Fantasy Football Team Preview: New England Patriots
Training Camp Update (8/27)
Training Camp Update (8/8)
Aaron Dobson is still out recovering from a broken foot and opens the door for Kenbrell Thompkins and Brandon LaFell to snatch the WR3 spot within the Pats' offense.
Rob Gronkowski continues to tease fantasy owners, but as has always been the case, if Gronk can give owners 14 games - missing the start of the season - he could be worthy of a third-round gamble with some tight-end insurance in later rounds.
For more notes on their first preseason game, check out the NESN feature.
Team Outlook
The last time New England finished a season with fewer than 10 wins Nickelback topped Billboard with their dulcet tones (followed by Ashanti – remember her?), gas was a $1.36 a gallon and Troy Glaus was your World Series MVP.
For many, how the Patriots managed to squeeze out 12 wins (8-0 at home) in 2013 must be an unscientific matter of smoke and mirrors. Once again their defense embraced a bend, but do not break mantra. They finished 26th in total defense (239 PYAPG and 134.1 RYAPG), but held their opponents to 21.1 points per game – 10th-best in the NFL.
BYE Week: 10
AFC East Previews: Patriots | Jets | Dolphins | Bills | League
Quarterback – Tom Brady
No Gronk for most the season, no *cough*AaronHernandez*cough* and a bevy of inexperienced receivers within the Patriots’ offense and Brady was bound to experience fantasy regression in 2013.
His 60.3 completion percentage, 6.92 yards per attempt, 25 touchdowns, and 87.3 QB rating are all in his career-lows conversation. Brady finished 15th in fantasy points scored (18.5 FPPG) behind Alex Smith, Matt Ryan and Nick Foles on the leaderboard.
Brady’s fantasy value is so directly tied to Rob Gronkowski’s health (major back and knee surgery the last two years) that it may be too early to suggest completely avoiding him in drafts, but it would not shock me to see Brady fall to round six or seven.
Running Back – Shane Vereen
Thanks to Stevan Ridley’s inconsistency and habitual fumbling and LeGarrette Blount’s relocation to Pittsburgh, expect Vereen to come off draft boards as a low-end RB1 in points-per reception leagues (second round). In standard leagues, and assuming he’s healthy 16 games, Vereen should see enough touches to earn RB2 draft status.
The main obstacle holding Vereen back is his wrist. The running back fractured it in Week 1 of the 2013 season and missed eight games. He recently made comments claiming the wrist isn’t 100 percent and may not be for some time despite constant rehab. All fantasy owners hear is "sore wrist" and a target for a defenses to attack and force fumbles on Sunday.
Running Back – Stevan Ridley
As mentioned above, Ridley’s four lost fumbles in 2013 – three in three consecutive games played - buried Ridley in Bill Belichick’s doghouse. He did receive an uptick in touches in late-December and playoff game against the Colts where he scored two touchdowns. The risk versus reward isn’t there to reach on Ridley in fantasy drafts, but will be a welcomed handcuff to Vereen to target in the mid-to-late rounds. If you want a reason to still believe, Ridley is only two years removed from 290 carries, 1,263 yards and 12 touchdowns with no Blount to vulture goal-line carries.
Running Back – Brandon Bolden
Although his 2013 workload was limited, Bolden could assume Blount’s role within the offense. At 5-foot-11, 220 pounds, Bolden carried the ball six times inside the five yard line last season (ranked 21st).
Wide Receiver – Danny Amendola
Amendola missed 15 games in 2011, five games in 2012 and four games in 2013 due to injury. So, he’s making progress towards a complete campaign.
Why should you consider taking a chance on a “healthy” Amendola? Two games last season created a structurally sound PPR-ceiling of what could be:
Just don’t get to cozy with the notion that Brady will only have eyes and targets for Amendola because …
Wide Receiver – Julian Edelman
Edelman caught 70 percent of the passes thrown his direction last season (105 of 151) – that led all NFL receivers with over 100 targets. However, thanks to a large corps of receivers, Edelman was only targeted 22 percent of the time by Brady. Aside from his uber-PPR fantasy value, most of Edelman’s stats lined up with T.Y Hilton’s final fantasy line. Edelman’s seven-receptions-per-game average should continue in 2014 and becomes a PPR darling in the middle rounds.
Wide Receiver – Aaron Dobson
Dobson is still recovering from surgery to repair a stress fracture in his foot (March) and isn’t expected back until June minicamp. All the Patriots’ insiders believe the 6-foot-3 receiver will play a pivotal role in the passing game as he trumped Kenbrell Thompkins (seven drops in 2013) on the depth charts as the 2013 season played out. Now, “pivotal role” can be defined a few different ways especially when you consider the 31 flavors Brady has to choose from and the assumption Gronkowski makes an appearances on Sundays this fall.
Wide Receiver – Brandon LaFell
LaFell averaged about 640 receiving yards and a handful of touchdowns per season during his last three with the Panthers. At 6-foot-2, 210 pounds, LaFell could compete with Aaron Dobson for playing time if he’s slow to return from his foot injury. At the time of spring OTA’s, the Patriots carried 11 receivers competing for six to seven roster spots. It’s crowded in New England. LaFell has post-10th round fantasy flier value. We’ll learn more about his role throughout the summer months.
Tight End – Rob Gronkowski
Too early to tell, but Gronk’s draft value will remain an internal battle of “He’s so dominate when active!” versus “He’s had major back and knee surgery the same calendar year!”
Gronk averaged more than five receptions and 84 yards with four touchdowns in seven games last season. We’ll continue to update his fantasy football status this summer. Scary to think, this bro is only 25 years old.
UPDATE (6/9) - Boston Globe reported Gronkowski (knee rehab) wasn't limited in June OTA practices. In fact, they reported he was "bursting, planting and cutting." This still doesn't mean he'll be ready by Week 1.
Rookie – James White
White played second fiddle to Montee Ball at Wisconsin until White’s senior season. He racked up over 1,400 yards with 13 touchdowns. Because you never know when coach Belichick is going to call your number, White has a few strengths to note. First, he’s really strong and only fumbled twice during his tenure with the Badgers. Second, he can catch the ball out of the backfield. Third, he is a savvy pass protector, which is a must in the Patriots’ offensive scheme.
Kicker – Stephen Gostkowski
He led all fantasy football kickers in scoring with 172 points (10.75 FPPG). His accuracy was nearly 93 percent with 19 field goals coming from beyond 40 yards.
Team Defense (DST)
The defense and special teams finished 12th in fantasy points scored last season (9.75 FPPG). The Pats were fifth with 48 sacks and 12th in interceptions with 17.
New England lost cornerback Aqib Talib to rival Denver, but signed Darrelle Revis soon after to fill the void. Oh, and it seems Vince Wilfork’s Achilles injury has healed!