Daily Fantasy Baseball Advice for July 4
For those who are unfamiliar with my thought process, I aim to add as many home run hitters as possible to my daily fantasy baseball lineups. One way of doing that is to look at a player's isolated power numbers (ISO). The ISO statistic removes singles and provides a larger weight for each extra-base hit.
I also use the weighted on-base average (wOBA) metric. This stat takes every positive outcome into consideration.
Last year, the league average was a .150 ISO and a .313 wOBA. So, when you see me list a player's ISO or wOBA, you know why I emphasize hitters with numbers much higher than the 2015 averages.
5 Things to Watch:
1. Here are the four highest over/unders for Monday, provided by OddsShark...
2. Unfortunately, the best pitcher on the slate plays at 11:05 am (EST). On DraftKings, the MIL/WAS game doesn't exist. On FanDuel, while you can use Max Scherzer in an "all-day" contest, you don't have the luxury of swapping players if they don't start later in the day. So, I'm removing Brewers and Nationals from the player pool.
3. The Cubs, and Kyle Hendricks, are the strongest favorites on the board (-260). Hendricks' last start was against the Reds on June 29: 6.2 IP, 2 ER, and 5 Ks. He's also 4-1 with a 1.93 ERA at Wrigley Field this year.
4. The interleague action today is between the Orioles and Dodgers. Baltimore loses the DH as they travel to Los Angeles.
5. For the BvP readers: Jose Altuve is 10-for-15 (.667) with four extra-base hits against Wade Miley...Starling Marte is 10-for-19 (.526) with two extra-base hits against Carlos Martinez...Also, Marte's teammate, Gregory Polanco, is 9-for-16 (.563) with four extra-base hits against Martinez.
Yesterday's recap:
D.J. Foster pegged the Mariners as his favorite stack with a special highlight of Robinson Cano and they both came through. Cano went 2-for-4 with a double and Seattle scored nine runs on Sunday night. Chris Archer was also one of Foster's pitching suggestions. While the Rays didn't win, Archer impressed: 5.2 IP, 0 ER, and 10 Ks.
Must-Start of the day: Carlos Beltran, NYY
Though he has missed some time with a sore hamstring, Beltran is quoted as saying that he's "positive" that he'll play on Monday. Good, because James Shields is on the hill today. Also, Beltran has a team-high .253 ISO and .368 wOBA against righties this season.
Deal of the day: Alex Dickerson, SD
For my consistent readers, you know how much I like to roll the dice (he's doing the "dice thing" too much). Here is my rational for this pick: 1) Archie Bradley is allowing left-handed hitters to produce a .304 AVG this season. He struggles at home (5.47 ERA this season) and at night (6.43 ERA in 2016). 2) Dickerson is a left-handed hitter who homered last night and can also steal a bag. In his 21 at-bats this year, Dickerson has a .286 ISO and .334 wOBA against righties. However, with my luck, Dickerson won't start and this entire section will be for naught.
Avoid of the day: Giancarlo Stanton, MIA
He is 1-for-13 (.077) with seven strikeouts against Matt Harvey.
Stack of the day: Toronto Blue Jays
It's been a roller coaster of a season for Edinson Volquez this year. Even when he starts to find success, Volquez has a difficult time stringing back-to-back solid outings together. In his last performance, Volquez shut down the Cardinals. So, a stinker is on the horizon. Right-handed hitters are slugging .431 against him in 2016 and Vegas lists Toronto as the strong favorite (-190) in this high-scoring affair (nine-run over/under). Josh Donaldson, Troy Tulowitzki, Edwin Encarnacion and Devon Travis are all stackable.
Starting pitchers:
Kyle Hendricks, CHC - (See "5 Things")
Lance McCullers, HOU - If you are focusing on the early slate, McCullers is your man. He's struck out at least six batters in seven consecutive outings. He's 2-1 with a 2.37 ERA in his five home starts in 2016.
Danny Salazar, CLE - Salazar has two more chances to solidify himself as the AL's starting pitcher in this year's All-Star game. First, he must face a team that he's always struggled against, Detroit. In his career, Salazar is 3-4 with a 4.57 ERA when facing the Tigers. However, he is 5-1 with a 1.69 ERA at home this season and has struck out at least seven batters in four of the past five outings.
Julio Urias, LAD - He's notched at least six strikeouts in five straight starts. Also, as noted in the "5 Things" section, Baltimore will be without the DH position tonight.
Jake Peavy, SF - Strictly for two-SP sites, I'll give an endorsement to Peavy. His price tag on DraftKings is extremely low ($5,600). I even recommended Peavy in my fantasy baseball two-start pitcher piece yesterday.
Catchers:
Brian McCann, NYY - He has a .208 ISO against right-handed pitchers this season.
Willson Contreras, CHC - He has a .341 wOBA against lefties in 2016.
Chris Herrmann, ARI - He has a .219 ISO against righties this year.
Cameron Rupp, PHI - He has a .221 ISO against righties this season.
First basemen:
David Ortiz, BOS - He has a .388 ISO and .485 wOBA against righties this season.
Edwin Encarnacion, TOR - He has a .254 ISO against righties this year.
Paul Goldschmidt, ARI - Goldy has a .219 ISO against righties this year.
Anthony Rizzo, CHC - He has a .255 ISO against lefties in 2016.
Second basemen:
Jose Altuve, HOU - (See "5 Things")
Brett Lawrie, CWS - He has a .204 ISO against lefties this year.
Devon Travis, TOR - He has a .264 ISO against righties this season.
Third basemen:
Todd Frazier, CWS - He has a remarkable .409 ISO against southpaws this season.
Kris Bryant, CHC - He has a .323 ISO against lefties this year.
Josh Donaldson, TOR - He has a .295 ISO against righties this season.
Jake Lamb, ARI - He has a .336 ISO and a .426 wOBA against righties in 2016.
Miguel Sano, MIN - He has a .211 ISO against righties this year.
Shortstops:
Javier Baez, CHC - He has a .241 ISO and a .425 wOBA against lefties this season.
Troy Tulowitzki, TOR - He has a .255 ISO against righties this year.
Jean Segura, ARI - He has a .350 wOBA against righties this year.
Didi Gregorius, NYY - He has a .312 wOBA against righties in 2016.
Outfielders:
Carlos Beltran, NYY - "Must-start of the day"
Jackie Bradley Jr., BOS - He has a .297 ISO and a .419 wOBA against righties this season.
Mookie Betts, BOS - He has a .227 ISO against right-handed pitchers this year.
Max Kepler, MIN - He has a .264 ISO against righties this year.
Khris Davis, OAK - He has a .234 ISO against righties this season.
Josh Reddick, OAK - He has a .412 wOBA against right-handed pitchers in 2016.
Starling Marte/Gregory Polanco, PIT - (See "5 Things")
Adam Eaton, CWS - He has a .370 wOBA against lefties in 2016.
Brett Gardner, NYY - It's always a tough decision between Gardner and Ellsbury for me. Gardner is cheaper on DK and has a better ISO and wOBA between the two.
Alex Dickerson, SD - "Deal of the day"
Cody Asche, PHI - He has a .218 ISO against righties this year.