Daily Fantasy Baseball Advice for July 26
Welcome to today's daily fantasy post! Remember that you can find our posts on the new DFS home page, as well as the fantasy page. Bookmark those sites now!
Also, please scroll to the bottom of this article to see the latest tweets from Ryan Fowler (@FOXSportsFowler), D.J. Foster (@FOXSportsFoster), Adam Meyer (@FOXSportsMeyer) and me (@jhalpin37). That way, if information surfaces for any last minute changes, you can see our thoughts instantly.
Let's get to today's interesting facts, using DraftKings prices for the 14-game night slate that does NOT include the Cardinals-Mets doubleheader (no Thor for you!). Please note that much of the information in this post is being published several hours prior to game times, so check MLB lineups later to confirm that any recommended players are included.
5 Things to Watch:
1. SP Marcus Stroman ($8,400) and the Blue Jays are the night's biggest favorite at -230 over the Padres; Stroman has posted 21.4 DK points or more in three of his last four starts ... Streaking Orioles SP Chris Tillman ($8,200) has averaged 22.1 DK points over his last four starts, and faces a Rockies' squad that doesn't hit well on the road ... The highest projected run total is 11 for Tigers-Red Sox, while the lowest is 7.5 for Rays-Dodgers.
2. D-backs 3B Jake Lamb is day-to-day with a bruised left hand, with manager Chip Hale saying on Monday, "we'll be very careful and give him some days off here." Be careful about using Lamb in DFS lineups until you know he's healthy.
3. Prospects Alex Bregman ($3,900) and David Dahl ($2,100) made their MLB debuts on Monday. The powerful Bregman (20 HR in the minors) batted sixth and played third base for the Astros, and he'll get a friendly home matchup tonight against CC Sabathia while being SS-eligible. Dahl (18 HR, 17 SB in the minors) batted sixth and played left field for the Rox, and while he'll face Chris Tillman tonight, don't look for him to play against southpaws.
4. Angels' lefty Tyler Skaggs ($5,600) will face the struggling Royals tonight in his first start since July 2014. Skaggs has posted a 1.56 ERA in nine minor-league rehab starts, whiffing 53 batters and walking just eight in 40 1/3 innings. The Royals have been baseball's worst lineup over the past month, posting a .296 wOBA with a .681 OPS.
5. Yo, BvPers: Michael Bourn ($4,000) is 10-for-21 vs. Matt Garza ... Jay Bruce ($4,900) is eight-for-16 (but with no power) vs. Matt Cain ... Nick Markakis ($3,600) has three homers in 40 at bats vs. Ervin Santana. Teammate Gordon Beckham ($2,800) has three homers in 26 at bats vs. Santana.
Adam Meyer's daily fantasy baseball suggestions...
For those who are unfamiliar with my thought process, I aim to add as many home run hitters as possible to my daily fantasy baseball lineups. One way of doing that is to look at a player's isolated power numbers (ISO). The ISO statistic removes singles and provides a larger weight for each extra-base hit.
I also use the weighted on-base average (wOBA) metric. This stat takes every positive outcome into consideration.
Last year, the league average was a .150 ISO and a .313 wOBA. So, when you see me list a player's ISO or wOBA, you know why I do it.
Yesterday's recap:
The batter suggestions provided zero home runs (my bad), but the pitchers were decent. Dallas Keuchel pitched struck out five in 7.2 innings of work against the Yankees.
Must-start of the day: Ryan Braun, MIL
The price is steep, but the investment is necessary. He has a .222 ISO and a .423 wOBA against lefties this year. Braun is also batting .440 (11-25) with five stolen bases in the past week.
Deal of the day: Josh Reddick, OAK
It's common for DraftKings and FanDuel to have differences in pricing, but this one is a little Reddick-ulous (sorry). He has a .401 wOBA against righties this year yet he is priced at $2,900 on FD ($5,100 on DK). Nick Martinez is on the hill for Texas tonight. He's allowing left-handed hitters to have a .674 SLG and .326 AVG. Plus, Reddick is 6-12 (.500) with three extra-base hits against Martinez.
Avoid of the day: Adrian Beltre, TEX
He homered twice last night, but Beltre is 3-25 (.120) with zero home runs and seven strikeouts against Sonny Gray.
Stack of the day: Toronto Blue Jays
Yes, we whiffed yesterday. Toronto only scored four runs and the expensive options were a bust. However, it is important to have a short-term memory loss in DFS. This season, Andrew Cashner is 0-4 with a 6.59 ERA on the road. With Joey Bats back in the lineup, I'm stacking him with Edwin Encarnacion and Michael Saunders. Including Josh Donaldson might be too difficult with his price tag.
Starting pitchers:
Chris Archer, TB - He's struck out at least six batters in four of the past five starts. Archer also benefits by facing a DH-less Dodgers lineup.
Marcus Stroman, TOR - His Blue Jays are the biggest favorites of the day (-240). Stroman has also struck out at least six batters in three of the past four games.
Tom Koehler, MIA - In three starts against the Phillies this season, Koehler has a 1.64 ERA with 17 strikeouts in 22 innings of work.
Chris Tillman, BAL - (See "5 Things")
Catchers:
Jonathan Lucroy, MIL - He has a .303 wOBA against lefties this year.
Evan Gattis, HOU - He has a .271 ISO against lefties this season.
First basemen:
David Ortiz, BOS - He has a .382 ISO and a .465 wOBA against righties this season.
Edwin Encarnacion, TOR - He has a .264 ISO against righties this year.
Paul Goldschmidt, ARI - He has a .204 ISO against righties in 2016.
Chris Carter, MIL - He has a .320 ISO against lefties this season.
Second basemen:
Jose Altuve, HOU - He has a .234 ISO and a .453 wOBA against lefties this year.
Jean Segura, ARI - He has a .358 wOBA against righties this season.
Third basemen:
Jake Lamb, ARI - He has a .332 ISO against righties in 2016.
Josh Donaldson, TOR - He has a .288 ISO and a .411 wOBA against righties this season.
Miguel Sano, MIN - He has a .206 ISO against righties this year.
Shortstops:
Xander Bogaerts, BOS - He has a .361 wOBA against righties this year.
Manny Machado, BAL - He has a .246 ISO and a .385 wOBA against righties this season.
Outfielders:
Ryan Braun, MIL - "Must-start of the day."
Jackie Bradley Jr., BOS - He has a .289 ISO and a .409 wOBA against righties this year.
Mookie Betts, BOS - He has a .227 ISO against righties this season.
Josh Reddick, OAK - "Deal of the day."
Mark Trumbo, BAL - He has a .276 ISO and a .399 wOBA against righties in 2016.
Jose Bautista, TOR - "Stack of the day."
Michael Saunders, TOR - "Stack of the day."
Max Kepler, MIN - He has a .305 ISO against righties this year.
Michael Bourn, ARI - (See "5 Things")