NHL Power Rankings 2016-17: Blue Jackets, Wild start New Year on top

The Columbus Blue Jackets and Minnesota Wild continue to pull away from the rest of the competition in the first NHL Power Rankings of 2017.

It’s hard to believe, but the 2016-17 NHL season is nearly halfway over. As 2017 begins, teams are starting to get into a rhythm; better or for worse, no team is sneaking up on anyone at this point. Generally, teams are who they are right now. Sure, there are some exceptions (most notably last year’s Pittsburgh Penguins), but unless teams pull off a huge move, what you see is what you get as far as Stanley Cup Playoff contenders and pretenders are concerned.

The Metropolitan Division continues to be incredibly good. As of Jan. 2, it has five playoff teams. Also worth noting is the fourth place team in the division (the Washington Capitals) are just one point away from the Atlantic Division leading Montreal Canadiens. Moreover, the fifth place Philadelphia Flyers (45 points) already have more points than the Boston Bruins, who are in third place in the Atlantic.

Because games in hand can make the regular standings deceiving, this power ranking focuses heavily on point percentage, or the percent of possible points a team has. For example, if a team has a 4-1-0 record or a 3-0-2 record, it would give them a .800 point percentage. In short, they’ve gotten 80 percent of the 10 points possible for them.

These rankings will be compiled by looking at each team’s record efficiency, who they have beaten, and how they have looked in games. The team’s record certainly counts, but so do a lot of other things. All stats, unless otherwise noted, are courtesy of Corsica and are at even strength (five on five). They are also score, venue, and zone adjusted unless otherwise noted. If you’re curious about expected goals for percentage (xGF percentage), which will be referenced throughout the rankings, here’s a good reading.

Without further ado, here are the first NHL Power Rankings of 2017.

Mandatory Credit: Ron Chenoy-USA TODAY Sports

Colorado Avalanche

(12-24-1)

Last week: 0-4-0 recordLast rank: 30th

The Colorado Avalanche continue to be a disgrace. They are the worst team in the NHL and it’s starting to not even be close. Their 42.75 percent xGF percentage is the second worst in the league, trailing only the Arizona Coyotes. A rebuild is desperately needed and the Avalanche don’t have too many attractive pieces. Colorado has won just three of its last 14 games since Dec. 5. Maybe Patrick Roy was right about the team after all.

Arizona Coyotes

(11-21-5)

Last week: 0-3-0 recordLast rank: 29th

Arizona is the only team keeping the race for the worst team in the league interesting. After expecting to contend this season, the Coyotes enter Jan. 4 with the worst xGF percentage. Not only can they not score (28th in the league in goals), they also can’t stop allowing goals (29th in goals against). What could have been a promising year in Arizona has gone completely haywire.

Buffalo Sabres

(14-15-8)

Last week: 2-2-0 recordLast rank: 25th

The Buffalo Sabres are one of the four teams who don’t have a point percentage of at least .500. However, at least they are somewhat close, as they are at .486 as of Jan. 3. Buffalo is rebuilding, but they still expected to see a bit of improvement this year. So far, the Sabres aren’t exactly getting it. Granted, this could be due to all of their injuries.

Mandatory Credit: Bruce Fedyck-USA TODAY Sports

New York Islanders

(15-15-6)

Last week: 2-1-0 recordLast rank: 28th

The New York Islanders are starting to look a tiny bit better than they did at the beginning of the season. However, they’ve dug themselves into a very deep hole in a division that can’t stop winning games. It will take a minor miracle for them to make the playoffs. Expect head coach Jack Capuano and general manager Garth Snow to both potentially lose their jobs after this season. Especially with a new ownership group who can’t be too happy the Islanders are among the worst teams in the NHL.

Winnipeg Jets

(18-19-3)

Last week: 2-2-0 recordLast rank: 23rd

For a while, the Winnipeg Jets had everyone fooled. It looked like they were in playoff contention. However, this was largely due to having a games in hand advantage over most of the Western Conference. The Jets offense hasn’t been the issue, as they rank 15th in the NHL in goals scored. Mark Scheifele and Patrik Laine guarantee a fairly bright future for them. However, their defense has been atrocious, ranking 26th in the league.

