Goodbye, Rays

Not that it's probably going to wind up seeming this way, but you might forgive a Tampa Bay Rays fan for thinking Wednesday night's game in Baltimore was THE GAME, the one that determined the outcome of the 2015 season.

In the first inning, Steve Pearce -- nobody's idea of a Gold Glove outfielder, last time I checked -- stole a solo homer from Brandon Guyer:

Sure, that was just the first inning and you can't figure something that happens in the first inning will determine the outcome of a game.

It was scoreless until the top of the third, when the Rays went ahead 4-0. Their win expectancy at that point was 92 percent!

Just a few minutes later the score was 4-4 and that 92 percent had become 49 percent. Oops.

But the Rays' bullpen held and the Orioles' didn't. Tampa Bay went ahead 5-4 in the sixth, and 6-4 in the ninth when Evan Longoria homered for the second time in the game.

So heading into the bottom of the ninth, the Rays had their closer (Brad Boxberger) on the mound and another 92-percent chance of winning.

Then Matt Wieters led off with a walk, and then this happened. Which made it 6-6, where it stayed until this happened:

The Rays have been my dark-horse pick for the second wild card, just because I thought they might pitch exceptionally well in September. Well, they still might. But it won't matter, because Wednesday night they fell 4X games out, with three teams ahead of them.

They've obviously still got an outside shot. But they'd have a better shot if they hadn't let 92 percent get away from them. Twice.