Fantasy Fox: Real-time mocks at No. 10 slot
As a lark on Monday, I executed three simultaneous mock drafts, holding the No. 10 slot in all three leagues (12-teamers).
Adding to the degree of difficulty, I answered a slew of reader Tweets during the blitz, while attempting to wrap my head around Kyle Lohse agreeing to terms with the Brewers ... and Edinson Volquez — not Clayton Richard — drawing the Opening Day start for the Padres.
For good measure, I also wouldn't allow myself to "queue" any players before selecting, as a means of heightening the anxiety one might feel when they're distracted — or ill-prepared — for a draft.
Experienced drafter or not, no one ever gets used to the haunting beep sound of "10, 9, 8, 7 ..." before making a selection.
Here are the results from the three mocks:
Round 1
Draft #1 — 1B Joey Votto, Reds
Draft #2 — 1B Joey Votto, Reds
Draft #3 — 1B Prince Fielder, Tigers
Breakdown: There is zero excuse for Joey Votto falling to No. 10 in any draft, short of AL-only leagues. In limited action last year (knee injury), he posted two months of .355-or-higher batting, two months of six homers and four months of an OBP at .439 or higher. He also had few peers in the revealing categories of K-BB ratio (84-95), slugging (.567) and OPS (1.041).
Regarding Fielder, he may be a one- or two-slot reach at the 10 spot; but there are two other realities here: You can never have enough high-end corner infielders with power ... and Fielder probably wouldn't have been available in Round 2 (15th overall).
Round 2
Draft #1 — OF Josh Hamilton, Angels
Draft #2 — OF Josh Hamilton, Angels
Draft #3 — OF Josh Hamilton, Angels
Breakdown: Hamilton ranks as my No. 5 outfielder, No. 8 hitter and No. 10 overall asset, so he makes perfect sense with the 15th pick.
From a splits perspective in 2012, Hamilton had three batting months of .310 or higher, four OBP months of .355 or higher and four slugging months of .575 or higher. Heading into his age-32 campaign, Hamilton remains a viable candidate for 40 homers.
Round 3
Draft #1 — 1B Edwin Encarnacion, Blue Jays
Draft #2 — SP Jered Weaver, Angels
Draft #3 — 1B Adrian Gonzalez, Dodgers
Breakdown: It's ambitious to think Encarnacion can replicate last year's stellar marks (42 HR, 110 RBI, 93 runs, 13 steals) ... but for No. 34 overall, he's worth the gamble. Splits-wise, E-5 posted three months of .300-or-higher batting, five months of six-plus homers/17 RBI and six months of a slugging rate comfortably north of .500.
Of his 30 starts last season, Jered Weaver posted nine full outings of zero runs allowed ... and five others of one run. The Angels ace also won nine straight appearances from June 20 to Aug. 6, yielding three runs or less eight times.
Round 4
Draft #1 — SS Starlin Castro, Cubs
Draft #2 — OF Matt Holliday, Cardinals
Draft #3 — OF Adam Jones, Orioles
Round 5
Draft #1 — 2B Jason Kipnis, Indians
Draft #2 — 2B Jason Kipnis, Indians
Draft #3 — SP Chris Sale, White Sox
Breakdown: From May 12 to June 9 last year, covering six starts and 62.1 innings, Chris Sale enjoyed a 5-0 mark, 0.98 ERA, 0.71 WHIP and 43-7 K-BB ratio. In that span, he also ranked second in wins, third in ERA, fourth in K/BB ratio, second in opponents' batting average (.150) and second in WHIP among starting pitchers.
As for Kipnis, he has the reasonable capacity for 23 homers, 90 RBI, 90 runs and 35 steals — numbers that would far exceed his pre-draft value in the late 50s. This time next March, he'll likely be slotted in the 30s.
