggies, but this is a vast improved D under new coordinator John Chavis.

3. C.J. Prosise, RB Notre Dame, Sr.

Tarean Folston's season-ending knee injury provided Prosise a larger role and he's taken full advantage, rattling off games of 155 yards (Virginia), 198 (No. 14 Georgia Tech) and 149 (UMass) in the last three weeks and is sitting fifth in the country in yards per at 150. He has yet to see a defense as stingy as No. 12 Clemson's, though, which in a win over Louisville the last time out, gave up just 19 yards on the ground.

Follow Cory McCartney on Twitter @coryjmccartney