2016 fantasy football draft strategy, NFL free agency impact

Russell Wilson locked down his free agent last week by proposing to Ciara with a diamond that has the Titanic II nervous.

After seeing the diamond iceberg, Wilson’s “Good Man Brand” MSRP for this Henley tee makes a little more sense. (Yes, I know $3 of each sale goes to charity.)

Pressing on.

The 2016 NFL Draft is still seven weeks away and the 2016 fantasy football draft season a few months out, but the frantic free agency period has shifted the fantasy football value of a number of position players.

Here’s a quick summary of the faces in new places and their fantasy football impact of their new homes in 2016 … 

Quarterbacks

If RGIII gets the nod, he'll be the 25th starting quarterback for the Browns since 1999. So, that's ... that's an achievement. Just remember if the Browns get Josh Gordon back, the receivers best games came when Jason Campbell was behind center. Looking back as far as Bernie Kosar, it's not crazy to suggest based on what we have seen of RGIII, he may enter 2016 as a Top 5 franchise quarterback over the past 20-30 years. Just ask the other 24-plus quarterbacks.

Prior to last season, the Broncos’ 6-foot-8-inch back-up trigger had only completed 17 NFL passes 2012-2014. Oh, and his height varies from source to source. If you go with 6 feet 8 inches, he and former Seahawks quarterback Dan McGwire are the tallest NFL quarterbacks since 1920.

In short, and as it stands in mid-March, here’s how I view Osweiler’s fantasy impact with the Texans. With Lamar Miller also joining the new-look offense, BO won’t have to post monster passing numbers in order for the Texans to win. Remember, DeAndre Hopkins managed to average 20.7 FPPG (PPR) with 11 touchdowns with Brian Hoyer, Ryan Mallett and Brandon Weeden behind center. One would presume Osweiler is of a higher-caliber of quarterback or the Texans would have been quick to embrace one of the other three QBs.  Osweiler isn’t in a position to leap to top 10 fantasy relevance on the heels of a 17.9 FPPG and 62 percent completion percentage (22nd) with the Broncos and it being year one running the Texans offense.

If he is indeed the starter in 2016, look for C.J. Anderson stock to soar and shares of Demaryius Thomas and Emmanuel Sanders to become cheaper. The Broncos won a Super Bowl because of their defense and running game – the model worked. So, this doesn’t become Sanchez’s next shining moment to chuck the ball around the yard. He’ll become the next game manager and outside the top 12 quarterbacks on the board.

His best fantasy season came in 2011 with the Jets when he finished with 26 passing and six rushing touchdowns along with 18 interceptions and roughly 10 FPPG via passing yards.

Running Backs

Care to play with fire? Darren McFadden has contributed to 32 of 32 games over the past two seasons. The Cowboys know the sands in that hour glass are running thin. Luckily for them, Lance Dunbar resigned with the team over the weekend. Now, they add depth with Morris. Although he failed to reach 1,000 rush yards for the first time in his career - a span of four seasons - Morris is only 27 and now gets to run behind the top offensive line the NFL. It would be great for ALF to earn another oppportunity to be the primary back with Dunbar and McFadden sprinkled into the mix, but it's unlikely at the time.

You can’t in good conscience use Murray’s 2015 nightmare season in Philly as a barometer for future production with the Titans. However, Pro Football Focus ranked the 2015 Titans’ offensive line fourth-worst in the league. That’s a problem. That’s a red flag. Antonio Andrews emerged as the “lead” back and finished with 3.6 YPR – 43rd in the NFL. Also, remember that Murray’s 2014 fantasy breakout was possible, in part, because the Cowboys’ offensive line was so talented and created lanes for him to roam.

Murray gets the fresh start in Tennessee, but he as the assumed primary back isn’t heading to the same run-friendly environment he had when in Dallas. The o-line needs work and last time I checked Mariota was about 100x more mobile than Romo.

The what-ifs surrounding Miller’s 2015 campaign are numerous. When you review the game logs, his touches per game are a confounding roller coaster of production:

Arian Foster is out. Miller is in in Houston, joining Osweiler in a new-look Texans backfield. Much like Murray will encounter in Tennessee, Miller isn’t joining the best rushing environment. Pro Football focus ranked the Texans’ offensive line 18th in 2015. Alfred Blue and Chris Polk finished as the top two ball carriers last season, but averaged less than four yards per carry. In fact, 19 NFL rush offenses averaged 4.0 yards per rush or better – the Texans averaged 3.7 – 28th in the NFL.

On the positive side, Miller’s Dolphins offensive line ranked 31st in PFF offensive line rankings and still managed 4.5 YPR – ranked 17th last season.

