Fantasy Football: Third-Year Wide Receivers to Watch
If you're looking for breakout candidates for your fantasy football draft, a good place to start is to target wide receivers entering their third season.
That may seem hyper-specific, but the third year is often when "the leap" takes place for talented wideouts.
Take Demaryius Thomas and Dez Bryant, for example. Both players flashed solid potential in their first two seasons, but nothing that was earth shattering. Thomas caught just 32 passes in 2011, and Bryant didn't reach 1,000 yards. In their third seasons though, both Thomas (94-1434-10) and Bryant (92-1382-12) exploded onto the scene and became first round fixtures.
We saw it last season, too. DeAndre Hopkins went from great to elite in his third year, catching five more touchdowns and 35 more receptions than he did in his second season. Keenan Allen was on pace for a similar breakout, as he racked up 67 catches in just eight games.
Which third-year receivers could be primed for a similar breakout this season? Let's start with who we aren't listing, mainly because they've already had their big year.
2014 was a loaded draft class for receivers, headed up by Odell Beckham Jr. and Mike Evans. While Evans should have a bounceback campaign in the touchdown scoring department, it's hard to imagine either player can be a whole lot better than what they've already shown in the past. You can probably lump Saints WR Brandin Cooks into that group, as he had a huge sophomore year (84-1138-9). Same for Dolphins WR Jarvis Landry (110-1157-4), Jags WR Allen Robinson (80-1400-14) and Panthers wideout Kelvin Benjamin, who missed all of last season.
With that in mind, let's take at some of the other talented receivers from that draft class.
Sammy Watkins, BUF
Watkins started off slow last year thanks in large part to injury, but he really flashed what he's capable of later in the season.
In the last six weeks of the 2015 season, Watkins averaged 113 yards and a touchdown a game, showing off impressive deep play ability.
Watkins has suffered from shaky QB play in the past, but Tyrod Taylor had some strong moments last year and should have a loosened leash. While Watkins may not be a PPR star with over 100 receptions because of the run-heavy sheme that Rex Ryan wants to use, double-digit touchdowns and over 1,200 yards seems very possible based on how he finished last season.
As of August 7th, Watkins is the 19th receiver off the draft board in PPR leagues, according to FantasyFootballCalculator.com. It's hard to say there are 19 receivers more talented than Watkins, and he faces little competition for targets on his own team. If Buffalo opens up their offense a little bit, Watkins could easily finish as a top-10 receiver. He's that taltented.
Jordan Matthews, PHI
It's hard to get too worked up about Matthews, especially given Philadelphia's shaky quarterback situation with Sam Bradford and Carson Wentz. Still, Matthews has the kind of size (6-foot-3, 212 lbs) to be a red zone weapon, and his eight touchdowns in each of his first two seasons provide a nice baseline moving forward.
The issue is that Matthews just isn't terribly explosive, as his 11.7 yards per catch would attest. If the Eagles go with Wentz at any point, receivers with rookie quarterbacks are rarely appealing from a fantasy standpoint, especially ones that can't take a 5-yard slant to the house.
More than anything, Matthews probably needs Sam Bradford to become consistent and hold on to the starting job. The two developed some decent chemistry over time, and the Eagles are likely going to have to throw the ball quite a bit this upcoming season.
As of August 7th, Matthews is currently the 28th receiver off the board in PPR drafts. For context sake, that's before guys like Allen Hurns, Emmanuel Sanders, Larry Fitzgerald and others. Matthews is currently a little overpriced given his lack of explosive talent.
Donte Moncrief, IND
A lot of Moncrief's stock has to do with Andrew Luck. Will he rebound and show that he's one of fantasy's best quarterbacks?
Either way, Moncrief should still see lots of targets in such a pass-heavy offense. The Colts were 9th in the league in total passing attempts last year, and the team won't be wasting time giving Andre Johnson snaps this time around.
With Coby Fleener in New Orleans, Moncrief should have a little less competition for targets than he had last season. He'll have to hold off Phillip Dorsett, but only in the pecking order, as the Colts will run a lot of 3-WR sets.
Moncrief finished last year with modest numbers (64-733-6), but he should be the beneficiary of sheer volume and a need for Andrew Luck to find a possession receiver.
As of August 7th, his PPR stock is trending up, as he's the 24th receiver off the board, according to FantasyFootballCalculator.com.
John Brown, ARI
Brown had a solid sophomore campaign (65-1003-7), but it feels like there's more on the horizon. He battled through some injuries last year but was still incredibly efficient in a high-octane offense that threw the ball a ton (2nd in total passing yards, first in YPA). It's possible that Larry Fitzgerald could take a step back at age 32, which would open the door a bit for Brown to get more targets.
Maybe a huge jump isn't on the way, but Brown is clearly talented and could handle more work if the opportunity presented itself. You could do worse in the middle of the 7th round.