NHL Expansion Draft: Ottawa Senators Protection Strategy

In the NHL Expansion Draft, who do the Ottawa Senators protect? Which strategy do they use, 7-3-1 or 4-4? Who do the Vegas Golden Knights take from this Senators roster?

In the NHL Expansion Draft this year, the Senators have one fundamental question: which strategy to use.

Ottawa Senators defenceman Erik Karlsson (65) congratulates goalie Craig Anderson as they celebrate a 2-1 win (Dan Hamilton-USA TODAY Sports)

Most of their decisions have already been made. Many were cleared up by the playoff performance by this roster.

But the Senators face a query. Is it worth it to lose a great forward to protect both Cody Ceci and Marc Methot?

Both of whom, by the way, sound like superhero alter egos.

If they only get to protect one in the NHL Expansion Draft, who would it be?

Boston Bruins goalie Tuukka Rask (40) stops a shot by Ottawa Senators right wing Mark Stone (61) during the first period of game six (Greg M. Cooper-USA TODAY Sports)

O is for Offense

Applicable Ottawa forwards: Bobby Ryan, Mike Hoffman, Derick Brassard, Clarke MacArthur, Mark Stone, Kyle Turris, Zack Smith, Alexandre Burrows, Ryan Dzingel, Ryan Rupert, Jean-Gabriel Pageau.

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Guaranteed: Mike Hoffman, Mark Stone, Kyle Turris

Hoffman was an astounding forward on a team lacking in offense.

He was crucial throughout the regular season and playoffs and has been for a few years.

Hoffman is also just 27. He posted 61 points in the regular season, setting a career-high. Mike's gotten more points in each of the last three seasons.

Mike Hoffman had high possession numbers and a high PDO. He had 8 game-winning goals.

Hoffman is one of the safest Ottawa Senators forwards in the NHL Expansion Draft.

Mark Stone might be the only one who's safer. Stone is 25 and will be a restricted free agent next season. The Senators will be offering him a rather large contract after that.

Stone had better possession numbers this season than Hoffman. He had more points in each of the two seasons before 2016-17, when he played fewer games.

Stone and Hoffman are the Senators' lead duo for years to come.

And Turris is their power play center. He played more minutes a night than either of Stone or Hoffman and played most of his minutes with Bobby Ryan and Ryan Dzingel.

Turris had 55 points of his own, including 27 goals. Six of those were game-winning. Turris put up 10 points in the playoffs in addition, including 1 game-winning goal.

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Probably: Derick Brassard, Zack Smith

Derick Brassard was brought over from a trade with the New York Rangers last offseason. The Senators sent a younger center, Mika Zibanejad, in the return.

That means that the Senators believe in Brassard enough to give up a similar player at a younger age.

He's certainly likely to be safe in the NHL expansion draft.

In addition, Brassard posted 39 points in his first year with the Senators.

He played between Hoffman and Stone on the power play and switched Hoffman for Zack Smith during 5-on-5.

Zack Smith is one of the Senators' best defensive forwards. That's in a system reliant upon defense. Smith started 51% of his starts in the defensive zone.

Smith also won 52% of his faceoffs in the regular season. Which comes in addition to 32 points. It helps to have a role player like Smith, especially when he's on an affordable contract until 2021.

Highly Likely: Ryan Dzingel, Jean-Gabriel Pageau

Dzingel is a restricted free agent who posted 32 points on the third line last year. It was just his second season in the NHL, and it was his first season with more than 30 games played.

He had two goals in the Stanley Cup Playoffs. He's likely safe in the NHL Expansion Draft because of his age and because he's one of the Senators best restricted free agents.

Pageau is the best restricted Senator. Pageau led the Senators with eight goals in the Playoffs and a 54% faceoff success rate.

He's also a defensive specialist, starting 58.7% of his shifts in the defensive zone. When your defensive specialist is able to score 33 points in the regular season and 8 goals in the playoffs, you're onto something special.

Unlikely: Clarke MacArthur, Bobby Ryan

Bobby Ryan has laughed while being asked the question of his potential exposure in the NHL expansion draft. He believes he won't be taken because of his 7 million dollar contract.

In fact, to keep other Senators players safe, that might be true. Ryan has a massive contract, and the Golden Knights could look to go cheap in the NHL expansion draft.

Clarke MacArthur has played 8 games in the last two years. MacArthur missed the entirety of 2016 and his history of injuries is still a prominent threat. He's also making 4.65 million with that history.

While he was great in the playoffs, posting 9 points, the Golden Knights would have to overlook two major factors.

