2016 Toronto Blue Jays Preview, Fantasy Baseball Draft Prep
On offense, the Blue Jays led MLB in runs scored, 891, and by a wide margin over second -€“ 127 runs - last season. Much like the Orioles, the pitching staff hated to leave the comfy confines of their home park. Opposing hitters posted the worst batting average in MLB when playing at Rogers Centre (.228). However, when the Jays hit the road, opposing hitters' batting average soared 40 points. The .268 opponents' batting average on the road was seventh-highest in baseball.
In case you missed my "American League Did you know" fantasy facts on the Blue Jays, here they are:
- Staff home ERA 3.22 vs. staff away ERA 4.41
- Tulowitzki, Donaldson, Bautista, Encarnacion top of the lineup muscle
- Tulo played in 122 games in 2010, 143 games in 2011, 47 games in 2012, 126 in 2013, 91 games in 2014 and 128 games in 2015. Assume he will miss 20+ games, right?
- Kevin Pillar 12 HR and 25 SB in 2015 (32nd Round Draft Pick)
- Offense didn't provide many save opps, but Robert Osuna and Brett Cecil combined for 25 saves (31 opps) and 16 holds with K/9's north of 9.50, ERAs under 2.60 and WHIPs under 1.00
ALSO SEE: TEAM PREVIEWS ARCHIVE
Projected Lineup
1. Michael Saunders
2. Josh Donaldson
3. Jose Bautista
4. Edwin Encarnacion
5. Troy Tulowitzki
6. Chris Colabello
7. Russell Martin
8. Ryan Goins
9. Kevin Pillar
Saunders could have an uphill climb to win leadoff gig with injury history and career .301 OBP … finding holes in Donaldson’s fantasy resume is a moot point because you’re drafting him … however, he did hit nearly 70 points lower on the road last season (.263) … Bautista has hit more home runs in each of the last four seasons (27, 28, 35, 40) … walk rate is higher than strikeout rate … only hitter with 35-or-more homers that accomplished that last season … Encarnacion is another masher with nearly identical BB (12.3 percent) and K percentages (15.7 percentages) … see Tulo note above … Colabello with the eyebrow-raising .411 BABIP … plus part of a platoon with Smoak … Martin hit career-high 23 homers last season, but also posted second-highest K-rate of his career (20.9 percent) … Devon Travis is the future, not Goins … Travis (shoulder) won’t be ready to start season … thus Goins is a warm body at second for the Jays to start season
Projected Rotation
1. Marcus Stroman
2. R.A. Dickey
3. Marco Estrada
4. J.A. Happ
5. Aaron Sanchez
Stroman popped his ACL in fielding drills four starts into last season … dude is 5-foot-9, but should post a healthy K/9 rate with an offense providing uber-run support … at 41 years old and based on xFIP over 4.00, Dickey should continue to regress in terms of wins and losses despite the thought knuckle-ballers have a longer MLB shelf life … his 5.29 K/9 rate in 2015 was his worst since 2008 when he started 14 games for the Mariners … Estrada won 13 games last season with a 3.13 ERA and 6.51 K/9 … but the red flag comes with the 4.93 xFIP … that ERA regression indicator is worth noting if he can’t get the K/9 above 7.00 and offset some of the pain … Happ’s 2015 July ERA was 7.43 … he was then traded by the Mariners to the Pirates where his ERA dipped to 1.98 in August and 2.10 in September … career 7.63 ERA makes him an interesting bargain if the second half of 2015 carries over to all of 2016
Top Prospects
Dalton Pompey – the outfielder has earned a few cups of coffee the past two seasons … his speed is intriguing, but the Bautista, Pillar and Saunders projected outfield create a bottleneck on playing time where Pompey is left without a chair … injury or underperformance will need to occur for him to be promoted and showcase the SB potential
Richard Urena – just turned 20 years old in late-February … hit 16 homers in the minors last season at the age of 19 … like most of the Blue Jays farm system, he’s a few years away from the show
Vlad Guerrero Jr. – not expected until 2020 or later, but a friendly note that Vlad Guerrero’s son is on the cusp of following in dad’s Canadian footsteps … odd to learn he does wear batting gloves at the plate according to prospect videos