New Jersey Devils

(16-16-7)

Last week: 3-2-0 recordLast rank: 27th

Things are starting to look a bit better for the New Jersey Devils. Not only did they manage to win three of their five games last week, Taylor Hall is back. Also, Cory Schneider got a huge shutout against the Boston Bruins, just his second of the season. The Devils will need their goaltender to be that good to have a chance of making the playoffs. Schneider has been very good in the past, which is a bit encouraging.

Mandatory Credit: Anne-Marie Sorvin-USA TODAY Sports

Detroit Red Wings

(16-16-5)

Last week: 1-1-1 recordLast rank: 22nd

The Detroit Red Wings are going to need a miracle to make the 2016-17 postseason. It’s hard to imagine the NHL playoffs without them. But start preparing yourselves because the Red Wings have a lot of ground to make up in order to make the postseason. The 2016-17 season hasn’t helped at all regarding the Petr Mrazek versus Jimmy Howard goaltender debate. At least the Red Wings didn’t sign Mrazek to a long-term deal during the offseason.

Vancouver Canucks

(18-18-3)

Last week: 4-0-0 recordLast rank: 26th

On paper, it appears the Vancouver Canucks are just three points out of a playoff spot in the Western Conference. However, their point percentage (an even .500) suggests otherwise. They are one of the eight teams in the NHL with a point percentage of either .500 or below it. Their xGF percentage of 46.29 percent is one of the worst in the league. If there is something to be happy about in Vancouver, it’s Bo Horvat.

Florida Panthers

(16-14-8)

Last week: 1-0-2 recordLast rank: 21st

During the 2011-12 season, the Florida Panthers famously won the Southeast Division thanks to the loser point. It appears they might be doing a reprise of that performance this season. The good news is Florida is merely five points out of a playoff spot. But there’s some bad news. The Toronto Maple Leafs are (finally) a very good hockey team. Also, the Panthers have to get past the Tampa Bay Lightning, who have a history of finishing strong. Their 48.73 xGF percentage sure isn’t helping their case. But maybe getting Jonathan Huberdeau back will help turn things around.

Mandatory Credit: Jerome Miron-USA TODAY Sports

Carolina Hurricanes

(16-14-7)

Last week: 1-3-0 recordLast rank: 18th

Once again, the Carolina Hurricanes are doing poor right when you think they could be contenders. Their goaltending has been criticized early and often during these power rankings. It’s well deserved, as the Hurricanes have the seventh worst goaltending in the NHL. Only a recent surge by Cam Ward has kept them from having the worst. The future is very bright in Carolina, though. If they had a solid goaltender, they’d probably be a playoff team.

Dallas Stars

(16-15-7)

Last week: 2-1-0 recordLast rank: 24th

The Dallas Stars have perhaps been the most disappointing team this season. Expected by many to contend, it should come as a surprise to no one their goaltending has been absolutely abysmal. Many believed their goaltending would cost them a Stanley Cup, but it might wind up costing them a spot in the playoffs. Dallas has a .901 save percentage as a team, the fifth lowest in the NHL. A trade for Ben Bishop or a better goalie is needed for this team to rebound, especially in a competitive Central Division.

Tampa Bay Lightning

(19-16-4)

Last week: 2-1-1 recordLast rank: 19th

Man, without Steven Stamkos, the Tampa Bay Lightning are a completely different team. Without him, Nikita Kucherov (35 points), Jonathan Drouin (22 pounds), Valtteri Filppula (24 points), and Victor Hedman (33 points) have been leading the way. The issue is not many other players have been stepping it up without their captain around. They aren’t getting the great goaltending they got last season, which hurts as well. Still, their team save percentage is the definition of league average at 15th in the league. But if you consider recent history, the Lightning can’t be counted out. They finish strong and they tend to get their act together right around playoff time.

Mandatory Credit: Candice Ward-USA TODAY Sports

Nashville Predators

(16-14-7)

Last week: 1-1-2 recordLast rank: 18th

Pekka Rinne might wind up costing the Nashville Predators this season. After having a very strong November, he has been terrible. Following his .949 save percentage in November, he had a .875 save percentage in December. That’s simply not acceptable. Losing P.K. Subban for the next few weeks hurts their playoff chances even more. However, if Filip Forsberg can regain his scoring touch, the Predators could be a dangerous team in the postseason.

Calgary Flames

(20-17-2)

Last week: 2-1-0 recordLast rank: 20th

The Calgary Flames are really starting to play some good hockey. They’re rallying behind Chad Johnson, who’s been great in goal for them. Even Brian Elliott has been playing better as of late, with a .919 save percentage in December. However, their 47.82 xGF percentage and their 49.72 CorsiFor percentage suggests Calgary needs to be better to optimize their postseason chances. The Flames need more out of Mark Giordano and T.J. Brodie to make the playoffs.

