Fantasy Baseball Top 100 Players for 2016

As a baseball writer, I often find this time of year to be a challenge. Not a challenge in the sense that I struggle to find things to write about that I find interesting, but more coming up with something that I think you will want to take the time to read. After all, the college football season has kicked off, the NFL is right around the corner, and in your baseball leagues, your trade deadlines may have already passed. Still reading? Let’s take a different approach this week and look toward 2016. Going forward, that will be our approach here, as while some of you may be scratching and clawing for those last few saves or stolen bases, chances are that in many of your leagues, the outcomes have already been determined. One thing on my mind this week was how to value guys like Kris Bryant and Carlos Correa for next year. Will they continue to put up these sort of numbers over the course of a full season? Will pitchers “figure them out” watching video over the winter? Sophomore jinx? Let’s take a look at my very early top 100 fantasy players for 2016 and see where these guys fit in.

TOP 100

1. Mike Trout, OF, Angels – Perhaps the gap has narrowed a little, but he’s like Emmitt Smith in his prime – sort of a no-brainer if you wind up with the No. 1 pick.

2. Bryce Harper, OF, Nationals – 99 BB in 218 games from 2013-2014. 109 BB in 130 games this year to go with a .333/.465/.640. Given he’s amazingly still just 22, if there’s anyone who can even sniff a Barry Bonds-type year (.362/.609/.812 in 2004 for example), this is the guy.

3. Paul Goldschmidt, 1B, Diamondbacks – Has a Hall of Fame toolset if he can just stay healthy, which he’s done this year. BB-rate spiked from 13.5 percent to 16.8 percent.

4. Clayton Kershaw, SP, Dodgers – Only his teammate Zack Greinke stands between him and his fourth Cy Young at the age of 27. Needs 41 more strikeouts to become the first pitcher since 2002 (Randy Johnson and teammate Curt Schilling) to reach 300.

5. Giancarlo Stanton, OF, Marlins – If I knew he could play in 150 games next year, I’d put him as the overwhelming favorite to hit 50-plus home runs and lead the league.

6. Miguel Cabrera, 1B, Tigers – Very possible he never hits 44 home runs again, but at .351/.451/.565, he’s still having a pretty good year.

7. Nolan Arenado, 3B, Rockies – Would like to see him be more selective (5 percent BB-rate), but leads NL with 37 home runs and is just 24 and playing in a hitter’s park.

8. Andrew McCutchen, OF, Pirates – May be in line for another top-five MVP finish, but SB trend the last three years is troubling for his fantasy value: 27, 18, 7.

9. Josh Donaldson, 3B, Blue Jays – Power has spiked this year and his BA is up 50 points over last year to .305. May be the AL MVP.

10. Anthony Rizzo, 1B, Cubs – Mr. Consistency with .913 and .928 OPS totals the last two years. RBI opportunities have gone up with the improvement around him in the lineup.

11. Jose Abreu, 1B, White Sox – I thought he’s take a step back and he has, but .300-30-100 is still attainable with a solid finish.

12. Jose Altuve, 2B, Astros – A few doubles turning into HRs this year and he should be a lock for .300+ and 40 SB next year in an improving Astros lineup. Seems like he should have scored more than 68 runs this year though.

13. Max Scherzer, SP, Nationals – About to notch his fourth consecutive year with 230+ strikeouts. Now if they can just improve the team around him (11-11 record this year).

14. Chris Sale, SP, White Sox – He’s going to win a Cy Young one of these years, though it will probably be Dallas Keuchel this year.

15. Zack Greinke, SP, Dodgers – Probably winds up with Cy Young No. 2 this year, though Kershaw may push him.

16. Troy Tulowitzki, SS, Blue Jays – Has been fairly healthy, so it’s a surprise to see him hitting .279/.338/.441, but I expect more next year.

17. Dee Gordon, 2B, Marlins - .330 with 50 steals and isn’t fading in the second half this year. Now about that 3.6 percent BB-rate...

18. Jose Fernandez, SP, Marlins – A bit worried about the biceps strain and a possible 2016 innings cap, but when he’s healthy, he’s a top-five overall pitcher.

