D-backs venture into great unknown

June 3, 2013

Minus the fanfare of the NFL Draft before it or the NBA Draft to follow later this month, the three-day Major League Baseball first-year player draft gets underway Thursday night. The Diamondbacks will pick 15th in the first round and also have the 36th selection in the "competitive balance Round A."

The first 73 picks -- first round, Round A, second round -- will take place on Thursday night, with live coverage on MLB Network. Rounds 3 through 10 will be Friday, and rounds 11 through 40 will be Saturday.

There are umpteen legitimate reasons why baseball mock drafts are less prevalent and relevant than their NFL and NBA counterparts -- most importantly, a huge player pool with limited exposure -- but that doesn't mean there's no one out there trying. Four worth mentioning are those at Baseball America, MLB.com, Sports Illustrated and Scout.com.

Baseball America and Scout.com have the D-backs drafting right-handed pitcher Alex Gonzalez out of Oral Roberts; MLB.com goes with high school shortstop J.P. Crawford out of Lakewood, Calif.; and SI.com has them taking left-handed-hitting high school first baseman Dominic Smith out of Serra, Calif.

The MLB Draft is a true crapshoot with almost no guarantees. Since the turn of the century, the most successful players taken at No. 15 have been Chase Utley (2000, Phillies), Scott Kazmir (2002, Mets) and Stephen Drew (2004, D-backs). Going further back, notable 15th picks include Chris Carpenter by the Blue Jays in 1993, Leon Durham by the Cubs in 1976 and Jim Rice by the Red Sox in 1971.

Closer to home, none of the 15th picks over the past five years have yet to make an impact at the major league level: High school pitcher Ethan Martin by the Dodgers in 2008, college pitcher Alex White by the Indians in 2009, high school outfielder Jake Skole by the Rangers in 2010, college pitcher Jed Bradley by the Brewers in 2011 and college outfielder Tyler Naquin by the Indians in 2012.

All things considered, probably best not to get your hopes up too high, D-backs fans.

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Baseball America, by the way, rates this as a three-star (solid, not spectacular) year for the state of Arizona.

Generally regarded as the top prospect this year is Gilbert High graduate and University of New Mexico corner infielder D.J. Peterson -- ranked as the No. 11 overall prospect by MLB.com and No. 15 by Baseball America. D.J.'s younger brother, Dustin Peterson, a shortstop from Gilbert High who has committed to ASU, is ranked as a top-75 prospect by both sites.

Other local players of interest ranked among the top 100 prospects are ASU pitcher Trevor Williams, Mesa Desert Ridge shortstop Riley Unroe and Chandler Hamilton first baseman Cody Bellinger.

The University of Arizona has three prospects ranked among Baseball America's top 500: third baseman Brandon Dixon (154), pitcher Konner Wade (403) and outfielder Johnny Field (422). ASU has two: Williams (74) and catcher Max Rossiter (475).

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