Round 6
Draft #1 — 1B Paul Goldschmidt, Diamondbacks
Draft #2 — 2B Aaron Hill, Diamondbacks
Draft #3 — SP Max Scherzer, Tigers
Breakdown: I probably could have waited another round to land Max Scherzer in Draft #3. For whatever reason, fantasy owners haven't completely warmed to his substantial progress from last season (16-7, 3.74 ERA, 1.27 WHIP, 231/60 K-BB) ... making him the perfect No. 3 starter in 12-team leagues.
From Aug. 10 to Sept. 12, Scherzer went 6-0, with a 1.29 ERA, 0.88 WHIP and 58/9 K-BB ratio.
Round 7
Draft #1 — OF Alex Gordon, Royals
Draft #2 — OF Alex Gordon, Royals
Draft #3 — SP Kris Medlen, Braves
Breakdown: From July 31 to Sept. 30 last year, spanning 12 starts and 83.2 innings, Medlen (10-1, 1.57 ERA) absurdly amassed a 9-0 record, 0.97 ERA, 0.80 WHIP and 84/10 K-BB ratio. And yet, he could still be had with the 82nd pick. On the flip side, he only has 315 major league innings and 30 starts.
Round 8
Draft #1 — SP Max Scherzer, Tigers
Draft #2 — SP Kris Medlen, Braves
Draft #3 — SS Alcides Escobar, Royals
Round 9
Draft #1 — 1B Anthony Rizzo, Cubs
Draft #2 — 1B Eric Hosmer, Royals
Draft #3 — 1B Eric Hosmer, Royals
Breakdown: It's a familiar refrain here: You can never have enough prominent corner infielders, even if Hosmer batted .232 last season (which may never happen again). Heading into his age-23 campaign, Hosmer has the reasonable upside for 165 hits, 17 homers, 82 RBI, 75 runs and 15-plus steals.
Round 10
Draft #1 — OF Josh Willingham, Twins
Draft #2 — SS Alcides Escobar, Royals
Draft #3 — SP Josh Johnson, Blue Jays
Round 11
Draft #1 — SP Jeff Samardzija, Cubs
Draft #2 — 3B Mike Moustakas, Royals
Draft #3 — 3B Mike Moustakas, Royals
Breakdown: Moustakas got off to a torrid start last April, rolling for three homers, 12 RBI, 10 runs and a .315 batting average. For the year, he notched double-digit tallies in runs and RBI for all six months.
Round 12
Draft #1 — SS Alcides Escobar, Royals
Draft #2 — SP C.J. Wilson, Angels
Draft #3 — SP Jeff Samardzija, Cubs
Round 13
Draft #1 — 3B Mike Moustakas, Royals
Draft #2 — SP Matt Harvey, Mets
Draft #3 — 1B/OF Chris Davis, Orioles
Breakdown: Let's establish a roundabout template of minimum expectations for Matt Harvey: 13 wins, 3.30 ERA, 1.17 WHIP and 170 strikeouts. Anything less would be considered a disappointment.
Round 14
Draft #1 — 1B/OF Chris Davis, Orioles
Draft #2 — OF Jayson Werth, Nationals
Draft #3 — SP Homer Bailey, Reds
Breakdown: Jayson Werth averaged 27 homers and 17 steals from 2008-11, so it doesn't seem right to penalize him for an injury-filled 2012 (missed 81 games). Not at age 34. But with that uncertainty ... comes a wonderful draft value in Round 14.
As for Bailey (21 starts of two or less runs allowed last year), he notched seven or more strikeouts nine times. His watershed moment: A complete-game shutout (with 10 strikeouts) in the Reds' win over the Pirates on Sept. 28.
Round 15
Draft #1 — SP Mike Minor, Braves
Draft #2 — SP Mike Minor, Braves
Draft #3 — C Salvador Perez, Royals
Breakdown: There's no point in reaching for a catcher at Round 15 or so, unless Miguel Montero, Wilin Rosario (28 homers as a rookie) or Sal Perez are available. Otherwise, might as well wait until the final rounds ... when, curiously, the Braves' Brian McCann can be scooped up for a song.
