ALDS preview: Tigers vs. A's
Oakland and Detroit, one more time.
After 105 seasons that saw the two franchises never compete in a close pennant race, and only face each other once in the postseason -- Oakland winning the 1972 ALCS -- they've now become quite familiar with each other in October.
In 2006, it was another ALCS matchup, dominated by Detroit and finished by Magglio Ordonez's pennant-winning walk-off homer in Game 4 at Comerica Park.
Last season, it was Justin Verlander's four-hit shutout in Game 5 of the ALDS that sealed the series after Oakland's dramatic ninth-inning rally kept them alive in Game 4.
For the third straight time in the Beane/Leyland era, Oakland goes into the series with home-field advantage -- something that didn't help them in 2006 or 2012.
Both teams are concerned with the health of a key player -- Yoenis Cespedes is expected to play for Oakland despite a sore shoulder, while Miguel Cabrera will be on the field for the Tigers despite what is rumored to be a sports hernia.
Here's a breakdown of the ALDS between Detroit and Oakland, with Game 1 set for 9:37 p.m. ET on Friday at O.co Coliseum.
1. Starting lineup
The Tigers finished second in runs in the American League, thanks in great parts to the efforts of Cabrera.
He hasn't been able to run faster than a slow jog since late July, but still won his third straight batting title with a .348 average, led the American League in on-base percentage (.442) and slugging percentage (.636), and only missed a second straight Triple Crown because of Chris Davis. He's clearly the best hitter in baseball, and probably the best to don a Tigers uniform since Hank Greenberg.
Austin Jackson scored 99 runs in the leadoff spot despite being limited to 129 games by injury, while Torii Hunter hit .304 in the second spot.
Behind Cabrera, the Tigers have Prince Fielder's 106 RBIs and Victor Martinez, who missed 2012 with a knee injury, but hit .361 after the All-Star break.
Detroit also has a pair of .300 hitters later in the order in Omar Infante (.318) and Jhonny Peralta (.303), although the latter lost his starting spot after his PED suspension.
Oakland was right behind the Tigers in runs scored, finishing third, and hit more homers than the star-studded Detroit lineup. They don't have one hitter that terrifies pitchers like Cabrera -- no one does -- but Josh Donaldson hit .301 with power and walks, while Brandon Moss (30), Cespedes (26) and Coco Crisp (22) all hit at least 20 homers.
Crisp's leadoff homer in Game 1 last season was the only run Oakland got against Verlander in 16 innings, which shouldn't have been a surprise. In his career, Crisp is hitting .318 with an .814 OPS against the Tigers, and he's the only real base-stealing threat in either lineup. Oakland also has a deeper lineup than Detroit, which has holes at catcher and left field.
THE EDGE: Detroit
2. Rotation
Justin Verlander won the Cy Young and MVP two years ago, nearly won another Cy Young in 2012 and finished 2013 with a more-than-respectable 3.46 ERA. That only barely makes him Detroit's third-best starting pitcher.
This time, it will be Cy Young-favorite Max Scherzer and his 21-3 record getting the ball in Game 1, and possibly Game 5, and AL ERA champ Anibal Sanchez pitching the first game at Comerica Park.
Scherzer's gaudy win-loss mark is a product of great run support -- he's the first to say so -- but he also led AL pitchers in WAR, so he's far from just a creation of his offense.
As a matter of fact, as much as WAR has been derided in Detroit for picking Mike Trout over Cabrera in each of the last two seasons, it loves the Tigers pitching staff.
Not only are Scherzer and Sanchez ranked 1-2 in the American League, Verlander finished fourth and Doug Fister was eighth. Even Rick Porcello, now banished to the bullpen, was 20th, ahead of all but one Oakland starter.
Oakland's ace is the rotund 40-year-old, Bartolo Colon. After serving his own PED suspension last year, Colon bounced back with a 2.65 ERA and an appearance in the All-Star Game.
He doesn't have the big strikeout numbers of the Tigers rotation, but he doesn't walk batters and he doesn't give up homers.
In Game 2, the A's will go with rookie Sonny Gray, who just might be their best pitcher. Gray didn't make his first career start until August 10, but he's posted a 2.85 ERA since then, and has the big strikeout arm that Oakland needs.
With A.J. Griffin hurt, Oakland will go with Jarrod Parker in Game 3 and Dan Straily in Game 4 -- both league-average pitchers at best.
