All-Purpose Playbook: NFL Week 1 Betting Buffet

Welcome to the All-Purpose Playbook, a new Buzzer column that is (1) either a guide to many things NFL and wagering, such as survivor pools and teasers and bad bets, or (2) a road map to hell.

It may be both. We're about to find out.

Rule No. 1 of survivor pools is to just survive and advance (and really, the only rule). Rule No. 2 is to NEVER, EVER, trust the Lions or Giants in a survivor pool. But mainly, let rule No. 1 govern your decisions.

It's a mind-numbingly obvious point, sure, but I'm always amazed to see when participants take wild risks early in the season — and especially in Week 1. Sometimes risks are worth taking, such as in Week 8 or later when the pool has shrunk to 10 percent of its original size and you identify a decent favorite when the rest of the pool has crowded into a possible upset game. (I'm going to assume for the most part that you're in a common-sized pool with about 30 and 100 participants).

The first two weeks are unpredictable enough with personnel and coaching changes. Just take a veteran-led home team against an inferior opponent, and live to die another day (a phrase chosen specifically so I could post a Halle Berry picture from her turn as a Bond Babe). Let's call it the Halle Berry Principle.

Halle Berry at the premiere of "Die Another Day" at the Shrine Auditorium in Los Angeles, Ca. Monday, Nov. 11, 2002. 

Don't "save" a top team for later in the season. That's like going to a knife fight with a knife and a gun and saving the gun because you first want to try to stab a guy with a dull blade (boy, this got violent quickly.)

That brings us to Week 1. The obvious and probably most popular pick will be the Philadelphia Eagles (-10.5) at home against the Jacksonville Jaguars, who aren't as terrible as you think. Any time the team you pick against can reasonably be described as "not as terrible as you think," you're generally on the right track. Bottom line, the Jaguars are pretty mediocre, with a porous defense and a revamped but still terrible offensive line that will aim to gel for Chad "Hey, I'm Not Blaine Gabbert" Henne until the team throws rookie Blake Bortles into the fire.

The defending NFC East champion Eagles have a lot of offensive weapons even without deportee DeSean Jackson. They have a solid defensive front led by Trent Cole, Connor Barwin and Fletcher Cox — who will bring pressure.

You know Philly coach Chip Kelly has been itching since April to unveil some crazy, new up-tempo plays. Remember early last season when he used Rocky, Phillie Phanatic and Fresh Prince of Bel Air posters to signal play calls? I'm expecting another grab bag of pop culture mayhem and 50 first-half plays. Maybe Kelly throws in a Ron Jeremy poster for lookalike and Jaguars owner Shahid Khan.

If you're in only one survivor pool, Philadelphia is the smart play. 

If you're in multiple pools and don't want all your beans in one burrito, or if you want to be a contrarian, or if you happen to have psychic abilities and learned that Matt Barkley will end up under center in the second half, I'd give a look to the Chicago Bears (-7) at home vs. the Buffalo Bills and New York Jets (-5.5) home against the Oakland Raiders. The Bills D is going to face a potent Bears offense without two key defenders from last season — standout rookie linebacker Kiko Alonso who suffered a torn ACL and three-time Pro Bowl free safety Jairus Byrd who left for New Orleans in free agency.

The Jets have a very strong front seven and face a rookie quarterback starting (Derek Carr) his first NFL game on the other side of the country. Rex Ryan is salivating. That's right — I'm not even going to follow up with a weight joke.

Just what it sounds like: Here I'm going to pick an underdog who I think will cover the spread. This week it's the Tennessee Titans (+3) visiting the Kansas City Chiefs. Figure the Chiefs are getting a field goal for home-field advantage, so it's got the look and feel of a pretty even matchup.

The Chiefs defense was a force in the first half of 2013 until it came crumbling down, culminating with a nuclear apocalypse in its AFC Wild-Card matchup against the Colts when the team blew a 28-point, third-quarter lead in a 45-44 loss. The demise coincided with injuries to linebackers Justin Houston and Tamba Hali, but the secondary is so-so and the offense may as well be called Jamaal Charles plus some other dudes. Meanwhile Tennessee is a team on the rise with a pair of talented young wide receivers in Kendall Wright and Justin Hunter, plus they even added former Chiefs playmaker Dexter McCluster. Take the points here.