I say "curiously" for one reason: Last month on the Walt Disney World campus, you wouldn't have known that McCann (18-plus homers from 2006-12) was still on the mend from offseason shoulder surgery. He looked spry and ready to go.
Regarding Minor ... in five starts last September, the southpaw amassed a 4-0 record with microscopic tallies in ERA (0.87) and WHIP (0.71). In drafts outside the state of Georgia, he might fall to Round 17 or 18.
Round 16
Draft #1 — SP Marco Estrada, Brewers
Draft #2 — RP Brandon League, Dodgers
Draft #3 — RP Chris Perez, Indians
Breakdown: Astute observers will notice that Mike Moustakas, Marco Estrada, Norichika Aoki and Rockies middle infielder Josh Rutledge can be found on all three teams, in different draft slots. The four assets are primed for impressive years, exceeding their marginal draft values, as well.
Round 17
Draft #1 — RP Glen Perkins, Twins
Draft #2 — SP Marco Estrada, Brewers
Draft #3 — RP Glen Perkins, Twins
Breakdown:
With the notable exceptions of Craig Kimbrel and now Aroldis Chapman (back in the Reds' bullpen), it's unwise to draft a closer in the first 10 rounds of 12-teamers. As a prime example, potential gems like Perkins (16 saves, 2.56 ERA, 78/16 K-BB ratio last year) can be had later on, for pennies on the draft dollar.
Round 18
Draft #1 — OF Norichika Aoki, Brewers
Draft #2 — OF Norichika Aoki, Brewers
Draft #3 — SP Marco Estrada, Brewers
Round 19
Draft #1 — SS Josh Rutledge, Rockies
Draft #2 — SS Josh Rutledge, Rockies
Draft #3 — OF Norichika Aoki, Brewers
Breakdown: On draft day, Rutledge will only have shortstop eligibility ... but that will change sometime around April 20. In 211 career games in the minors (2010-12), Rutledge had a .320 batting average and .496 slugging percentage — strong numbers that were diluted by Rutledge's prolonged slump from three years ago (when he was 20).
Playing in the thin Colorado air, Rutledge could easily hit 15-18 homers this season.
Round 20
Draft #1 — OF Justin Ruggiano, Marlins
Draft #2 — RP Bruce Rondon, Tigers
Draft #3 — SS Josh Rutledge, Rockies
Round 21
Draft #1 — RP Bruce Rondon, Tigers
Draft #2 — 1B/DH Adam Dunn, White Sox
Draft #3 — OF Lorenzo Cain, Royals
Round 22
Draft #1 — SP Bud Norris, Astros
Draft #2 — 2B/3B Jedd Gyorko, Padres
Draft #3 — 2B/3B Jedd Gyorko, Padres
Round 23
Draft #1 — RP Jose Veras, Astros
Draft #2 — C Brian McCann, Braves
Draft #3 — OF Starling Marte, Pirates
Round 24
Draft #1 — SP Julio Teheran, Braves
Draft #2 — SP Chris Tillman, Orioles
Draft #3 — SS Jean Segura, Brewers
Round 25
Draft #1 — C Alex Avila, Tigers
Draft #2 — OF Billy Hamilton, Reds
Draft #3 — OF Billy Hamilton, Reds
Breakdown: For my money, Billy Hamilton is the most prolific, last-round flier pick of the 2013 rookie class. Last season (Double-A ball), he broke professional baseball's all-time season record for steals — 155. And even if Hamilton doesn't earn a big-league promotion until Memorial Day, he still has the blazing-fast chops to boost a fantasy team to a "Steals" title. Perhaps single-handedly.
One last thing: In 2012, Hamilton tallied 112 runs, a .311 batting average, .410 on-base percentage and highly respectable BB/K ratio of 86/113. Not bad for a 22-year-old kid.
Jay Clemons can be reached on Twitter, day or night, at @FOX_JayClemons.