A five-year review of the ACC in the NBA draft
The NBA draft is far from an exact science. But in general, teams want their first-round picks to stick for many years ... and their second-round choices to be "flier" picks with tangibe upside.
That holds true in the numbers, as 134 of the 150 first-rounders since 2009 are still in the NBA -- compared to just 58 of 150 second-rounders. Of the 90 second-rounders taken from 2009-11, just 27 are still in the NBA and just 13 of the 60 picked from 2010-11.
There are just a handful of undrafted players who get chances to stick with clubs, and many don't last past summer league action. So if you don't hear your name called on Draft Day, you've likely got an uphill battle to achieve your dream of playing in the NBA.
It's an uphill battle anyway. Of the 108 drafted players since 2009 that aren't in the NBA anymore, 32 were international players that chose to either stay overseas or hone their skills overseas for a few years, before jumping to the NBA full-time (Ricky Rubio with the Timberwolves, for example).
That leaves 74 players in the last five seasons who didn't stick, and of those, eight are from the ACC. Meanwhile, of the 192 players that did stick, 32 hail from the ACC.
Particularly impressive is the ACC's retention rate with first-rounders. There are 11 first-round picks since 2009 that are no longer playing and aren't in that international category; and the ACC has just one.
Duke's Nolan Smith was a first-round pick in 2011, but injuries in summer league play in 2012 and 2013 have set him back. He's playing overseas. All told, though, 26 of the league's 27 first-round picks since 2009 are still in the NBA.
Of course, this isn't measuring whether or not the players drafted are "busts," to use the popular term, just whether they're still in the league.
In the last two years, it's even worse -- at least the 2011 ACC class included No. 1 overall pick Kyrie Irving, who's an All-Star point guard for the Cavaliers. In the last two drafts, just one of the ACC's first-round picks has averaged double digits in a season (UNC's John Henson, with 11.1 PPG last year).
There's still plenty of time for the more recent classes to get to that point. The 2013 class included four first-rounders, and just two averaged double-digit minutes.
Comparatively, the previous four classes of first-rounders have averaged double-digit minutes for 77 of the combined 81 seasons they've been in the league. Only two ACC rookies had not averaged double-digit minutes as first-round picks until last season.
The good news: Twenty-one of the ACC's 22 first round picks prior to 2013 (nix Nolan Smith) averaged at least 10 minutes. It's clear there's still a place for them in the NBA, even if some didn't play all 81 games or didn't have a fully defined role.
And all 19 of the ACC's first-round underclassmen are still in the NBA.
The second-rounders from the ACC have understandably had a tougher time, though some are still hanging on.
Counting active players, none of the six ACC second-rounders picked since 2009 averaged double figures last year, and only one of the 13 picked had a double-figure season (San Antonio's Danny Green, the success story out of North Carolina).
Four of the six second-rounders still in the league, though, averaged double-digit minutes last year. And of the seven second-rounders that couldn't make it work long-term in the NBA, four were from the 2010 class.
None of the ACC's four second-round picks are still in the league, and the longest any of them lasted was FSU's Solomon Alabi, who played two seasons.
Five of the nine ACC seniors drafted in the second round have stuck around the league, though, compared to just one of four underclassmen.
And beware of the trap -- often when a player goes undrafted, you hear, "Oh well, he'll catch on with a team in no time." That might have been true a few years ago.
Since 2009-10, 40 undrafted players have played at least one NBA game. But from 2011-14, 41 players who went undrafted have played in a game. It was 14 in both 2013 and 2012, and 13 in 2011.
There's still time for some of those guys to have a stint in Europe and come back, but it's even tougher for them. The ACC has had plenty of undrafted players since 2009 but ultimately, just three have seen action in an NBA game.
In 2013, former Duke sharpshooter Seth Curry played in two games for two different teams. Miami's DeQuan Jones went undrafted in 2012 and played in a few games the next season for the Orlando Magic, but didn't get resigned. Former Wake point guard Ish Smith is the only undrafted ACC player since 2009 that's still in the league, and he played a career-high 70 games last year for the Suns.
The moral of the story is you at least get a chance if you're drafted, even if it's in the second round. Most undrafted players are signed to various summer league teams, but most of them end up getting cut as NBA rosters have to get trimmed before training camp, and then again afterwards.
ACC players in the most recent drafts might not be setting the league on fire, but they've certainly proven they can carve out a role for themselves on an NBA team.
It's all about survival.