50 Shades of Fantasy Football, Vol. VII: Buyin' on the Bye

With fewer injuries and much better production from the early round draft picks, Week 3 of the NFL season had a calming effect on the Fantasy Football community. Now it’s time for Bye weeks to throw a wrench in things.

Week 4 not only signals the beginning of bye weeks, but the start of “buy” weeks as well. There are many viable fantasy players that fellow owners are now looking to trade away. The key question being: Who are the players we should be looking to acquire?

Close your eyes. Relax your shoulders. Deep breath in…..and out.

Feel better?

The fantasy world has begun to stabilize, with Allen Robinson, Coby Fleener, and Aaron Rodgers owners feeling a bit more secure after their respective performances. But with bye weeks finally here, choosing lineups becomes a big trickier. The next time we have a full slate of NFL games is Thanksgiving weekend. How crazy is that?

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If you’ve observed poor performances for one week? That’s a random event. Two weeks? A coincidence. Three weeks? A clear fantasy football trend that demands your attention. Like stock brokers in a bear market, there are fantasy owners just itching to make trades to try to upgrade their teams. This is where the savvy fantasy owner must pounce, and pounce with reckless abandon.

This week’s installment takes a look at those fantasy players owners are likely willing to trade. From quarterbacks to defenses, we examine who you should target and why.

It might sound crazy, but it ain’t no lie, baby… buy on byes!

Nov 15, 2015; Pittsburgh, PA, USA; The Pittsburgh Steelers defense huddles against the Cleveland Browns during the third quarter at Heinz Field. The Steelers won 30-9.Mandatory Credit: Charles LeClaire-USA TODAY Sports

Prediction: After a terrible performance against intrastate rival Philadelphia, the Steelers bounce back with a big win against Kansas City on Sunday Night Football. he Steelers defense, currently 28th in fantasy, has a top-12 performance the next two weeks.

Sep 25, 2016; Jacksonville, FL, USA; Baltimore Ravens quarterback Joe Flacco (5) throws the ball prior to the game against the Jacksonville Jaguars at EverBank Field. Mandatory Credit: Reinhold Matay-USA TODAY Sports

Prediction: The Raiders, after a big win on the road in Tennessee, get drubbed in Baltimore. Joe Flacco has his best week of the season, finishing as a top-12 fantasy QB. Flacco should be owned in all leagues as a great bye week replacement for the next eight weeks.

Next: This IS the Hill to die on

Sep 25, 2016; Cincinnati, OH, USA; Cincinnati Bengals running back Jeremy Hill (32) and offensive tackle Cedric Ogbuehi (70) celebrate in the game against the Denver Broncos in the first half at Paul Brown Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Mark Zerof-USA TODAY Sports

Prediction: Buy Jeremy Hill, like, yesterday. Often overlooked, he is one of the few RB1s that also get the goal-line carries. With a favorable schedule and a lot of home games, Hill will be a top-five fantasy running back the rest of the season.

Sep 25, 2016; Seattle, WA, USA; Seattle Seahawks quarterback Russell Wilson (3) talks to line judge Sarah Thomas (53) during a time out in a game against the San Francisco 49ers at CenturyLink Field. Mandatory Credit: Troy Wayrynen-USA TODAY Sports

Prediction: Russell Wilson is the top buy-low quarterback candidate for the remainder of the season. After the bye week, Wilson will have a repeat performance from last season, and vault himself to a top three quarterback finish by the end of season.

Next: Buy these tight ends on the cheap

Sep 25, 2016; Arlington, TX, USA; Chicago Bears tight end Zach Miller (86) catches a touchdown pass against Dallas Cowboys free safety Byron Jones (31) in the third quarter at AT&T Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Tim Heitman-USA TODAY Sports

Prediction: Pickup Cameron Brate before the other fantasy owners realize what happened. No longer competing with the athletic Seferian-Jenkins, Brate will be a TE1 (top 12) for the rest of the fantasy season.

Next: A Bayou Buy and the Patriot Way

Sep 26, 2016; New Orleans, LA, USA; New Orleans Saints running back Mark Ingram (22) scores a touchdown past Atlanta Falcons linebacker LaRoy Reynolds (53) during the fourth quarter of a game at the Mercedes-Benz Superdome. The Falcons defeated the Saints 45-32. Mandatory Credit: Derick E. Hingle-USA TODAY Sports

Prediction: After a slow start to the season, Ingram’s performance last week is an indicator of the rest of season. Make a trade for Ingram as the starting running back in an explosive Saints attack, and enjoy the RB1 production that follows.

Sep 1, 2016; East Rutherford, NJ, USA; New England Patriots quarterback Tom Brady (12) throws a pass during the first half of their game against the New York Giants at MetLife Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Ed Mulholland-USA TODAY Sports

44. Through the first 12 games of 2015, New England Patriots quarterback Tom Brady was averaging 29.6 fantasy points per game. That made him the number one fantasy football quarterback, more than two points per game higher than Cam Newton (27.4 ppg) over that span.

45. Over each of the past two seasons, Brady’s fantasy production has declined during the last four weeks of the season. In 2014, he averaged 15.5 fantasy points over the last four games. In 2015, he averaged 15.8 fantasy points per game over that same span. One of the reasons for this decline is Brady’s age (currently 39 years old), and the grind of playing a full 16 game schedule.

46. This season, Brady was suspended by the NFL for the first four games of the season. His first game will be next week in Cleveland.

47. Over his career, running back James White has played in 15 games with Brady, and three games without Brady. White is averaging 0.67 more receptions, and 11.54 more receiving yards per game with Brady. This translates to 3.1 more fantasy points in standard scoring leagues, and 3.34 more points in PPR leagues.

48. Patriots running back Dion Lewis has played in seven games with Tom Brady, and 14 games without Tom Brady. Lewis is averaging 6.93 more targets, 4.93 more receptions, and 53.9 more receiving yards per game. This translates to 10.08 more fantasy points in standard scoring leagues, and 15.02 more points in PPR leagues.

49. Lewis is eligible to return from injured reserve in Week 7.

50. Over Tom Brady’s 16 year career, the Patriots have played 17 games without him as starting quarterback. In those games they are averaging 35.9 less passing yards, 0.7 less passing touchdowns, and 3.3 less points per game.

Prediction: Fantasy Football owners have forgotten the impact Brady will have upon his return. The biggest positional boost in fantasy production will come at running back. Once Brady returns in Week Five, both James White and Dion Lewis will be viable starting running backs in any format.