Brewers could be right team to limit Hamilton, Reds on basepaths
Cincinnati's Billy Hamilton leads all of Major League Baseball with 40 stolen bases (he has 14 more than anyone else). He also has been caught stealing only six times, a roughly 87% success rate.
While Brandon Phillips doesn't steal nearly as often, he still has been successful on 11 of 12 attempts.
Speed is a big part of Cincinnati's game, especially when Hamilton gets on base. But are the Brewers the kind of team to stop Hamilton and the Reds' running game?
The statistics say the Brewers have a decent chance.
Milwaukee is tied for fourth in the majors in lowest opponent stolen base percentage. The order: 1. Yankees, 65.1%; 2. Tigers, 65.3%; 3. Red Sox, 65.6%; 4. Brewers and Rays, 66.2%. The league average is 72%.
With Jonathan Lucroy behind the dish, opponents have been successful on steals 62.7% of the time. When it is Martin Maldonado, 63.6%. So, yes, if you take just those two, Milwaukee has the best catching tandem in MLB when it comes to opponents trying to steal (if you are wondering, Juan Centero failed to throw out any of the three attempted steals against him).
But a runner doesn't just steal off a catcher. The pitcher --€“ and how well he holds the runner on --€“ is a factor as well.
Milwaukee's best chance to limit Hamilton and Phillips appears to be when just-called up David Goforth (0% success rate, 0 for 2) and Michael Blazek (40%, 2 for 5) are on the mound.
The three scheduled starters for the Brewers in this series? Kyle Lohse is the best among all Milwaukee starters at 50% success rate (4 of 8). Jimmy Nelson is at 73% (11 of 15) and Taylor Jungmann 63% (7 of 11).
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