Bold Prediction: Joe Kelly will not win Cy Young Award

At January’s Red Sox fan fest, Joe Kelly predicted that he was going to win the Cy Young Award. And everyone in baseball had the same reaction.

“Who is Joe Kelly?”

Joe Kelly, for those unfamiliar, is Boston’s 5th starter. Kelly pitched less than 100 innings last year, with a 4.20 ERA. Wait, but what was his FIP? 4.37. Oh. Gross.

If that kind of marginal performance is all you need to make a prediction like that, this column is going to win a Pulitzer.

Whether or not Kelly puts up the statistics to earn himself the unlikely award, it’s not even a stat-based award. Writers vote on the Cy Young. And while I’ve never cast a ballot, I would guess “crazy amount of ego” doesn’t break the tie.

But Kelly couldn’t have said, “I’m going to win the Cy Young this year.” He must have said something that hinted at that guarantee, and the whole thing was blown out of proportion. Let me just look it up. /Googles “Joe Kelly ridiculous claim"

Hey, it turns out those were his exact words. Oh. Gross.

Not only did Kelly tell two radio hosts he’d win the Cy Young, he said, "When I win it, you heard it here first.” And he later reiterated that prediction to writers, just in case everyone thought it was a dream.

So how is Joe Kelly doing? About as well as the Red Sox. Kelly started his 2015 campaign with seven innings of one-hit, one-run ball against the Yankees. Great first impression. And then his season started looking like someone you thought was hot before they turned around. Oh. Gross.

Kelly followed up his great first impression with a shortened start against the Orioles, but he still looked pretty good. Then Kelly gave up five runs against the Rays. Then five more runs against the Blue Jays. But then Sunday, he was facing the Yankees again. So it’d all be okay, right? Nope, five more runs.

That’s no problem – Kelly can give up five runs every single start and still win the Cy Young. As long as he pitches at least 15 innings per game.

In his last start, Kelly didn’t even make it out of the 5th inning. If Joe Kelly is 2015’s Cy Young, then expect me to be speaking at the White House Correspondents' Dinner next year. Of course that is just a joke – I’ve got way more of a chance than he does.

Maybe things will change once Kelly gets out of the A.L. East. You know – once he starts facing weaker hitters like Miguel Cabrera, Jose Altuve, Prince Fielder, and Nelson Cruz.

It’s possible that Kelly was kidding both times he said it, or it’s all part of some elaborate performance-art piece. More likely, he knew he was being ridiculous, but was saying it to grab headlines or endear himself to fans who might not have heard of him otherwise. But if he had promised to be the best pitcher in the division, I still wouldn’t have believed him. Hell, I wouldn’t have believed him if he promised he’d be the best pitcher in the back half of Boston’s rotation.

At least he’s still got a shot at that. Maybe.