19. Manny Machado, 3B, Orioles – Could be looking at 30 HR and 20 SB and at 23, the surface is just being scratched.

20. Carlos Correa, SS, Astros – What he’s doing at age 20 is just incredible. Has the natural ability to hit 40 home runs and top this list headed into 2017.

21. Kris Bryant, 3B, Cubs – 30.5 percent K-rate is keeping BA down, but he could go 25-100 in his rookie season and he has 12 SBs. Tip of the iceberg.

22. Edwin Encarnacion, 1B, Blue Jays – Is there anyone you trust more to go 30-100 than this guy?

23. Felix Hernandez, SP, Mariners – 20:2 K:BB in last three starts after a stinker, so 3.65 ERA should continue to fall. He’s still elite.

24. Jose Bautista, OF, Blue Jays - .241 BABIP has hurt BA, but probably looking at a 37 HR, 110 RBI season in an elite lineup.

25. George Springer, OF, Astros – 27.2 percent BB-rate should serve to hold down BA, but in 157 career big league games, he has 33 HR and 19 SB.

26. Jason Kipnis, 2B, Indians – He’s going to top 40 doubles, but Kipnis has just seven HR. I’d expect more in the 15 range next year.

27. Madison Bumgarner, SP, Giants – No playoff hangover here. He’s been beastly, especially lately.

28. Nelson Cruz, OF, Mariners – One more HR to make it back-to-back 40-homer seasons. Even at age 35, why can’t he do it again. Like a fine wine...

29. Corey Kluber, SP, Indians – Following up Cy Young season with a solid year, though 3.41 ERA is higher than we had hoped. 9.8 K/9 and 1.7 BB/9 suggest skills remain elite.

30. Robinson Cano, 2B, Mariners - .330/.388/.529 in the second half. Sure, this contract won’t end well for the Mariners, but he’s hitting like the Cano of old now.

31. David Price, SP, Blue Jays – Value will be high regardless of where he signs in free agency this winter. Bump him or down a few notches depending on where he lands.

32. Anthony Rendon, 3B, Nationals – He was a borderline first round fantasy pick this spring, so Rendon has been a disappointment, but the underlying skills suggest he’s going to have a few elite seasons in his future. All assumes he’s able to stay healthy of course.

33. Buster Posey, C, Giants – Freak injuries aside, he’s about as safe as they come at the catching spot.

34. Gerrit Cole, SP, Pirates – Elite status is just around the corner, but will need to continue refining command of his breaking stuff to go with his 94-98 mph fastball.

35. Dallas Keuchel, SP, Astros – Lefty with a fastball that averages less than 90 mph but gets great results? Hey, sounds like Tom Glavine. Keuchel is probably the AL Cy Young favorite and he’s just 27.

36. Mookie Betts, OF, Red Sox – Let’s say he winds up with 15 HR and 20 SB. On fire lately and given he’s a career .316 hitter in the minors and is just 22, the best is yet to come.

37. Joey Votto, 1B, Reds – Gets healthy and improved OPS from last year’s .799 to 1.019 this season.

38. Carlos Gomez, OF, Brewers – Just 10 HR and 14 SB in a highly disappointing season. Still, he’s just 29 and should have some good years left. You may be able to get him at a discount next year given .252 BA.

39. Adam Jones, OF, Orioles – 16.7 percent K-rate is best mark of his career and still-low 4.5 percent BB-rate is up over the last couple years. Power is still there (25 HR), though he’s not running nearly as much as he used to.

40. Prince Fielder, 1B, Rangers – Comeback Player of the Year candidate batting .310 with 18 HR. Not the 50 HR guy he used to be, but 25-30 seems attainable in 2016.

41. Justin Upton, OF, Padres – Safe to say the Padres won’t re-sign him, so most any park he goes to should be an improvement.

42. Albert Pujols, 1B, Angels – Power certainly there with 35 HR, but seeing this guy hitting .248 is crazy. Plate discipline has declined with age, as is reflected in the percentage of pitches he swings at outside the strike zone – 31.7 percent this year versus more in the 15-19 percent range in his prime.

43. Matt Harvey, SP, Mets – We shouldn’t have to worry about an innings cap next year.

44. J.D. Martinez, OF, Tigers – Apparently last year’s power increase was real, as he’s bashed 36 homers this year versus 23 a year ago. We can live with the 27.3 percent K-rate with that sort of muscle.