It's called "ill-advised" because teasers are inherently unwise and risky bets, but hey, gambling is fun, which is pretty much the point of this entire column. For responsible, money-growing commentary, go here. (And go here if you need an explanation on a "teaser" bet.) Each week I'm going to pick a two-team, six-point teaser using either spreads or totals.

Let's kick it off with a Chargers-Bengals teaser special. San Diego (+3 at Arizona*) has become somewhat of a semi-darling among prognosticators and pundits thanks to resurgence of San Diego QB Philip Rivers, big time 2013 performances by receiver Keenan Allen and tight end Lardarius Green, the fact they're returning the entire offense, the addition of Brandon Flowers to the secondary, and so on. Meanwhile, the Cardinals are coming off a solid season in a brutal division; they lost defensive end Darnell Dockett for the season with an ACL injury (that's the last thing his Twitter account needed — more time), but they added tackle Jared Veldheer to a shaky offensive line. I see this as a field-goal game and wouldn't be surprised to see San Diego win outright, which is why I'm teasing the Chargers up to +9. It's a new regime under head coach Mike McCoy.

As for the Cincinnati Bengals (+1.5 at the Ravens)? Defensive tackle Geno Atkins (ACL injury last year) returns to action against a highly mediocre Ravens offensive line. The Bengals had a pretty solid defensive squad without him with Vontaze Burfict emerging as one of the best linebackers in the league. Cincy has a lot of offensive weapons and with a six-point tease, you'll get it to 7.5, so even a touchdown loss makes it a winner.

So it's: Chargers +9, Bengals +7.5

*Update: This line will probably change as it appears Cardinals starting running back Andre Ellington injured his foot in practice Thursday and may miss some time. I would still take the Chargers here unless they become favored, which is unlikely.

. . . On the Dallas-San Francisco game. Dallas is getting five points at home, which is basically Vegas' version of a shrug. Here's a headline from Friday's Fort Worth Star-Telegram, referencing defensive coordinator Rod Marinelli: "Marinelli calls defense's mounting woes 'challenging.' "

And here's Marinelli's vote of confidence for cornerback Morris Claiborne, on how he'll handle the starting job. "Well, he's there," Marinelli said. "He's our starting corner. That's the confidence. He's gotta go do it."

That's all just brutal and the regular season has not yet started. Marinelli may as well have said "he's a sentient being" or "he's on payroll" or "hey, he's not dead."

So why not lay the points with San Fran? Because they've got problems of their own. Talented but troubled linebacker Aldon Smith is gone for the first nine games, starting right guard Alex Boone held out for a new contract until this past Tuesday and has to get back to game shape, Michael Crabtree is nursing a calf injury and they generally endured one heck of an offseason. That's a lot of points to lay on the road in Week 1.

Don't go near this one, or this will be you afterward, a la Marinelli: "Well, I bet it."

Here I'll try to point out some non-obvious plays. Clearly you're going to start the likes of LeSean McCoy, and Lord help you if you're already starting Browns rusher Terrance West. With these picks, I'll aim for somewhere in between.

Sneaky starts of the week:

(1) Anquan Boldin (WR, 49ers) has been underrated his entire career.  I still can't figure out why the Ravens traded him after he proved a key component of their Super Bowl run. Even when he was rated highly he was underrated. How many guys can break their face and come back three weeks later? Anyhow, with Crabtree possibly a bit hobbled against a horrible Sean Lee-less Dallas defense that allowed a second-to-worst 33 passing touchdowns last year and a third-worst 4,835 yards, I'll take Boldin in the shootout.

(2) Mark Ingram (RB, Saints) showed some flashes from his Alabama days in the preseason and may have come around in his pro career. He's now listed No. 1 RB on the Saints depth chart and may get the bulk of the carries, a plum spot when facing Atlanta's brutal rushing defense, which allowed 136 rushing yards per game and 4.8 per tote in 2013.

(3) Jared Cook (TE, Rams) faces a Minnesota Vikings defense that allowed 13 touchdowns to tight ends in 2013, 81 receptions and 841 yards. With QB Shaun Hill stepping in for injured Sam Bradford, I think Jeff Fisher might keep the offense vanilla and dial up some Cook who's a big target at 6-foot-5 and who saw a healthy 86 targets last season.

That's all for this week, fellas. Follow me on twitter @brettsmiley

Comment, question, suggestion for something to cover next week? Hit me up at basmiley [at] gmail [dot] com