Badgers face tough march through East Region
Wisconsin begins play on Thursday in the NCAA tournament with hopes of making a special run through the big dance, and the Badgers certainly have the talent to make that a reality.
Point guard Jordan Taylor is one of the best at his position in the country, and big men Jared Berggren and Ryan Evans have become double-digit scorers in the Badgers' rotation. Guards Josh Gasser and Ben Brust can stretch defenses with their ability to make 3-pointers, Mike Bruesewitz is a bulldog on the boards, and Rob Wilson has emerged as a legitimate scoring threat and the team's surprise sixth man.
All the pieces will have to come together perfectly for the Badgers, but they're fully capable of storming through their side of the bracket.
A look at some of Wisconsin's possible East Region opponents, and why the fourth-seeded Badgers (24-9) can win or lose each game:
Round of 64: No. 4 Wisconsin vs. No. 13 Montana, 1:10 p.m. CT Thursday, Albuquerque, N.M.
No. 13 Montana (25-6):
Why Wisconsin wins: The Badgers have done an excellent job all season of beating teams they were expected to beat. Other than two surprising losses to Iowa, here are the teams that have defeated Wisconsin, with NCAA tournament seed in parentheses: Michigan State three times (No. 1 seed), North Carolina (No. 1), Ohio State (No. 2), Marquette (No. 3) and Michigan (No. 4). The Badgers did beat these NCAA tournament teams earlier in the season: BYU (No. 14), UNLV (No. 6), Purdue (No. 6), Ohio State (No. 2) and Indiana twice (No. 4). The point is, Wisconsin is expected to win on Thursday against Montana and therefore should win. The Badgers are nine-point favorites, according to Las Vegas oddsmakers. Plus, they're 9-1 in opening round games in the Bo Ryan era. As long as Wisconsin sticks to its defensive principles and makes a few shots, the team should be fine.
Why Montana wins: It's not so far-fetched to believe Montana can spring a monumental upset in the opening round. For starters, a No.13 seed has beaten a No. 4 seed in six of the last seven NCAA tournaments. Since 2001, it has happened 11 times. On the court, Montana's style of play mirrors the way in which Wisconsin plays. The Grizzlies are the top defensive team in the Big Sky, leading the conference in scoring defense, field-goal percentage defense and 3-point percentage defense. Wisconsin has shown a propensity to miss 3-point shots, and that could keep the Grizzlies close. Montana head coach Wayne Tinkle says his two star players, Will Cherry and Kareem Jamar, possess “Pac-12-level talent,” which won't hurt the Grizzlies' cause. Montana is also no stranger to the NCAA tournament, having made the big dance just two seasons ago. An underdog that feels it belongs with the big dogs always has a chance in a one-and-done tournament.
Round of 32: No. 4 Wisconsin vs. No. 5 Vanderbilt or No. 12 Harvard, Saturday, Albuquerque, N.M.
No. 5 Vanderbilt (24-10):
Why Wisconsin wins:
Vanderbilt doesn't know what it's like to win in the NCAA tournament. The Commodores have been to the big dance in each of the past two seasons and come away with losses in their first game. Wisconsin, meanwhile, has won five consecutive opening round games and reached the Sweet 16 a year ago. Even if Vanderbilt wins its first game, the Commodores already had their Super Bowl moment by beating Kentucky in the SEC tournament championship. It marked Vanderbilt's first SEC tournament title since 1961, so this season is already a success. On the court, 6-11 center Festus Ezeli is prone to foul trouble — he has fouled out in three of the last five games. Similar foul trouble against Wisconsin would give the Badgers the opportunity to take control in the paint.
Why Vanderbilt wins: The SEC tournament may have been Vanderbilt's Super Bowl, but who's to say the Commodores will stop there? Connecticut won its conference tournament title a year ago and rode that momentum all the way to a national championship. Vanderbilt certainly has the players to give Wisconsin fits. John Jenkins, a 6-foot-4 junior, has made more 3-pointers (129) than any other player in the country. That's 3.9 made 3s per game. And if the Badgers focus their defensive energy strictly on Jenkins, the rest of the team can make Wisconsin pay. Players other than Jenkins have made 159 3-pointers for Vanderbilt. The Commodores also are capable of some pretty impressive defensive performances. Vanderbilt held Auburn to 35 points, Georgia to 41, Tennessee to 47 and South Carolina to 48. The Commodores are certainly capable of holding Wisconsin's slow-pace attack under 50 as well.
No. 12 Harvard (26-4):
Why Wisconsin wins:
If Harvard is able to upset Vanderbilt, should we really believe the Crimson could do it twice? Harvard hasn't even been to the NCAA tournament since 1946, and the team doesn't exactly play a Big Ten-caliber schedule in the Ivy League. Harvard doesn't have a starter taller than 6-foot-8, which means Wisconsin should be able to score inside. The Crimson rank 269th in the nation in rebounds per game. Badgers guard Jordan Taylor would be the best guard on the floor and should have his way offensively.
