Daily Fantasy Baseball Advice for September 30
This is the final baseball DFS post of the season. I hope you enjoyed it and, most of all, won some money because of it. If there is any changes or added content that you would like to see for 2017, please share those ideas with us in the comments section below.
For those who are unfamiliar with my thought process, I aim to add as many home run hitters as possible to my daily fantasy baseball lineups. One way of doing that is to look at a player's isolated power numbers (ISO). The ISO statistic removes singles and provides a larger weight for each extra-base hit.
I also use the weighted on-base average (wOBA) metric. This stat takes every positive outcome into consideration.
Last year, the league average was a .150 ISO and a .313 wOBA. So, when you see me list a player's ISO or wOBA, you know why I do it.
5 Things to Watch:
1. Here are the three highest over/unders for Friday, provided by OddsShark…
2. On the opposite end of the spectrum, the LAD/SF game is given an over/under of six total runs with the Giants as a slight favorite (-125). In this scenario, I lean toward the cheaper starting pitcher. Rich Hill is $1,300 less than Madison Bumgarner on FanDuel, but only $400 less than the Mad Bum on DraftKings. So, I would suggest you play Hill on FS and probably spend the extra money to get Bumgarner on DK.
3. We have rain in the forecast for a few games tonight: MIN/CWS, TOR/BOS, and BAL/NYY.
4. Yu Darvish and the Rangers are pegged with the strongest odds on Friday (-210). Darvish has recorded at least eight strikeouts in four of the past five outings. He’s also allowed one earned run or fewer in two of his past three starts.
5. One last time for the BvPers out there: Gregory Polanco is 10-for-19 (.526) with five extra-base hits against Carlos Martinez…Jose Bautista is 15-for-36 (.417) with three home runs against Rick Porcello…Finally, Brian Dozier is 6-for-12 (.500) with three home runs against Carlos Rodon.
Must-Start of the day: George Springer, HOU
I am notoriously bad at predicting when Springer will have a good DFS game. However, here I go again, looking to end on a high note. Springer has a .337 wOBA against righties this year and currently leads the league with 14 hits in the past week (.500 AVG).
Deal of the day: Robert Gsellman, NYM
For your second SP on DK, Gsellman is a great option. He’s struck out at least six batters in back-to-back outings and has allowed a total of two earned runs in his past three starts. Plus, he’s already faced the Phillies twice this season: 1-1 with a 2.77 ERA and 13 Ks in 13 innings.
Avoid of the day: Michael Saunders, TOR
He is 1-for-16 (.063) with seven career strikeouts against Rick Porcello.
Stack of the day: Houston Astros
I already locked in Springer as the must-start, and now I’m doubling down by making Houston the stack of the evening. Angels starter Daniel Wright has allowed at least three earned runs in five straight performances. In his past four starts, Wright has given up five home runs. This season at Angel Stadium, he’s allowed eight earned runs in 11.1 innings. Load up on Astros tonight. I’m using Evan Gattis, Carlos Correa and Springer.
Starting pitchers:
Madison Bumgarner, SF - (See “5 Things”)
Rich Hill, LAD - (See “5 Things”)
Yu Darvish, TEX - (See “5 Things”)
Taijuan Walker, SEA - He’s notched at least six strikeouts in three consecutive starts. Also, in his two combined outings against the A’s, Walker is 0-1 but carries a 2.03 ERA and has struck out 10 batters in 13.1 innings of work.
Robert Gsellman, NYM - “Deal of the day.”
Catchers:
Evan Gattis, HOU - He has a .260 ISO against righties in 2016.
Nick Hundley, COL - He has a .227 ISO and a .383 wOBA against southpaws this season.
Manny Pina, MIL - He has a .233 ISO against righties this year.
First basemen:
Paul Goldschmidt, ARI - He has a .362 wOBA against righties this year.
Anthony Rizzo, CHC - He has a .280 ISO against righties this season.
Wil Myers, SD - He has a .205 ISO against righties in 2016.
Second basemen:
DJ LeMahieu, COL - He has a .401 wOBA against lefties this season.
Ryan Schimpf, SD - He has a .318 ISO against righties this year.
Robinson Cano, SEA - He’s batting .400 with three home runs in the past week.
Third basemen:
Nolan Arenado, COL - He has a .215 ISO against lefties this year.
Jake Lamb, ARI - He has a .285 ISO against righties this season.
Kris Bryant, CHC - He has a .244 ISO against righties in 2016.
Shortstops:
Jonathan Villar, MIL - He has a .341 wOBA this year against righties and has belted three home runs in the past week.
Carlos Correa, HOU - He has a .362 wOBA against righties this season.
Outfielders:
George Springer, HOU - “Must-start of the day.”
Carlos Gonzalez, COL - He has a .225 ISO against lefties this year.
Ryan Braun, MIL - He has a .229 ISO against righties in 2016.
Carlos Gomez, TEX - He’s batting .444 with two home runs in the past week.
Ryan Raburn, COL - He leads the Rockies with a .250 ISO against lefties this season.