Ottawa Senators defenseman Erik Karlsson (65) skates with the puck against the Pittsburgh Penguins during the second period in game five of the Eastern Conference Final (Charles LeClaire-USA TODAY Sports)

S is for Safety

Applicable Senators defensemen: Dion Phaneuf, Erik Karlsson, Marc Methot, Cody Ceci, Mark Borowiecki, Chris Wideman, Fredrik Claesson, Jyrki Jokipakka, Patrick Sieloff.

NMC: Dion Phaneuf

The possibility of waving Phaneuf in the NHL Expansion Draft has been openly discussed. For the same reasons as Bobby Ryan, Phaneuf's contract is unlikely to be selected by Vegas.

Still, Ottawa is reluctant to let him go. Since turning him back into a top 4 defenseman instead of a top 2, Phaneuf has excelled. He had 30 points, 156 blocks, and 23 minutes on ice a night this season.

Phaneuf also scored 5 points in the playoffs, including a game-winning goal. So again, Ottawa would be reluctant to let him go, and would only waive him if they were sure he was safe.

Guaranteed: Erik Karlsson, Marc Methot

Erik Karlsson is the best defenseman in the NHL right now. Whether you subscribe to the (false) narrative that he's bad defensively, he proved to be incredibly valuable in the playoffs.

He's also far and away superior to all but perhaps one defenseman in terms of offensive production. Karlsson had 71 points this season and will be a Norris finalist.

His possession numbers were incredible, and when he was on the ice, the Senators had a 100.9 PDO (shot percentage plus save percentage).

Marc Methot is Karlsson's stay-at-home defensive partner. Unlike Karlsson, he started most of his shifts in the defensive zone. The Senators save percentage rose nearly a full percentage with him on ice.

Methot also scored 2 goals in the 2017 Stanley Cup Playoffs.

Depends: Cody Ceci

Ceci is the youngest Senators defenseman. He played top 4 minutes throughout the season and is someone the Senators would love to protect. Which is why Phaneuf was asked to waive.

Ceci posted 17 points and 23 minutes a night in the regular season. Cody had 159 blocks as well. He started 54.3% of his shifts in the defensive zone.

Other than that, there's a reason he's the one saved by a Phaneuf waiving. It's that he gave up 74 turnovers in the regular season and 18 in the playoffs. Ceci has to control the puck better.

Ottawa Senators goalie Craig Anderson (41) makes a save during warmups prior to playing Pittsburgh Penguins (Dan Hamilton-USA TODAY Sports)

CA is for Corsi Against

Applicable goaltenders: Craig Anderson, Andrew Hammond, Chris Driedger.

Might As Well Be An NMC: Craig Anderson

Anderson came back from staying at his wife's bedside while she bravely battled cancer to help lead the Ottawa Senators to the Eastern Conference Final.

Say it with me: he's safe. Even at 36 years old, he's one of the most important Ottawa Senators. Though he's in second place in terms of the degree of how safe he is (Erik Karlsson takes first), he's still safely safe in the NHL Expansion Draft.

How many times did I just say safe? Not enough.

Youths in Revolt

Exempt List: Colin White, Logan Brown, Thomas Chabot, Maxime Lajoie, Ben Harpur, Matt O'Connor.

Ottawa Senators defenseman Fredrik Claesson (33) looks on as the puck crosses the net on a shot from left wing Mike Hoffman (not pictured) to score the winning goal against the Pittsburgh Penguins in the third period of game six (Marc DesRosiers-USA TODAY Sports)

Vegetable Garden Knight

Available Ottawa Senators: Bobby Ryan, Clarke MacArthur, Alexandre Burrows, Mike Blunden, Ryan Rupert, Dion Phaneuf, Mark Borowiecki, Chris Wideman, Fredrik Claesson, Jyrki Jokipakka, Andrew Hammond

Who Vegas takes depends on whether or not Dion Phaneuf waives. Both options are defensemen, good young defensemen who proved themselves in the playoffs.

One is Cody Ceci. The other is Fredrik Claesson. You can't make a high enough bribe for Vegas not to take Ceci. A 23-year-old defenseman who can play 23 minutes isn't something common.

But if Phaneuf does waive, the Golden Knights should take Fredrik Claesson. Claesson is a year older than Ceci, and 2016 was his first season of a meaningful length. It was actually his rookie season after a 16-game 2015-16.

But his real proving ground was the playoffs. While Claesson had 11 points in 33 games in the regular season, he totaled 3 in 14 in the playoffs, as well as 33 hits.

But his performance may have been more eye test than advanced statistics. Still, his regular season advanced stats aren't bad. That includes a 53.3 Corsi For% (A 5.3% spike).