Fantasy Football Draft Strategy - what if you have the first pick?

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Welcome to the 2015 Fantasy Football League Draft! YOU are now on the clock.

Now what?

At first, the thought of every NFL roster as your fantasy football oyster appears intriguing -- "I never win anything!" That’s until you start assessing (overanalyzing?) player risk and the realization seeps in that your second pick won’t return until 23 high-end players come off the board.

The draft slot dilemma reminds me of Gloria Clemente’s classic quote from “White Men Can’t Jump”:

“Sometimes when you win, you really lose, and sometimes when you lose, you really win, and sometimes when you win or lose, you actually tie, and sometimes when you tie, you actually win or lose. Winning or losing is all one organic mechanism, from which one extracts what one needs.”

It’s not the end of the world if you wind up with the first overall pick, but owners do need to embrace a strategy and stick with it. Don’t be swayed in your draft methodology because of position runs or BYE week concerns or, worst of all, emotion.

To help the No. 1 stunna’s of America, I’ve provided an uber-important stat table below. It contains the average fantasy points per game at each position for 2014 FOXSports.com fantasy football champs in standard and PPR-leagues. Due to varying league sizes, averages may be a little inflated, but these numbers are ballpark goals. If you can build a team in the neighborhood of these averages, you’ll be in great shape.

2014 Fantasy Football Champs AVG FPPG
PPR	Standard
QB: 21.22	QB: 21.38
RB1: 16.36	RB1: 13.16
RB2: 15.86	RB2: 12.43
WR1: 17.55	WR1: 11.41
WR2: 15.53	WR2: 10.52
TE : 11.32	TE: 7.82
FLEX: 14.14	FLEX: 10.20

Let’s start at quarterback where my colleague John Halpin and I agree you can WAIT. Sure, in a utopian world, we’d all own Aaron Rodgers or Andrew Luck, sit back and watch our scores soar. However, look at that stat table – quarterbacks on championship rosters averaged less than 22 points per game. For context, think how bad Eli Manning’s 2014 season was for a second – he averaged 20.5 fantasy points per game.

As for running backs and wide receivers, I’m going to reiterate my draft strategy research from earlier this summer. In short, only 19 running backs averaged double-digit fantasy production in PPR leagues last season. This list included Matt Asiata and Fred Jackson. If we’re to assume your league consists of 12-or-more teams – considered the standard – at least five teams went without – according to the first table – championship caliber RB2’s.

		RUSHING	RECEIVING
	Name	TD	Yds	Att	TD	Yds	Rec	PPR PTS	PPR PPG
1	Le'Veon Bell	8	1361	290	3	854	83	370.5	21.79
2	DeMarco Murray	13	1845	392	0	416	57	351.1	20.65
3	Matt Forte	6	1038	266	4	808	102	346.6	20.39
4	Marshawn Lynch	13	1306	280	4	367	37	302.3	17.78
5	Arian Foster	8	1246	260	5	327	38	275.5	16.21
6	Eddie Lacy	9	1139	246	4	427	42	272.6	16.04
7	Jamaal Charles	9	1033	206	5	291	40	250.4	14.73
8	Justin Forsett	8	1266	235	0	263	44	246.9	14.52
9	Lamar Miller	8	1099	216	1	275	38	223.4	13.14
10	C.J. Anderson	8	849	179	2	324	34	211.3	12.43
11	Jeremy Hill	9	1124	222	0	215	27	210.9	12.41
12	LeSean McCoy	5	1319	312	0	155	28	199.4	11.73
13	Joique Bell	7	860	223	1	322	34	198.2	11.66
14	Matt Asiata	9	570	164	1	312	44	194.2	11.42
15	Mark Ingram	9	964	226	0	145	29	191.9	11.29
16	Fred Jackson	2	525	141	1	501	66	188.6	11.09
17	Alfred Morris	8	1074	265	0	155	17	187.9	11.05
18	Giovani Bernard	5	680	168	2	349	43	187.9	11.05
19	Andre Ellington	3	660	201	2	395	46	177.5	10.44

Forty receivers averaged double-digit fantasy production in 2014 PPR leagues. Our championship average stat table above suggests WR1 plus WR2 PPR totals hovered around 33 fantasy points per week. Remember: the goal is to get in the ballpark with your 2015 receiving corps point totals. If you had Julio Jones + Jordan Matthews last season, you’d be flirting with 30 fantasy points from WR1+WR2 based on weekly averages. In other words, you can get creative with your receiving corps draft strategy. There is little room for error in running back draft strategy this season and you still have to start two (typically).

