Final thoughts: One-and-done is name of the game

NEWARK, N.J. - Leftover notes, quotes and thoughts as the final countdown to OSU-Kentucky begins.

One and done? It's the nature of the NCAA Tournament, and when it comes to the NBA it's the topic du jour.

1. I really think this is a Final Four quality regional, and I also thought the Anaheim regional was almost as good. That produced one really good, close game and one very surprising result. A few miles from here, over at the Ohio State hotel, Arizona making Duke look flat-footed in the second half probably qualifies as an alarming result. The Buckeyes are favored and confident, but Kentucky is scary. Even John Calipari admitted yesterday that he has no idea what to expect from his young team, which is a pretty good indicator that nobody knows. I do know that Kentucky is capable of beating Ohio State because it's a lot like Ohio State -- long, athletic, good on defense, good from behind the 3-point line. As a sidebar, how about that Arizona dunk show in the second half? Wow. But anyway, I'll walk over to the Prudential Center tonight thinking Ohio State will win because Ohio State is the best team in the country. But I won't be totally surprised by any result in either game here tonight. It should be good basketball.

2. The big point of discussion here is the freshmen who headline this regional and the possibility of most of them leaving for the NBA after the season. Calipari lost a record four of them to the NBA Draft last year, and he's replaced them with three freshmen starters, two of whom look like lottery picks as soon as this June. North Carolina has a potential top-3 pick in freshman Harrison Barnes and starts two freshmen, two sophomores and a junior. Add Jared Sullinger and, possibly Willam Buford, and you've got as many as nine guys who could be top-15 picks in the next 15 months, if not three months from now. The NBA's labor issues could affect many decisions, and Calipari acknowledged yesterday the chance a rule will pass requiring guys to play two years in college before going to the NBA. That would be just fine with Calipari, even if he loses Brandon Knight and Terrence Jones this year, because he has four more lottery picks coming in as freshmen next year. Keeping those guys for two years might actually yield a national title.

3. Will Calipari's philosophy of reloading with young, NBA-bound guys every year ever result in winning it? Time will tell. He was pretty open about it yesterday, and every coach will say -- both Thad Matta and North Carolina's Roy Williams said it this week in different ways -- that it's their job to keep recruiting the very best players and see what happens from there. Here's Calipari: If we do our job and (the players) do their jobs and they all leave every year, if I'm putting out five pros a year, I'll get whoever I want to recruit. They'll all want to come to us. I don't think that's going to happen but last year was the first time it happened. But (if it did), I'd be happy." Here's Matta on the subject, from early in the week: "So much depends on what you have. The first year (Calipari) got the job in the spring and went out and took the best of the best, and they all left after one year. I don't know if these three freshmen are one and done, but I do know you want to get the best players. All coaches are the same in that regard."

4. More Matta: "Is (that a realistic way to win it all)? I don't know. Time is probably going to have to play itself out to see. I know this: experience helps. There's no question that having guys who have been through it and can give leadership examples to younger guys helps." Williams, whose UNC team faces a Marquette team that has five former junior college players on its roster, said "we're all coaching junior college-length players because we know the good ones won't be around long. In seven years at Carolina I've lost eight guys to the NBA early. We're coaching them for two years and they're gone." Williams said he believes the teams best equipped to survive in the NCAA Tournament are the ones "that have a little more experience" and he pointed out that even the '86 Louisville team with Pervis Ellison and the '03 Syracuse team with Carmelo Anthony, the only teams ever to win the national title with freshmen named the tournament's Most Outstanding Player, had upperclassmen help. "The Fab Five never got over the hump," Williams said. "Most of the time the teams that get to the Final Four and win are the teams that have a little more experience."

5. Ohio State truly believes its experience will come in handy tonight, in many ways. With David Lighty giving up three inches to Jones, it might have to. If Kentucky senior Josh Harrellson can keep Sullinger off the glass, well, that would be an entirely new challenge for the Buckeyes. "I've already told my veteran players that it's you against their veterans," Calipari said. "It's our three vets vs their four vets. We'll see. I don't know what to expect from my guys. We're so young, but we're playing well. And that doesn't matter because it's one game and we're playing an opponent that's really, really good. If i had some veterans like Ohio State had because Craft and Sullinger, they're really good, but they're with these veterans. My veterans are inexperienced, but what if they all come back? Now we'd have experience to go with the young guys and you're fine. That's what happened in Memphis. We had experienced guys and then Derrick Rose came in and we won a bunch." If the Buckeyes do lose this weekend, Sullinger's stay-or-go status immediately becomes the story. Ditto Buford. But nobody in the Ohio state locker room is thinking like that, and that maturity could be a big factor this weekend.

My guess? Experience carries the day. Ohio State 77, Kentucky 70

See you after the game.