Colorado Avalanche: Matt Duchene vs Nathan MacKinnon
Oct 17, 2016; Pittsburgh, PA, USA; Colorado Avalanche center Nathan MacKinnon (29) skates with the puck ahead of Pittsburgh Penguins right wing Phil Kessel (81) during the second period at the PPG Paints Arena. Mandatory Credit: Charles LeClaire-USA TODAY Sports
The Colorado Avalanche have two foundational players. If you had to trade one of them, who would you choose?
The Colorado Avalanche are back to rebuilding. The team did a 90-degree turn from their path of last summer. And certainly they’re not in the same spot they were in two summers ago, after the golden Why Not Us season.
For three years, the Avalanche were building a big, gritty team with speed in the manner of the Anaheim Ducks. Now, they’re aiming for a small, hard-working team with speed in the manner of the Columbus Blue Jackets. Analytics are playing a big part in their transformation.
Because of this big switch, the Avalanche are in more of a rebuild than if they’d stuck with the original plan. Be honest with yourself — do you really see today’s Avs hoisting the Stanley Cup next June? Do you even really see them getting out of the first round of the playoffs?
Colorado is back to building a team identity around the young core. They are where they were before the 2013-14 season — with a new coach coming off of a sub-par year. They are not a contending team yet — they are still building toward that.
Therefore, I’m here to propose a Sophie’s Choice for Colorado. Spoiler alert: you’re not going to like it. I also encourage you to vote in the comments section even though you’re not going to want to.
So, here’s the Sophie’s Choice. If you know your only hope of rebuilding an elite team is by trading a core player, and you can pick between only two, which do you choose — Matt Duchene or Nathan MacKinnon?
I told you it was going to be a hateful choice. Let’s look at the two options.
Oct 20, 2016; Tampa, FL, USA; Colorado Avalanche center Matt Duchene (9) skates against Tampa Bay Lightning during the third period at Amalie Arena. Colorado Avalanche defeated the Tampa Bay Lightning 4-0. Mandatory Credit: Kim Klement-USA TODAY Sports
Matt Duchene
Everybody loves Matt Duchene. He’s the most popular player since Peter Forsberg. What’s not to love? He’s got that great backstory of loving the team as a kid and being super-excited to get chosen by the Colorado Avalanche in the first round.
He’s a stand-up guy, popular as all get-out on social media. Dutchy is also a legit country boy who loves dogs, country music and fishing. He’s the kind of guy you could picture having a couple beers with at the local dive bar.
And Matt Duchene on a breakaway is a thing of beauty. In fact, I’d daresay it’s some of the prettiest hockey that’s ever happened in burgundy and blue.
Let’s appreciate that for a moment:
What’s more, Duchene is almost always in the top-three of scoring. In his seven years with the Avs, he’s led the team in scoring three times, been second once and third once — his rookie year. The other two years were injury-plagued, but he still made top-five both times.
Here’s where it gets tricky. In those seven years, Colorado has only made the playoffs twice, and they were eliminated in the first round both times. Granted, Duchene was injured for the second playoff stint. However, you still don’t see him carrying the team too far.
The general consensus for years has been that Matt Duchene is the Colorado Avalanche’s best player. When you compare him to other best players around the NHL, he doesn’t exactly stack up. He’s not competing with them for any scoring titles. And he’s only had a single 30-goal season in seven years.
I’m just like everyone else — I love me some Dutchy. And I wanted him to be an elite player. But, while I think he’s great, I don’t think he’s elite. He’s as popular as Foppa was, but Dutchy is in no way the kind of player who can transform the team like Forsberg did.
Like I said, Duchene has long been considered the Avs best player — until the kid came to town.
Nov 17, 2015; Toronto, Ontario, CAN; Colorado Avalanche forward Nathan MacKinnon (29) prepares for a face-off against the Toronto Maple Leafs at the Air Canada Centre. The Maple Leafs won 5-1. Mandatory Credit: John E. Sokolowski-USA TODAY Sports
Nathan MacKinnon
Nathan MacKinnon was the Colorado Avalanche’s first-overall draft pick in the 2013 draft. As with any first-overall draft pick, MacKinnon has crazy good talent. He’s so fast and agile — like a hockey deer, if you can imagine such a thing.