The Jets also resigned Bilal Powell. Although Forte is a little bigger, I look at the Jets’ 2016 backfield as a veteran dual-threat fantasy back – with a good amount of miles on his 30-year-old-frame - tutoring a 27-year dual-threat back who share similar skill sets. The once dominate Jets’ offensive line (see: Greene, Shonn), showed some cracks in the foundation in 2015. So, with between-the-tackles Chris Ivory gone, offensive coordinator Chan Gailey now has some talented pass-catching running backs to pick up some YAC.

Now, who is the Jets’ quarterback?

Ivory has only missed three games over the past three seasons. Why does it feel like he’s always hurt, on the mend, missing snaps? He’s averaged 13-14 carries per game 2013-2015. Mind. Blown.

T.J. Yeldon truthers have to be a little queasy with the addition. Ivory led all running backs with 17 carries inside the opponent’s five-yard line last season. Owners of Yeldon may remember the Jaguars tendency to pass inside near the goal line. Thus, Yeldon finished with only four carries inside the five and eight inside the 10 yard line. Although there is a RBBC coming to Jacksonville, fantasy owners should believe Blake Bortles and the passing game will remain a priority and Ivory will have plenty of cracks around the goal line. It’ll just be tough for the bruising back to average 13+ carries per game as a member of the Jaguars with Yeldon’s fresh legs available.

Wide Receivers

After missing all of 2014 with an ankle injury, Jones played in all 16 games for the Bengals in 2015. He finished with 65 receptions (103 targets) for 816 yards – both career highs - with four touchdowns.

His 10.9 FPPG in PPR leagues ranked just inside the Top 50 among receivers aka fringe WR4. Relocating to Detroit and trying to fill one-quarter the shoes of Calvin Johnson is nearly impossible. It will be fascinating to see how Matthew Stafford uses Golden Tate. Will he resort back to 2014 when Tate was targeted 142 times and finished with over 1,300 receiving yards? You have to also consider Theo Riddick earned a larger role in the passing game with Megatron out. Jones should win the job over a guy like Corey Fuller, but Tate, Riddick and even Eric Ebron will cut into Jones’ opportunity to become a Top 30 WR most likely.

It’s probably fair to assess that Benjamin’s true fantasy ceiling isn’t yet known considering the quarterback carousel and quality in Cleveland. It’s also fair to assess that Benjamin is uber-fast and although much shorter than Malcom Floyd, can become Philip Rivers’ go-route option in 2016. Benjamin finished with 12 receptions of 20+ yards with the Browns last season. Rivers connected on 53 passes for 20+ yards with the Chargers.

Benjamin’s 2016 fantasy value reaching FLEX appeal comes down to if the Chargers figure out a way to improve on their porous offensive line to give Rivers time to chuck it deep AND how the targets get distributed with Keenan Allen returning from injury, Stevie Johnson heavily involved in 2015 and Antonio Gates on pace to play until he’s 40.

Matthews missed the final five weeks of the Dolphins season due to a rib injury. Before he hit the shelf, he had some DFS-friendly games for those who invested in him. Matthews averaged 12.1 FPPG in PPR leagues. He caught 43 passes on 61 targets for 662 yards with four touchdowns in 11 games for Miami. Now he joins a crowded Titans passing game with Kendall Wright, Justin Hunter, Harry Douglas, Dorial-Green Beckham, Delanie Walker all vying for targets. That’s not to forget Marcus Mariota can call his own number or hand it off to new running back DeMarco Murray.

My best guess is Matthews was brought in because the organization is running thin on patience regarding guys like Wright and Hunter and one could be out of a job. If they get ousted, that’s where Matthews’ niche in the offense will lie.

I’ll never be a Joe Flacco fantasy football quarterback proponent – ever. However, I like Mike Wallace paired with Flacco to prove he’s got a little kick left in him.

Check out, Flacco’s and Wallace’s pass and receiving stats of 20+ and 40+ yards over the years:

Both have been on the deep threat decline, Wallace more than Flacco. Yet, Flacco still has a big arm and with Steve Smith prepping to return, Kamar Aiken above average, there is a nice balance between the three targets. Plus, adding the veteran deep threat allows redshirt NFL sophomore Breshad Perriman a little more time to get pro reps coming in cold in 2016. I’ll buy some stock in the FLEX range at this stage.

Roddy White gone. Julio Jones remains. I don’t see Sanu flirting with fantasy relevance with Matt Ryan behind center. The Falcons looked fine using heavy doses of Devonta Freeman – who averaged 22 touches per game - and Julio Jones who owned 45 percent of the 2015 targets. Sanu will be a non-factor in 2016 fantasy football.

I’ll just leave this here: