NHL Predictions: Central Division 5 Bold Projections
NHL Predictions: Chicago Blackhawks left wing Artemi Panarin (72) celebrates with Patrick Kane (88) after scoring the game-winning goal during the third period in game two of the first round of the 2016 Stanley Cup Playoffs against the St. Louis Blues at Scottrade Center. The Blackhawks won the game 3-2. Mandatory Credit: Billy Hurst-USA TODAY Sports
NHL Predictions: 5 Bold Projections – the Western Conference’s Central Division Is by Far the Strongest in the Entire NHL. Dallas, St. Louis, and Chicago Each Had Better Records Than 1st Place Los Angeles in the Pacific. Look for Familiar Faces to Battle It out Atop the Standings Once Again.
Following a Puck Prose tradition, it’s about time for another edition of our five bold NHL predictions. We typically release these in anticipation of important dates, such as the trade deadline, All-Star break, start of playoffs, free agency, etc. Now, with a new season set to begin on Wednesday, it’s time to settle in for another long, exciting nine months or so of hockey.
At the beginning of 2015-16, we released a league-wide edition for our five bold NHL predictions. It’s tricky to make accurate projections this early in the year, but we managed to hit on the Dallas Stars being a powerhouse team in the West emerging as a Stanley Cup contender. We also got lucky with our prediction that Connor McDavid would match/or exceed a point-per-game pace in his rookie season – luckily we made sure to protect ourselves to an injury opposed to making an actual point estimate.
We’re shifting gears a bit for 2016-17. Instead of five league-wide predictions, we’ve decided to split it up into a divisional series. Now, we look to the Western Conference, starting with the most potent division in the entire league; the Central Division.
Dallas, St. Louis, and Chicago battled it out for the top spot in 2015-16 with the Stars eventually emerging with 50 wins and 109 points (two points ahead of St. Louis). Nashville and Minnesota also managed to claim a postseason berth, with the Preds handing the Ducks a surprise loss in the opening round. On the outside looking in was the Colorado Avalanche and Winnipeg Jets. Both of these teams will look to rebound in 2016-17 hoping for better fortunes.
Mar 11, 2016; Dallas, TX, USA; Dallas Stars left wing Jamie Benn (14) and right wing Patrick Eaves (18) and center Tyler Seguin (91) and defenseman Kris Russell (2) celebrate a goal against the Chicago Blackhawks at the American Airlines Center. The Stars defeat the Blackhawks 5-2. Mandatory Credit: Jerome Miron-USA TODAY Sports
Dallas Stars Repeat Atop the Standings with a Better Record
Only two things can prevent this from happening again. First, Dallas needs to stay relatively healthy. Cody Eakin and Mattias Janmark are tough losses to start the year, but it doesn’t start to have that ripple effect until guys like Benn, Seguin, Sharp, Spezza, or Klingberg land on the IR.
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Second, the Stars need a much better effort between the pipes.
Now, GM Jim Nill may eventually succumb the fact that his goaltending needs an upgrade. The only realistic targets that could help are Marc-Andre Fleury and Ben Bishop. Hammering out a potential deal is the interesting part since it seems Dallas will need to move one of Antti Niemi or Kari Lehtonen in the process.
Hypothetical Deals for both Fleury and Bishop
Pittsburgh trades Marc-Andre Fleury to Dallas in exchange for G Antti Niemi, F Radek Faksa, and D Patrik Nemeth
Tampa Bay trades Ben Bishop to Dallas in exchange for G Antti Niemi, D Stephen Johns, and 2017 1st Round Pick
The reason I believe Dallas can repeat in the tough Central Division is because they do best what no other team can, scoring goals by the bushel. Say what you want about the goaltending or the unfairly criticized defense core, but the last time I checked, the one thing that hasn’t changed in our sport is the objective. If teams/coaches insist on playing boring defensively structured systems, that’s fine. The objective of hockey is to score more goals than your opponent. It doesn’t matter if you allow one goal or six – all that matters is that you find the back of the net with more frequency.
On a bit of a side note, don’t be surprised if Jamie Benn and Tyler Seguin both manage to top 100 points in 2016-17. Of course, the only way this can happen is a 75-plus game healthy season from both. Fingers crossed.
Apr 5, 2016; Nashville, TN, USA; Colorado Avalanche center Matt Duchene (9) reacts after a loss against the Nashville Predators at Bridgestone Arena. The Predators won 4-3. Mandatory Credit: Christopher Hanewinckel-USA TODAY Sports
Colorado Finishes Last in the Division
That 6-0 preseason is not worth reading into. If the ’08 Detroit Lions (NFL) can go 4-0 in the preseason before dropping every game for a historic 0-16 record, anything can happen. Sad thing is, the Avs have a ton of solid core pieces in place. Guys like Nathan MacKinnon, Matt Duchene, Tyson Barrie, Mikko Rantanen, and Semyon Varlamov/Calvin Pickard should make fans optimistic. The real problem is up in the press box with GM Joe Sakic.
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How many times do we have to watch teams scavenge the free agent market for other teams unwanted scraps, and then convince themselves they’re better because of it. If Fedor Tyutin and Patrick Wiercioch couldn’t cut it with their old lottery clubs, how much confidence can you have?
Perhaps if everything were to go perfectly, a team could sneak into the playoffs with this type of sloppy construction. Maybe in a weaker division like the Pacific or Atlantic, but not in the NHL’s tough Central Division. Do fans in the Mile High City honestly think this team can challenge the likes of Dallas, St. Louis, Chicago, and Nashville?
If the Avs want to get the ship headed in the right direction, they might think of making a significant trade involving Matt Duchene. It’s not a knock on Duchene, but this whole who should play first line center debate is getting old. Forcing one or the other to the wing is unfair, and both are 1st line quality C’s.