45. A.J. Pollock, OF, Diamondbacks – 15 HR in 212 games from 2013-2014 and already 16 this year in 134 games. Mix in a .314 BA and 33 SB and he deserves a lofty ranking.

46. Yoenis Cespedes, OF, Mets - .297-31-95 and is going to make a ton of money in free agency this winter. BB/K ratio just 0.23, but he has a 40-homer season coming soon.

47. Sonny Gray, SP, Athletics – Now that he’s established as an ace, it’s about time for the A’s to trade him.

48. Chris Davis, 1B, Orioles – 41 HR in what has been the second-best year of his career. Good timing given pending free agency. No reason to think he can’t hit 40 next year.

49. Johnny Cueto, SP, Royals – Doubtful the Royals re-sign him unless they win the World Series and fill their coffers.

50. Chris Archer, SP, Rays – Looks to be a lock for 250 strikeouts this year and looks to be a good bet to win a Cy Young award in the near future. Garza trade looking good for the Rays.

51. Brian Dozier, 2B, Twins – In third full season, his BAs have been: .244, .242, and this year, .240. At least he’s consistent. We’ll take it though given he’s hit 27 homers and swiped 11 bags.

52. Freddie Freeman, 1B, Braves – As long as he can avoid injuries, Freeman should continue to bat in the .280-.300 range with 20-25 homers and 90-100 RBI for the foreseeable future. Super consistent.

53. Ryan Braun, OF, Brewers – He’s likely already had his best year, but is showing more power and plate discipline this year than last.

54. Yasiel Puig, OF, Dodgers – Simply put, the Dodgers need to figure out why their players keep getting hamstring injuries. Puig was a 5.0 WAR player last year and given good health and a spot in the everyday lineup, he’s a good bet to return to his previous lofty draft position. He might even be a draft bargain next year.

55. Adrian Gonzalez, 1B, Dodgers – Hard to be more reliable than this guy.

56. Jacob deGrom, SP, Mets – Harvey/deGrom/Syndergaard >>> Isringhausen/Pulsipher/Wilson

57. Jake Arrieta, SP, Cubs – Looking at a top-three Cy Young finish and may be safe to say the Cubs won the Arrieta/Pedro Strop for Scott Feldman deal.

58. Cole Hamels, SP, Rangers – 4.07 ERA in seven AL starts. Hamels/Darvish should be a nice 1-2 punch.

59. Carlos Gonzalez, OF, Rockies – 36 HR, but beware of his .790 OPS on the road and .559 OPS versus LHP. Offseason trade candidate, but should be good for 30 HR wherever he goes.

60. Jacoby Ellsbury, OF, Yankees – If healthy, a 20/30 season in Yankee Stadium is doable.

61. Michael Brantley, OF, Indians – Struggling to reach last year’s numbers, but is batting .368/.434/.609 since the All-Star break.

62. Lorenzo Cain, OF, Royals – 14 HR, 27 SB, and a .314/.369/.488 slash line and one of the more underrated players in the game.

63. Billy Hamilton, OF, Reds – Not sure he’ll ever hit for power or post an OBP much greater than .300, but oh those steals.

64. Charlie Blackmon, OF, Rockies – A “quiet” 15 HR and 36 SB. Good to see trend in BB/K the last three years: 0.14, 0.32, 0.40.

65. Adam Wainwright, SP, Cardinals – A bit of a wild card given next year is his age-35 season, but had a 1.44 ERA in four starts this year and the injury was to his Achilles, not his arm.

66. Corey Dickerson, OF, Rockies – Good this year when healthy, but drop in BB-rate from 7.7 percent to 4.5 percent is less than encouraging.

67. Todd Frazier, 3B, Reds – Just .211 with five HR since the break. HR derby curse strikes again? Eh, not really, but he looks to be a lock for 30 HR the next few years.

68. Jose Reyes, SS, Rockies – Odds seem slim that he remains in Colorado next year. Be careful in NL-only leagues.

69. Stephen Vogt, C, Athletics - .245 with 1 HR versus LHP, but he’s still moved into elite catcher territory.

70. Stephen Strasburg, SP, Nationals – Failed to build off last year’s 242 strikeouts, but as we saw Wednesday with his 13 strikeouts, the upside remains immense.