Boston Bruins

(20-16-4)

Last week: 2-2-0 recordLast rank: 15th

All season long, the Boston Bruins have been consistently inconsistent. A large part of this has to do with Patrice Bergeron not producing like he usually does. If he gets back to producing like he’s capable of, the Bruins might be able to sneak into the postseason. However, things aren’t looking good. The Toronto Maple Leafs are starting to play like a playoff team and the Bruins blue line is looking very suspect.

Mandatory Credit: Tom Szczerbowski-USA TODAY Sports

Los Angeles Kings

(19-15-4)

Last week: 2-2-0 recordLast rank: 13th

As always, the Los Angeles Kings are a very good defensive team, with the sixth lowest team GAA (2.34). However, they are also a very poor team on offense, as they have the 10th lowest goals per game rate (2.45). Even without Jonathan Quick, their defense has been good enough for the Kings to contend. But if they want to make a deep postseason run, someone has to start producing. Getting Marian Gaborik back to his 2013-14 self would certainly help.

Philadelphia Flyers

(20-14-5)

Last week: 0-2-1 recordLast rank: 11th

The Philadelphia Flyers are starting to come back down to earth after an impressive winning streak. Steve Mason is once again struggling, which isn’t a good sign moving forward. They have a 1-4-2 record over their last seven games, which is yet another bad sign considering how quickly the Maple Leafs are making up ground on them. The Flyers face the Rangers, Lightning, Blue Jackets, and Sabres in their next four games. They must win at least two of them and preferably three of them.

Toronto Maple Leafs

(17-12-8)

Last week: 3-0-1 recordLast rank: 16th

What a week it was for the Toronto Maple Leafs. Say what you want about them, they are a very fun team to watch. This is both a good thing (Toronto beat Detroit after blowing a 4-1 lead in the Centennial Classic on New Year’s Day) and a bad thing (Toronto blew leads of 4-2 and 5-4 to the Washington Capitals on Tuesday). Auston Matthews already has his first 20 goal season and he’s only 19 years old. He’s going to be a very special player. Heck, he already is one. But something has to be done about their defense.

Mandatory Credit: Perry Nelson-USA TODAY Sports

Edmonton Oilers

(19-13-7)

Last week: 1-1-1 recordLast rank: 10th

The Edmonton Oilers are starting to struggle a bit, which is a little concerning. They are 5-3-2 over their last 10 games. However, the Oilers can’t win games at home, where they have a relatively unimpressive 9-7-2 record. But on the other hand, at least Edmonton can win games on the road, where they are 10-6-5. Their 49.51 xGF percentage suggests they’re outperforming how they should be doing. But they have the elite talent necessary to overcome a low xGF percentage. Having Connor McDavid can do that for you.

Ottawa Senators

(20-13-4)

Last week: 0-2-1 recordLast rank: 9th

The Ottawa Senators would probably like a mulligan to the start of 2017. They couldn’t beat a Capitals team that had played the day before on New Year’s Day, falling to them 2-1. Over their last 10 games, the Senators are 4-4-2. Luckily, the rest of the Atlantic Division south of Toronto and Montreal hasn’t been very good. But maybe Ottawa’s good luck is finally starting to run out. They need to start scoring goals or they risk missing the playoffs.

St. Louis Blues

(20-13-5)

Last week: 2-1-0 recordLast rank: 12th

On Jan. 2, the St. Louis Blues won the Winter Classic thanks to three third period goals. Two of them were by star forward Vladimir Tarasenko. Maybe the huge win can carry some momentum over to the rest of the season because they sure need it. Goaltender Jake Allen looked good against the Chicago Blackhawks. The Blues need more performances like that from him, as they have the worst team save percentage in the NHL.

Mandatory Credit: Anne-Marie Sorvin-USA TODAY Sports

Anaheim Ducks

(19-12-8)

Last week: 2-0-2 recordLast rank: 14th

In four games last week, the Anaheim Ducks managed to get six points while losing zero games in regulation. Pretty impressive. They needed it after a slump. Over their last 10 games, they are 4-3-3. The Ducks obviously need to be more consistent, but they’re in a pretty good spot right now. However, something needs to be done about their goaltending because they have the 11th lowest team save percentage in the NHL. Most of this falls on Jonathan Bernier, with a .897 save percentage. John Gibson has been much better as of late after a very slow start with a .911 save percentage.