THE EDGE: Detroit
3. Bullpen
Detroit's bullpen has been an unending cause of problems for Jim Leyland, who didn't even find a closer until June. After disasters with Bruce Rondon, Phil Coke and Jose Valverde, 35-year-old Joaquin Benoit finally got his first shot at closing, and ran off 22 straight saves.
He blew two in the last week of the season, though, worrying Tigers fans who saw him prone to prolonged slumps as Detroit's set-up man a year ago.
Benoit's replacement in the eighth-inning role turned out to be, of all people, Drew Smyly. The lefty lost the fifth-starter job to Porcello in spring training, and was sent to the bullpen to pitch long relief. He did that so well that he eventually earned the set-up job, and went 6-0 with a 2.37 ERA.
Jose Veras, who started the year as Houston's closer, gives Detroit a third solid reliever, but it gets ugly after that.
Al Alburquerque's slider is unhittable at times and uncontrollable at others, while Porcello has very little experience as a reliever.
Rondon and Coke are both out with elbow problems, so the Tigers won't have Rondon's 103-mph fastball or any lefty that can be trusted to get one out in the middle innings.
Oakland is led by the rage of Grant Balfour, who finished with 38 saves, and can throw tough relievers at a team for several innings at a time.
Sean Doolittle, Ryan Cook and Jerry Blevins all had ERAs of 3.15 or better in extensive work, and Doolittle and Blevins are both lefties, giving Bob Melvin more room to maneuver than Jim Leyland.
Dan Otero showed up in mid-June and put up a 1.38 ERA in middle relief down the stretch, while Jesse Chavez gives Oakland another usable part in the middle innings.
Brett Anderson, will be the long man after injuries moved him into the bullpen. He's not reliable, but he can eat valuable innings in a blowout.
THE EDGE: Oakland
4. Bench
Peralta's return from suspension is crucial for the Tigers, because it gives them one useful pinch-hitting threat in the late innings.
Peralta worked on learning leftfield while away from the team, but with Oakland starting four right-handed pitchers, he's expected to be coming off the bench against Oakland. He's a good hitter with doubles power and walks, and he can play shortstop and third base and can get by in left.
Behind him, there's utility man/cult hero Don Kelly, back-up catcher Brayan Pena and a pair of light-hitting infielders, Ramon Santiago and Hernan Perez.
Perez is around to pinch-run for Martinez or Cabrera, while Santiago's quiet competence has taken him from Detroit's 119-loss season ten years ago to joining Verlander, Greenberg and Tommy Bridges as the only Tigers to reach the postseason four times.
Oakland's bench is going to be interesting, with Melvin planning to keep two backup catchers. Stephen Vogt will platoon with normal starter Derek Norris, although Vogt probably won't start against Detroit's all-righty rotation.
Late-season pickup Kurt Suzuki will be the defensive specialist of the group, especially if Norris moves to first base late in the game.
Alberto Callaspo gives Oakland a switch-hitting utility man with a decent bat, while Seth Smith could be valuable if he can break out of the slump that saw him hit .211 after the All-Star break. Daric Barton is another switch-hitter who can draw a walk and fill in at first base.
THE EDGE: Oakland
5. Intangibles
Leyland is the first Tigers manager to get to the postseason four times and the first since Hughie Jennings in 1907-09 to do it three years in a row.
The only thing missing from this group's resume is a World Series ring, and they will be looking to get another shot at that after the disaster against St. Louis in 2006 and San Francisco last year.
In Hunter and Martinez, they also have a pair of clubhouse leaders that they needed a year ago when things started to go wrong against the Giants.
Oakland is never supposed to be playing in October, given one of baseball's smallest payrolls, yet they keep showing up under Billy Beane's guidance.
They haven't had much success in the playoffs -- the last World Series title came in the Canseco/McGwire era, and they've got to deal with the two recent postseason losses to Detroit.
They could have given themselves a nice step up with a four-game sweep of the Tigers in Detroit in August, but Detroit won the fourth game 7-6 on Hunter's walk-off three-run homer off Balfour.
THE EDGE: Detroit
Final Prediction
Oakland might have a better bullpen and a better bench, and they match Detroit better on offense than most people would expect.
Playoff baseball, though, often comes down to pitching, and no one in baseball has a better rotation than the Tigers.
Last season, Verlander, Scherzer, Sanchez and Fister blew through the American League playoffs, and the award-caliber seasons from Scherzer and Sanchez make up for Verlander's slip from superstar to merely very good.
THE EDGE: Detroit