With Colts' confidence ‘through the moon,’ they might be better than you think

Entering 2023, the Colts were an easy choice to label as the worst team in the AFC South. Yes, below even the Texans. 

It's because the Colts' rookie quarterback, No. 4 overall pick Anthony Richardson, was said to be a project. They have had no Jonathan Taylor to start the year (and maybe permanently, if Indianapolis obliges the injured running back's trade request). They have the same offensive line that gave up 60 sacks last season, second-most in the league. Beyond Michael Pittman Jr., they have an underwhelming receiver cast on paper. They have an extremely young and inexperienced secondary, too.  

As it turns out, however, Indianapolis just might be better than we thought. 

"Confidence level is through the moon," linebacker Zaire Franklin said Sunday. "We've got a young team, and I don't think some of these guys understand how good we are. And that's a good thing."

It's still early, of course. But entering Week 4, the Colts have the AFC South's best record at 2-1 (everyone else in the division is 1-2). Indianapolis is in a six-way tie for the second-best record in the AFC. This is a team that has bought into the vision of new coach Shane Steichen. 

The defensive front has led the way. 

In Sunday's overtime victory at Baltimore, the Colts pass rush went blow to blow with Lamar Jackson. Defensive linemen Samson Ebukam and Taven Bryan both strip-sacked the former NFL MVP, with one leading to a takeaway, highlighting a four-sack effort by the team. The Colts are tied for second in the NFL with 12 sacks overall, including a league-high nine without blitzing, according to Next Gen Stats. 

The run defense has been just as good, led by DeForest Buckner and Grover Stewart — one of the best interior defensive line tandems in the league — and Franklin, who has continued to ascend from his breakout 2022 season. Franklin leads the NFL in solo tackles (29) and combined tackles (45). He's also tied for third in the league with six stuffs (tackles made on run plays resulting in no gain or a loss), per Next Gen Stats. Buckner, Stewart and Ebukam are all tied for fifth among NFL defensive linemen with four stuffs. 

The Colts rank first in the NFL in tackles for loss (23) and stuffs overall (27), and fourth in stuff rate (27.6%), per NGS. They're also tied for third in yards before contact allowed per carry (0.7), which speaks to how quickly Colts defenders are beating run blocks, according to NGS. Opposing rushers have been able to reach a maximum speed of at least 15 miles per hour on just 14.3% of their carries, tied for second in the league. 

Indianapolis is still a work in progress coverage-wise, but it has gotten some big plays from the back end. Rookie second-round cornerback JuJu Brents, making his NFL debut in Baltimore, had a forced fumble and a recovery in Sunday's victory. Veteran cornerback Tony Brown also picked off Trevor Lawrence in the season opener (after the pass was bobbled by one of Jacksonville's receivers). 

The Colts are tied for fifth in the NFL with five takeaways. They're tied for second in the league with seven forced fumbles. 

"Our defense, they continue to prove it week in and week out — our defensive line, our linebackers, and our [defensive backs] as a whole," Steichen said Sunday. "[Defensive coordinator Gus Bradley] does a heck of a job with those guys, getting them prepared along with the defensive staff. Just the way they are playing, they are playing together. They're playing physical. They're on the same page."

Indianapolis' offense has also gotten into a rhythm the past couple of weeks. Protecting the ball has helped — no turnovers in the last two games — but the Colts have had an answer to their Taylor-less run game in Zack Moss. 

After missing the season opener with a broken arm, Moss has 48 carries for 210 yards and a touchdown in the past two games (4.4 yards-per-carry average), including 30 carries for 112 yards against the Ravens. He's averaging 105.5 rushing yards per game, which is second in the league to the 49ers' Christian McCaffrey. 

Moss isn't super dynamic, but he's a patient and physical runner with good balance who has helped the Colts to move the chains. He has essentially picked up from where he left off last season. In the last four weeks of 2022, Moss had 69 carries for 334 yards, the latter of which ranked seventh among all running backs, according to TruMedia. 

"Obviously, toughness, physicality, which he runs with," Steichen said of Moss' disposition. "He's done it back-to-back weeks for us and he continues to do it. He had the hot hand again and we rode him. We rode him, and he played really good football for us back-to-back weeks. We'll see how it goes this week."

The ceiling of the Colts offense should only improve with the return of Richardson, who missed Sunday's game with a concussion and remained in concussion protocol as of Monday. Indianapolis scored just one touchdown in Baltimore (place kicker Matt Gay hit five field goals, including four from 50-plus yards). Backup Gardner Minshew (and the Colts offensive line) struggled against the Ravens' pressure packages. 

The mobile Richardson gives Indianapolis a better chance at success in those situations, plus a deep ball that Minshew doesn't possess. The rookie has been better than expected in a limited sample size to start his career: In 87 snaps, he has a 63.8% completion rate (30-of-47) for 279 yards and a touchdown with an interception, plus 13 carries for 75 yards and three more scores. 

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Entering Week 4, no one is crowning the Colts.  But they may be better than the NFL world thought coming into the season. 

"It showed a little bit with our guys — the resiliency, the relentless effort," Steichen said of the win in Baltimore. "It was back and forth, that game could have went either way, but our guys just kept fighting. It was a big win, but we've got to put it in our rearview mirror. We've got a big game coming up this week against the Rams that we've got to get ready for."

Ben Arthur is the AFC South reporter for FOX Sports. He previously worked for The Tennessean/USA TODAY Network, where he was the Titans beat writer for a year and a half. He covered the Seattle Seahawks for SeattlePI.com for three seasons (2018-20) prior to moving to Tennessee. You can follow Ben on Twitter at @benyarthur.