		RECEIVING	RUSHING
	Name	TD	Yds	Rec	TD	Yds	Att	PPR FP	PPR FPPG
1	Antonio Brown	13	1698	129	0	13	4	382.9	22.52
2	Demaryius Thomas	11	1619	111	0	0	0	340.9	20.05
3	Jordy Nelson	13	1519	98	0	0	0	327.9	19.29
4	Dez Bryant	16	1320	88	0	0	0	316	18.59
5	Emmanuel Sanders	9	1404	101	0	44	8	301.8	17.75
6	Julio Jones	6	1593	104	0	1	1	297.4	17.49
7	Odell Beckham Jr.	12	1305	91	0	35	7	295	17.35
8	Randall Cobb	12	1287	91	0	37	11	293.4	17.26
9	Jeremy Maclin	10	1318	85	0	0	0	276.8	16.28
10	Alshon Jeffery	10	1133	85	0	33	6	261.6	15.39
11	Golden Tate	4	1331	99	0	30	5	259.1	15.24
12	T.Y. Hilton	7	1345	82	0	20	2	258.5	15.21
13	Mike Evans	12	1051	68	0	0	0	245.1	14.42
14	DeAndre Hopkins	6	1210	76	0	0	0	231	13.59
15	Calvin Johnson	8	1077	71	0	0	0	226.7	13.34
16	Kelvin Benjamin	9	1008	73	0	0	0	225.8	13.28
17	Julian Edelman	4	972	92	0	94	10	222.6	13.09
18	Anquan Boldin	5	1062	83	0	4	1	219.6	12.92
19	Steve Smith Sr.	6	1065	79	0	0	0	219.5	12.91
20	Mike Wallace	10	862	67	0	16	4	212.8	12.52
21	Roddy White	7	921	80	0	0	0	212.1	12.48
22	Brandon LaFell	7	953	74	0	13	2	210.6	12.39
23	DeSean Jackson	6	1169	56	0	7	4	209.6	12.33
24	A.J. Green	6	1041	69	0	2	2	205.3	12.08
25	Jordan Matthews	8	872	67	0	0	0	202.2	11.89
26	Eric Decker	5	962	74	0	0	0	200.2	11.78
27	Sammy Watkins	6	982	65	0	8	2	198	11.65
28	Torrey Smith	11	767	49	0	0	0	191.7	11.28
29	Andre Johnson	3	936	85	0	0	0	190.6	11.21
30	Rueben Randle	3	938	71	0	0	0	182.8	10.75
31	Jarvis Landry	5	758	84	0	-4	2	181.4	10.67
32	Mohamed Sanu	5	790	56	0	51	7	181.3	10.66
33	Eddie Royal	7	778	62	0	14	3	181.2	10.66
34	Vincent Jackson	2	1002	70	0	0	0	180.2	10.60
35	Brandon Marshall	8	721	61	0	0	0	179.1	10.54
36	Marques Colston	5	902	59	0	0	0	177.2	10.42
37	Keenan Allen	4	783	77	0	0	0	175.3	10.31
38	Kenny Stills	3	931	63	0	-2	1	173.9	10.23
39	Malcom Floyd	6	856	52	0	0	0	173.6	10.21
40	James Jones	6	666	73	0	0	0	173.6	10.21

So, with the 1st / 24th / 25th picks, my advice is to drill the RB1 slot. Le’Veon Bell – even with the two-game suspension – is 14 weeks of production that’s hard to duplicate – especially in PPR leagues. Over at Fantasy Football Calculator, the ADP at pick 24 is Aaron Rodgers, which doesn’t interest us. Justin Forsett is at 22, which in PPR formats, I’m buying as a RB2 with offensive coordinator Marc Trestman calling plays. Three receivers floating in that range are Randall Cobb, Alshon Jeffery, T.Y. Hilton, and Mike Evans. If you can steal Cobb, you’re living right. Hilton and Evans are decent WR1’s, while the Jay Cutler + new offensive coordinator Adam Gase + Jeffery equation comes with some risk. If Jimmy Graham as your starting tight end helps you sleep at night, I wouldn’t be opposed to the selection at 24/25.

From there, the focus should be on RB/WR in rounds four and five with a concentration on quarterback in rounds six or seven. You’re going to get a quality quarterback – do not worry.

And remember:

“Winning or losing is all one organic mechanism, from which one extracts what one needs.” - Clemente

Also Read: What-if you are drafting last in a 12-team league?