71. Starling Marte, OF, Pirates – Career-best 16 HR to go with 26 SB but 4.1 percent BB-rate keeps him from leadoff slot. Still just 26.

72. Miguel Sano, SS/3B, MIN – 15 HR in just 195 at-bats projects out to 40-plus over a full season. .424 BABIP and 37.8 percent K-rate are big red flags though.

73. Carlos Carrasco, SP, Indians – Had him as a dark horse Cy Young contender, but HR-rate has spiked. Still awesome ratios however: 10.0 K/9, 2.0 BB/9.

74. Michael Wacha, SP, Cardinals – Big kid, so not too concerned about the spike in innings.

75. Aroldis Chapman, RP, Reds – Elite closers probably start coming off the board a bit earlier, but I never draft them before round 10.

76. Jonathan Lucroy, C, Brewers – Disappointing year after finishing fourth in the 2014 MVP race, but given full health next year, he should return to being a top-tier catcher.

77. Kenley Jansen, RP, Dodgers – See Chapman comment.

78. Jordan Zimmermann, SP, Nationals – He’s going to get PAID as a free agent, likely by a new team.

79. Carlos Martinez, SP, Cardinals – 5.09 ERA over the last month, so may be tiring, but still it’s his first full season as a big league starter.

80. Xander Bogaerts, SS, Red Sox – Batting .317 in his second full year, so nice step forward. Just five HR, but power will come.

81. Craig Kimbrel, RP, Padres – Not quite as dominant as in years past, but still an elite closer. Probably pitches elsewhere next year.

82. Ian Desmond, SS, Nationals - .289 with 10 HR in 180 second-half at-bats. Very Desmond-like. Likely gone as a free agent this winter to save money and make room for Trea Turner.

83. Christian Yelich, OF, Marlins – Just .220 through first two months but .328 since the All-Star break. Could easily top 20/20 next year with his talent.

84. Trevor Rosenthal, RP, Cardinals – 88 saves over the last two years and has improved BB/9 from 5.4 last year to 3.4 in 2016.

85. Jason Heyward, OF, Cardinals – 27 HR in 2012 looking like an anomaly, but is still just 26, so may still have career year forthcoming. Free agent to be.

86. Matt Kemp, OF, SD – He’s been beastly in the second half, but can he stay healthy and do that over the course of a full season? Dodgers obviously didn’t think so.

87. Kyle Schwarber, C, Cubs – Looks like a perennial threat to hit .290-30-100. If he can stick at catcher, that’s a possible third round pick.

88. Hunter Pence, OF, Giants – With the offseason to get healthy, he should be able to return to a 20/10 type level.

89. Ian Kinsler, 2B, DET – Aging but still very productive.

90. David Robertson, RP, White Sox – Career-best 6.6 K/BB and should be an elite closer for a few more years.

91. Lance Lynn, SP, Cardinals – Durable, consistent, and pretty good.

92. Yasmani Grandal, C, Dodgers – Shoulder is a concern, but he’s an elite offensive catcher when healthy.

93. Tyson Ross, SP, Padres – 4.0 BB/9 is only thing preventing him from being an elite starter.

94. Hanley Ramirez, OF/1B, Red Sox – Miserable year, but still just 31 and two years removed from a 1.040 OPS.

95. Brett Gardner, OF, Yankees – 20/20 season remains a possibility.

96. Jorge Soler, OF, Cubs – Injuries have limited him to 90 games, but is supremely talented and could be a bargain next year.

97. Dustin Pedroia, 2B, Red Sox – Should enter next year completely healthy, and lack of steals this year (one) can be chalked up to hamstring.

98. Jay Bruce, OF, Reds – Improved versus LHP and K-rate has gone from last year’s 27.3 percent to 21.7 percent. I think he can hit .260 next year, but for a guy who I thought would hit 45-50 HR one day, his 38 HR over the last 270 games is a letdown.

99. Garrett Richards, SP, Angels – Has taken a step back from last year’s breakout season, but should be fine for 2016.

100. Byron Buxton, OF, Twins – Or Corey Seager if you prefer, but at this point, taking a risk on a young player with significant upside makes a lot of sense.