Colorado could sacrifice a bit of offense to find a true top pairing defender. Again, no disrespect to Erik Johnson or Tyson Barrie, both of whom are tremendous talents. There’s this glaring hole on the back end that has bodies continually cycled through it in hopes of finding something that sticks.
Nov 28, 2015; Los Angeles, CA, USA; Chicago Blackhawks right wing Patrick Kane (88) celebrates with left wing Artemi Panarin (72) and defenseman Duncan Keith (2) after scoring a goal in the first period of the game against the Los Angeles Kings at Staples Center. Mandatory Credit: Jayne Kamin-Oncea-USA TODAY Sports
Patrick Kane and Artemi Panarin Take a Step Back in 2016-17
Chicago Blackhawks forwards Patrick Kane, Artemi Panarin, and Artem Anisimov teamed up for the NHL‘s most potent line in 2015-16. Kane had 46 goals (106 points), Panarin managed 30 goals (77 points) as a rookie, and Anisimov posted 20 goals (42 points) for a total 96 goals, 129 assists (225 points). Those 93 goals accounted for 39.57 percent of Chicago’s total 235 goals last season.
While we wouldn’t be surprised to see Kane and Panarin duplicate their performance in 2016-17, the odds simply don’t support it. Patrick increased his point total by 42 points over the course of one season (64pts > 106 pts). That total is also 18 points higher than his career best so far. It wouldn’t be shocking if this was Patrick Kane’s “career year” when we look back a little ways down the road.
A little older than typical rookies, Artemi Panarin could still face similar challenges that other sophomore players tend to face. The elusive Russian winger is no longer an unknown in the NHL. Many teams have seen him enough times and game planning only gets easier as teams build a bigger video library to identify his tendencies/strengths.
If I had to go out on a limb to guess, I’d predict that Patrick Kane, Artemi Panarin, and Artem Anisimov get broken up at some point in 2016-17. With top prospects such as Nick Schmaltz and Tyler Motte likely vying for more minutes as the seasons unravels, coach Joel Quenneville could find himself doing a lot of line juggling.
Apr 24, 2016; Saint Paul, MN, USA; Dallas Stars defenseman John Klingberg (3) chases a loose puck during the second period against the Minnesota Wild in game six of the first round of the 2016 Stanley Cup Playoffs at Xcel Energy Center. Mandatory Credit: Marilyn Indahl-USA TODAY Sports
John Klingberg Challenges Fellow Swede Erik Karlsson for Most Points Among Defensemen
Before Ottawa’s Erik Karlsson went on a tear to record 82 points, or even before Brent Burns caught on fire in the second half to finish with 75 points, there was another stud defender outproducing both. Dallas’ John Klingberg was exceeding a point-per-game rate in the early stages of 2015-16.
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Between October 8th and December 8th (two-month period), Klingberg managed to rack up five goals, 25 assists (30 points) in the first 28 games. His production began to slow around Christmas and hit an absolute wall following the loss of Tyler Seguin in early January.
It’s also worth noting that Klingberg was on the ice for more team goals for than any other player in the NHL in 2015-16. What’s even more impressive was a mere 87 team goals against for a final plus/minus rating of +22.
Similar to fellow Swede Erik Karlsson, John Klingberg is an offensive juggernaut on the blue line. These types of players obviously bring with them defensive deficiencies. He’s not as much a liability defensive as Karlsson though. Erik needs a pure stay-at-home defender in Marc Methot to keep things balanced; Klingberg managed to excel with another offensive-minded defender in Alex Goligoski.
We don’t know if John projects to play with Dan Hamhuis or Johnny Oduya long-term in 2016-17, but both of these guys provide a stronger defensive presence. This should allow Klingberg to take the training wheels off and have free range to get involved in the offense. We’re expecting a monster year from the Stars blueliner this upcoming season. If he can stay healthy, there’s a chance he could challenge Erik Karlsson in that point-per-game range exceeding 70 points, pushing 80-plus.
Apr 17, 2016; Chicago, IL, USA; St. Louis Blues right wing Vladimir Tarasenko (91) warms up prior to the first period in game three of the first round of the 2016 Stanley Cup Playoffs against the Chicago Blackhawks at the United Center. Mandatory Credit: Dennis Wierzbicki-USA TODAY Sports
Vladimir Tarasenko Flirts with 50 Goals and 100 Points
This might have been a safer prediction before the Blues lost Jaden Schwartz to start the new season.
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Nevertheless, the Tarasenk-show has shown progression in each of his first three seasons. An increase of three goals and a single point in 2015-16 doesn’t seem like an improvement, but it’s worth noting that Vladimir was dealing with adversity all year long. Key players were in/out of the lineup due to injury and Schwartz missed an extended period of time.
The Russian winger reached the 40-goal plateau for the first time in his career last season. Still just 24-years-old, the best is yet to come. Whether he’s dishing the puck out showing off his nifty playmaking skills or burying pucks in the back of the net with his outstanding release, there’s no question that Vladimir Tarasenko is by far one of the most electrifying players to watch in today’s game.
Several different key factors will need to come together in order for St. Louis to finally get over that elusive hump to reach a Stanley Cup Final. Among them, the Blues will need Tarasenko to be more of a factor in big moments. Those close one-goal games, the final two minutes of the third period, OT/shootouts, and playoffs are great examples.
Don’t be surprised if things start to come together for Blues young superstar in 2016-17. Here’s a guy that will be a top producer in the NHL for years to come. There might even be a Maurice Rocket Richard or Art Ross Trophy in his near future.
Projected Stat-Line (for healthy season): 47 goals, 44 assists (91 points)