Why Harvard wins: This isn't your father's Harvard team. These guys can play, and if you don't believe it, ask Florida State, which lost 46-41 to Harvard earlier in the season. Coach Tommy Amaker has done a fantastic job of stacking Harvard with talent, and the Crimson have improved each year since Amaker arrived before the 2007-08 season. They have gone from 8-22 to 14-14 to 21-8 to 23-7 to 26-4. Kyle Casey, a 6-7 junior, was a first-team All-Ivy League selection, and teammates Brandyn Curry and Keith Wright were second-teamers. While Wisconsin finished first in the country in scoring defense (52.9 points), Harvard finished fourth (54.8). A game that slow could come down to one possession, and in that situation, anything is possible.
Sweet 16 possibility: No. 4 Wisconsin vs. No. 1 Syracuse, Boston, Mass.
Syracuse (31-2):
Why Wisconsin wins:
If this matchup does materialize, the biggest question mark surrounding Syracuse is how the team will fare without starting 7-foot center Fab Melo. Melo was ruled academically ineligible just before the start of the NCAA tournament, and this isn't the first time his grades have been an issue. Melo missed three games in January, and the Orange looked susceptible, finishing 2-1 in that stretch. Syracuse thrives on a 2-3 zone that often forces opponents into taking 3-pointers. The Badgers have no problem shooting from long range and have six players that have made at least 20 3-pointers this season. Plus, Wisconsin is patient enough offensively to find whatever holes exist in the Orange zone over the course of a 35-second shot clock.
Why Syracuse wins: Based on sheer athleticism, the Orange should have no problem flying around the court against Wisconsin, which would be an underdog in this game. Melo may not be available, but Syracuse has plenty of weapons to make up for his absence. Syracuse's best player is arguably 6-4 sophomore Dion Waiters, and he doesn't even start. The only players to have started every game for Syracuse this season — Kris Joseph, Brandon Triche and Scoop Jardine — average fewer points than they did last season. That means the Orange are comfortable sharing the ball, and they may have too many scorers for Wisconsin to keep pace.
Elite Eight possibilities: No. 4 Wisconsin vs. No. 2 Ohio State or No. 3 Florida State, Boston, Mass.
No. 2 Ohio State (27-7):
Why Wisconsin wins:
It already happened once. Wisconsin defeated Ohio State 63-60 on Feb. 26 in Columbus, Ohio. Badgers big man Jared Berggren caused problems with his ability to step out and shoot the 3, and he drilled the go-ahead bucket with just 31 seconds remaining in the game. Wisconsin point guard Jordan Taylor played like the All-American tag he earned in the preseason, getting the best of Buckeyes point guard Aaron Craft with 19 points, five rebounds and four assists. Wisconsin proved it had the ability to play with the best in the Big Ten by winning this game, and it surely would give the Badgers confidence if they were to see a rematch with the Buckeyes.
Why Ohio State wins: It already happened once. Ohio State defeated Wisconsin 58-52 on Feb. 4 in Madison, Wis., ending a nine-game losing streak there. Jared Sullinger has proven to be difficult for Wisconsin to stop, and he was especially tough in the first matchup, when he tallied a double-double with 24 points and 10 rebounds. Ohio State has more consistent scorers than Wisconsin, with Sullinger (17.6 points), Deshaun Thomas (15.4) and William Buford (14.7) leading the way. The Buckeyes shoot 48.6 percent from the floor, and they seem fine to take as long as they need to score against Wisconsin's slow tempo.
No. 3 Florida State (24-9):
Why Wisconsin wins:
Florida State is careless with the basketball. Wisconsin is not. The Seminoles like to get out and go, but they also turn the ball over 16.3 times per game — the most for any team in this year's NCAA tournament. Wisconsin plays an entirely different brand of basketball than Florida State, and it could simply become a case of the Badgers' will winning out. Many thought North Carolina, another ACC team, would blow Wisconsin out of the water when the teams met in Chapel Hill in November. Instead, the Badgers made the Tar Heels play their pace and nearly pulled the upset. A similar situation could happen against Florida State.
Why Florida State wins: Few teams in college basketball are hotter than Florida State, particularly after the Seminoles rolled to an ACC tournament championship for the first time since joining the league in 1991. Florida State beat both Duke and North Carolina twice this season, becoming the first team in 16 years to achieve that feat. This team has shooters all over the place, from Michael Snear to Deividas Dulkys to Luke Loucks. Bernard James, 6-10 senior, is a load inside. The Seminoles have been battle tested, and it wouldn't be a surprise to most if they make a run all the way to the Final Four.