5 Things Fantasy Owners Need to Learn Week 1
Your draft preparation may be over, but it’s not time to stop learning yet. Here are five things fantasy owners need to keep an eye on during the opening week of the NFL season.
1. How do the players coming off major injuries actually look?
Maybe we’ve heard about some of these players and how they’re performing in training camp, or maybe we caught a quick glimpse of them during the preseason, but there’s no replacement for seeing how these guys can handle the full speed of a regular season game.
This year, there are plenty of players coming off major surgery to monitor. Will Jordy Nelson (knee) still have the speed to be a deep threat, or will he be a half-step slower? If Nelson looks gimpy, it might be time to upgrade the other members of Green Bay’s passing game, and maybe even give a third receiver (like Davante Adams) a look on your free agent waiver wire.
Same goes for Arian Foster (Achilles) in Miami. What kind of workload can he handle? Does he look like a fraction of his old self? In shallower leagues, backup running back Jay Ajayi will be on the waiver wire.
Other players to watch: Jamaal Charles, Julian Edelman, Thomas Rawls, Kelvin Benjamin.
2. Which offenses can you pick on?
Streaming defenses is a popular strategy, as it makes sense to target bad offenses each week whenever possible. Week 1 gives us a good idea of which offenses will struggle, particularly because coaches have had weeks to gameplan.
Targeting rookie quarterbacks early on usually makes sense, particularly on the road. But you have to use what you see in the first week to your advantage, and not get too caught up in what you thought heading into the year.
You already drafted your defense for Week 1, but you could easily change that heading into Week 2. Time to get scouting.
3. Who is getting targets and goalline work?
I tend to say this a lot, but fantasy football is all about opportunity. Instead of chasing pure receiving stats, look at the target breakdowns for each team. Chances are, if a player is consistently receiving 7-8 targets a game, he’s going to put up some big days sooner or later.
Yes, you have to be weary of small sample sizes, but don’t let a highly targeted receiver sit on the wire for too long.
The same goes for goalline and third down work. A perfect example last year was how the Chargers handled their running backs, Melvin Gordon and Danny Woodhead. On nearly every passing down situation or anytime the ball was in the red zone, Woodhead would immediately enter the game. It’s no surprise that Woodhead ended up outscoring Gordon, even if the rookie had way more hype come draft time.
There will be situations like that this year, maybe even with running backs you’d never suspect. Remember, see who is getting the majority of the scoring opportunities (receptions, goalline carries) and go with them, whether they’re a big name or not.
4. Who has a new style of play?
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers went with a lot of no-huddle during the preseason. Did they continue that fast-paced attack in Week 1, which should help the passing game put up big numbers?
That’s just an example of things you should keep an eye out for during the first week. Another is looking at how teams are addressing personnel losses. Is Indianapolis going to go away from their two tight end sets now that Coby Fleener is in New Orleans? Will the Patriots run more two-TE sets with Martellus Bennett?
It's not always as simple as “next man up” on the depth chart. Watch closely how teams have adjusted their style of play to different personnel.
5. What does Vegas think?
While it’s not everything, you can usually get a good feel for what Vegas thinks will happen during the regular season based on Week 1 lines. Who are the big favorites? Who are the big underdogs? Which games have massive projected point totals? Those are the teams you want fantasy players on, so keep that in mind when it comes to picking things like kickers, or streaming quarterbacks, or weighing two close waiver wire additions against each other.
2016 Weekly Fantasy Football Rankings