In fact, let’s celebrate one of his most famous goals, the ankle-breaker from the playoffs:
Of course, Nathan MacKinnon won the Calder Trophy as rookie of the year that season — the golden Why Not Us season.
MacKinnon is like a goofy younger brother. Very likable with his slight lisp and utter lack of eloquence. When he celebrates one of his goals, he looks like the proverbial kid on Christmas morning.
Interestingly, MacKinnon has twice as many hat tricks as Matt Duchene with two. However, that’s the only place MacK Daddy bests Dutchy (besides nicknames). In his three seasons, he’s only been top-three once, which was last year. Currently he’s second on the team to Matt Duchene for points.
That said, Nathan MacKinnon is still widely regarded as having more potential than Matt Duchene. Indeed, it’s said he’s the only player who might one day be elite. And he’s eventually going to be paid that way. Duchene was the Avalanche’s internal salary ceiling. MacKinnon’s new contract breaks that ceiling.
Now we get to the Sophie’s Choice. If you’re the Colorado Avalanche’s GM, and you have to trade one of those players or relegate the team to eternal mediocrity, who do you choose?
Nov 28, 2015; Denver, CO, USA; Colorado Avalanche left wing Gabriel Landeskog (92) celebrates his goal with center Matt Duchene (9) and center Nathan MacKinnon (29) and defenseman Erik Johnson (6) and defenseman Francois Beauchemin (32) in the first period against the Winnipeg Jets at the Pepsi Center. Mandatory Credit: Ron Chenoy-USA TODAY Sports
Sophie’s Choice, Colorado Avalanche Style
More from Mile High Sticking
Just a quick note in case you haven’t seen the movie or read the book. The Sophie’s Choice I’m referring to is a fictional choice a woman had to make in a concentration camp. She had to choose one child to go to the labor camp and one child to be immediately gassed. Now, the Avs style choice isn’t so dramatic as that, but it’s still pretty painful.
So, imagine you’re Joe Sakic. You were on those elite teams — you were an elite player yourself. And while you know that today’s NHL is different from the one in which you dominated, you can still acknowledge that the team you have is not a contender.
As everyone keeps pointing out to you, there’s a plethora of talent on the team. You haven’t been able to fully capitalize on it by dressing the players for Colorado Avalanche games. So, maybe the trade deadline is nearing, and you see your team is at best a bubble team. Missing the playoffs again is still possible.
You’ve got to make a move. Trade Matt Duchene. Or trade Nathan MacKinnon. Who do you choose?
This poll was inspired by a friend of mine. He actually proposed that the Colorado Avalanche should trade Matt Duchene. His rationale was that the team could get some very select pieces for Dutchy. He proposed a couple first-round draft picks and support players. Then, when MacK, et al, were actually in their prime, the team would be set to go.
I’m going to go against that. I’m not a gambler. While Nathan MacKinnon has shown flashes of brilliance, be honest — he’s no Sidney Crosby. And the Edmonton Oilers can tell you all about first-overall players who never live up to their potential.
Therefore, I’m going to choose MacKinnon. You can get just as much, or more, for him as you could for Matt Duchene. And Dutchy has already proven he can be the best player on the team. If you get him a proper supporting cast, maybe it will work this time.
Dear reader, before you hate on me in the comments section, please read the following: I AM NOT SAYING THE COLORADO AVALANCHE SHOULD TRADE NATHAN MACKINNON. I’m simply playing a little game.
Don’t wuss out. I deliberately left Gabriel Landeskog off this list. You don’t get to choose another player. MacK or Dutchy — that’s it. Who do you trade? And don’t say neither — that’s not playing the game. (I’m sure that’s what Sophie wanted to say, but that wasn’t an option for her either.)
So, go ahead if you dare — which player would you choose to trade if you absolutely had to? Matt Duchene? Or Nathan MacKinnon?