Chicago Blackhawks

(23-12-5)

Last week: 1-3-0 recordLast rank: 4th

This ranking is much more about how the Chicago Blackhawks are playing than their record. Between Corey Crawford and Scott Darling, they have two great goaltenders. The thing about great goaltending is it often masks huge flaws. This is certainly the case with the Blackhawks. For most of the season, Chicago’s xGF percentage has been middling. At 45.86 percent, it’s now the fourth lowest in the NHL. A team PDO of 101.8 suggests Chicago is getting a little bit lucky, especially with their goaltending. This isn’t how the Blackhawks have won three Stanley Cups. They’ve done it through much better play. It needs to happen if Chicago wants a Stanley Cup this season.

San Jose Sharks

(23-13-2)

Last week: 2-1-1 recordLast rank: 8th

After a slow start to their season, the San Jose Sharks are starting to pick it up. Their defense, as expected, has been phenomenal, allowing just 2.16 goals per game (fourth lowest in the NHL). Meanwhile, their offense is heating up, averaging 2.45 games (still ninth fewest in the league). Once the Sharks get Tomas Hertl back, it should help stabilize the rest of the lineup. San Jose’s offense has relied very heavily on Brent Burns, Joe Thornton, Logan Couture, and Joe Pavelski so far. Despite this, they are very good.

Mandatory Credit: Amber Searls-USA TODAY Sports

Montreal Canadiens

(23-9-6)

Last week: 2-0-2 recordLast rank: 6th

The Montreal Canadiens need Alex Galchenyuk and David Desharnais to get healthy ASAP. Without them, they just haven’t been as good as they were before they got injured. Shea Weber is starting to heat up after going nearly an entire month without a point. Carey Price is no longer the best goaltender on the planet, but he has still been extremely good. Alexander Radulov continues to be a huge value for Montreal. An extension for him could be coming very soon.

New York Rangers

(26-13-1)

Last week: 3-1-0 recordLast rank: 7th

It hasn’t been pretty lately, but even without Mika Zibanejad, the New York Rangers are still winning. Although they had a terrible night on Tuesday against the Buffalo Sabres, they’re still a very dangerous team. The Rangers desperately need to add someone to their defense, preferably someone who can move the puck well. Dan Girardi, Marc Staal, and Kevin Klein have been liabilities this season.

Washington Capitals

(23-9-5)

Last week: 3-1-1 recordLast rank: 5th

The Washington Capitals offense is really starting to pick up. After their dramatic 6-5 overtime win over the Toronto Maple Leafs on Tuesday, they now rank 11th in the NHL in goals per game. Combined with an elite defense which allows 2.14 goals against per game (third fewest), the Caps might have what it takes to finally bring a Stanley Cup to DC.

Mandatory Credit: Russell LaBounty-USA TODAY Sports

Pittsburgh Penguins

(25-8-5)

Last week: 3-0-0Last rank: 3rd

Sidney Crosby continues to be the best player in the world. He completely dominated 2016. What’s scary is the Pittsburgh Penguins get a break entering 2017, as their off week is the first week of January. That’s precisely what the team needs right now with multiple players ailing and battling injuries. Marc-Andre Fleury has been very good relieving Matt Murray during his injury, but he’s still on his way out of town.

Minnesota Wild

(23-9-4)

Last week: 2-1-0 recordLast rank: 2nd

While their epic winning streak is now over thanks to the Columbus Blue Jackets, the Minnesota Wild have a lot to be excited about going into 2017. Not only do they have an elite defense ranking second in the NHL in fewest goals allowed, their offense scores 3.11 goals per game (fourth most in the league). The Wild are doing it despite not having one true star. Three of their players have at least 10 goals and 12 of them have at least five.

Columbus Blue Jackets

(27-5-4)

Last week: 4-0-0 recordLast rank: 1st

Who would have thought the Columbus Blue Jackets would be approaching the best winning streak in NHL history back in October? That’s the case, as the Blue Jackets have now won 16 straight games. The record is 17 straight. Columbus can tie it on Thursday with a win against the Washington Capitals, who they’ve already beaten twice this season. Should they win on Thursday, they could break the record against the New York Rangers on Saturday.