$44 million ain't what it used to be
What would a six-year-old boy do if you gave him a hundred dollars? He would buy a hundred candy bars, and a few hours later he'd be puking his guts up.
The Atlanta Braves are going to be puking their guts up in a few years. That's what happens after you give them $44 million and they buy 2400 Nick Markakis plate appearances.
Over at FanGraphs, Mike Petriello went looking for something we might have missed. He didn't really find much. Still, considering salary inflation and the the corresponding cost of a "win" these days, maybe Markakis really is worth something like $11 million. Next season. After that, though?
Markakis seems like a league-average player. If wins are somewhere around $7 million this winter, you can make the argument that he’s worth $14 million next year. Let’s even call it $15 million, if you really like not striking out. But even if we go with that, he’s already shown that the last two years are the start of his decline. A four-year deal easily takes you to below-average or replacement or worse. It’s hard to see a team coming out ahead on that.
With plenty of poking and prodding, Petriello gets Markakis up to 2 Wins Above Replacement in 2015, which is worth around $14 million. But he's highly unlikely to improve from there. Which means the Braves will be spending $11 million in 2017 and '18 on a player who's contributing zed wins. And zed-win players are worth the major-league minimum, give or take a few heads of lettuce.
They can afford it, just as it seems that every team can afford just about anything. But will they have the will to bench or release Markakis when he's a zed-win player earning $11 million? The Braves' recent history is not encouraging.