Drafts: Who's overvalued, undervalued?
It’s never too early to start examining the Average Draft Position (ADP) to evaluate who’s being picked too late or too soon.
Using ADPs thru February 24 from Mock Draft Central, 12 players have draft positions that vary widely from the rankings of yours truly.
Please note that when evaluating starting pitchers, Mock Draft Central’s overall ADPs will be very different from my rankings. Most people draft pitchers – both starters and closers – before I would. For that reason, I’ll use positional and overall ADPs for all players in an effort to provide better context.
Overvalued
Ichiro Suzuki, OF, Seattle
ADP: 8th at position, 30th overall
Halpin’s rank: 30th at position, 81st overall
I love Ichiro, you love Ichiro … who doesn’t love Ichiro? The thing is, he’s age 37, and he’s gotta slow down sometime. He contributes in only two categories, and guys in their late 30s don’t steal 40-plus bases forever. Ichiro needs to bat .350 with 40 swipes to approach being worth the 30th pick. His batting averages over the last six seasons have been .303-.322-.351-.310-.352-.315, so the odds of that probably aren’t good.
Brandon Phillips, 2B, Cincinnati
ADP: 4th at position, 34th overall
Halpin’s rank: 7th at position, 56th overall
Phillips is a nice player, and stats like his are very helpful from a middle infielder. However, his slugging percentage slipped to .430 last season; his home-run total declined for a second consecutive year; and he got caught stealing 12 times in 28 attempts. That makes you think the Reds will give him the green light a little less often. Also, his .267 career batting average isn’t anything to brag about. I can’t see picking Phillips ahead of Dan Uggla or Rickie Weeks.
Dan Haren, SP, Los Angeles Angels
ADP: 9th at position, 50th overall
Halpin’s rank: 19th at position, 96th overall
Haren is an elite strikeout guy, and that’s great. His control is terrific, too. I really, really like him. But his career ERA is 3.66, and another full season in the American League won’t help his numbers. Even if he posts a 3.50 ERA and a 1.20 WHIP, which would be a good season for him, he’s not a top-10 fantasy starter.
Jacoby Ellsbury, OF, Boston
ADP: 18th at position, 67th overall
Halpin’s rank: 39th at position, 129th overall
Not this guy again! When healthy, Ellsbury is a very good basestealer. If he steals 70, he might earn a sixth-round pick in a standard league. If he steals 50, he’ll be no better than Juan Pierre or Brett Gardner, and not too far ahead of guys like Michael Bourn and Rajai Davis. Speed can be found in the late rounds or in the free-agent pool. So you don’t need to draft it too early unless it comes with plenty of other skills. Also, you know Ellsbury might bat ninth, right?
Carlos Marmol, RP, Chicago Cubs
ADP: 4th at position, 80th overall
Halpin’s rank: 13th at position, 183rd overall
If there’s one player I can guarantee won’t be on any of my fantasy teams this season, it’s Marmol. Colleague Mike Harmon accused me of “Marmol bashing” recently, and that’s a pretty accurate statement. Marmol saved 38 games last season, thanks to an out-of-this-world 138 strikeouts in 77 2/3 innings. Unfortunately, he also walked 52 batters, which would warrant a demotion to the minors for almost any other pitcher.
Marmol has excellent stuff, and just signed a three-year contract extension with the Cubs. You know what? I don’t care. His wildness is going to drive his manager crazy at some point. That might be in May, it might be in September, or it might be in 2012. But it’s almost certain to happen, and that makes him a bad bet.
Ian Stewart, 3B, Colorado
ADP: 10th at position, 115th overall
Halpin’s rank: 16th at position, 165th overall
Never thought you’d see the day when I bet against a Coors Field hitter, huh? Stewart has good power, and at age 26 it’s far too early to give up on him, especially with the talent pool at third base being so shallow. Still, his struggles against lefties (.683 OPS last season with 31 whiffs in 91 at-bats) make a platoon situation with either Jose Lopez or Ty Wigginton (or both) a tempting option for the Rox. Stewart could break out, but drafting him as a standard-league starter is risky.
