Greg Bird and cautionary tales

The impact of first baseman Greg Bird on the New York Yankees in 2015 cannot be understated. He has filled a huge void left by an injured Mark Teixeira at a time when the Yankees have needed it the most.

There is another first baseman in the AL East who is also making some noise as a rookie and that's the Red Sox's Travis Shaw. Both Shaw and Bird are taking advantage of newfound opportunities with their teams in 2015. Both Shaw and Bird might not have a position to play in 2016.

In New York, Teixeira will be back for 2016, as will Alex Rodriguez and Brian McCann, who need those DH at-bats. In Boston, the word is Hanley Ramirez will be the Sox's first baseman in 2016 and beyond while David Ortiz will continue to be the greatest DH we have ever seen. Both clubs have projected crowded outfields for next season.

So where can Bird and Shaw find at-bats? We asked that very question on Wednesday night's MLB "WhipAround" on FS1. Our new analyst and 16-year MLB veteran Todd Zeile had an interesting take. Both Bird and Shaw were late season callups, so aren'€™t we getting ahead of ourselves with the assumption that these guys will continue to hit like this? As we have seen so many times in the past, the league will adjust to them and then the onus is on these hitters to see if they can stick as everyday major leaguers.

It was a great point. I was certainly guilty of jumping the gun and thinking that who these guys have been in their first go around is who they will be in their entire careers.

History has certainly provided us with many instances of when it hasn't worked out. Using Bird's games played to date (35), we see some examples of why we should temper expectations after success through a player's first 35 games.

* Shaw is up to 54 games played, 11 HR, .890OPS.

I am not saying that Bird or Shaw will turn to pumpkins next April. In fact, I am hoping for the opposite, as they continue to add to the exciting list of good young players we have seen in 2015. What I am saying is that perhaps we, myself included, should not be in such a hurry to figure out where these players fit next season with such a small sample of success.

There are, of course, success stories. Of the 27 players with 10 or more home runs through their first 35 career games, Wally Joyner (35.7 bWAR), Albert Pujols (99.0), Orlando Cepeda (50.3) and Willie McCovey (64.4) had terrific careers. 

I'm sure the Yankees and Red Sox would be happy with at least somewhere in between.