Undervalued
Matt Holliday, OF, St. Louis
ADP: 5th at position, 23rd overall
Halpin’s rank: 4th at position, 12th overall
Holliday’s numbers aren’t spectacular, and he doesn’t have the upside of players like Josh Hamilton, Ryan Howard or Mark Teixeira. Holliday rates ahead of that trio for me because I know what I’m going to get – a .300-plus batting average, around 100 runs and RBI, 10-15 stolen bases, close to 30 home runs, and another year of batting behind Albert Pujols, whose career OBP is .426. Holliday isn’t just solid; he’s excellent when you add it all up. At the 12-13 wheel spot in a draft, I’d be very happy to take him.
Justin Upton, OF, Arizona
ADP: 11th at position, 40th overall
Halpin’s rank: 7th at position, 23rd overall
I’m all in – again. Upton was a disappointment last season, and a shoulder injury caused him to miss most of September. Still, if he plays 150 games, he’s a 20-20 lock, and his upside is immense. I don’t want to heap unreasonable expectations on a 23-year-old slugger who strikes out a lot. But do you know a lot of guys his age with an .824 OPS in just more than 1,500 at bats? Through the end of June, Upton had 14 homers and 11 stolen bases, which is a strong pace. At the end of the second round, bet on Upton’s talent.
Josh Johnson, SP, Florida
ADP: 18th at position, 71st overall
Halpin’s rank: 5th at position, 49th overall
Looks like everyone is worried about Johnson’s late-season shoulder injury. Though the issue wasn’t thought to be serious, I suppose that’s understandable. It’s also too bad, because Johnson is a beast. He offers huge strikeout numbers, a strong WHIP due to his good control, and a probably sub-3.00 ERA. Is he risky? Sure, but I’ll take it in the fifth round.
Francisco Liriano, SP, Minnesota
ADP: 19th at position, 76th overall
Halpin’s rank: 8th at position, 57th overall
Liriano’s 3.62 ERA last season was likely inflated by bad luck that included a .331 BABIP. His ratio of 201 strikeouts to just 58 walks was elite, and he takes the mound in a pitcher-friendly park in about half his starts. There are understandable injury worries about Liriano based on his history, but I’m not sure people realize just how good he is.
Drew Stubbs, OF, Cincinnati
ADP: 41st at position, 156th overall
Halpin’s rank: 26th at position, 70th overall
Hey, it’s my favorite 2011 fantasy player! Stubbs hit 22 homers with 30 stolen bases in his first full big-league season. He displayed a walk rate that suggests he’ll get on base often, and scored 91 runs. Does Stubbs strike out too much, making his batting average a potential worry area? Sure, but nobody is asking you to pick him in the second round. In the sixth or seventh round of a standard-league draft, he could still provide value. Lots of it.
Kurt Suzuki, C, Oakland
ADP: 11th at position, 164th overall
Halpin’s rank: 7th at position, 99th overall
If I have second thoughts about the ranking of any of the 13 players in this article, it’s Suzuki. He’ll never give you elite power, and his .242 batting average last season was a killer. However, he plays all the time, which will help his runs and RBI. His BAs before 2010 – minors and majors – suggest a .270-.280 hitter, and he should hit about 15 homers. Looking at the guys being drafted ahead of him – Mike Napoli, Matt Wieters, Miguel Montero – I’d rather have Suzuki. For what it’s worth, that’s based partially on a gut feeling.
Aaron Hill, 2B, Toronto
ADP: 14th at position, 176th overall
Halpin’s rank: 10th at position, 98th overall
Hill has hit 62 homers over the last two seasons. He batted just .205 last year, but that dropped his career mark to .270. It was dragged down by an unluckiest-in-MLB .196 BABIP. His batting average is going to be fine, and he’s going to hit close to 30 homers again. If Uggla is being drafted 57th overall, there’s no way Hill should go 119 spots lower.