Will Tom Brady make 16th Pro Bowl? Also, Falcons to start Desmond Ridder: NFC South notes

It's an odd week for the NFC South, with the Falcons and Saints in their bye week and the Panthers coming off theirs, and the only two games sending teams out west, with the Bucs visiting the 49ers (4:25 p.m. ET Sunday on FOX) and the Panthers going to the Seahawks.

Carolina, at 4-8, is in something of a no man's land, technically still just two games out of first place in the division but also in position to land a high draft pick in April. As it stands, the Panthers would pick sixth overall, and the three teams picking ahead of them — the Broncos, Rams and Saints — have all traded their first-round picks away, so there's no incentive for them to lose games down the stretch, potentially moving Carolina higher if the Panthers themselves don't win.

The Panthers are 3-4 under interim coach Steve Wilks, who has another five games to make a case for getting another shot as a head coach, and they've actually played better since trading star running back Christian McCaffrey and receiver Robbie Anderson. Carolina waived quarterback Baker Mayfield this week, and his getting claimed by the Rams should save the Panthers about $1.4 million that he would have otherwise been paid.

That brings up another curious subplot: What can Sam Darnold do in these final five games to help his standing in a deep group of free-agent quarterbacks this spring? Though only 25, he's nowhere near the top tier of available passers, which could include the Ravens' Lamar Jackson, the Bucs' Tom Brady, the Seahawks' Geno Smith, the 49ers' Jimmy Garoppolo, the Giants' Daniel Jones and the Commanders' Taylor Heinicke.

There will be other veteran starters available, including the Browns' Jacoby Brissett and the Saints' Andy Dalton, and Darnold is in that second tier, perhaps a notch below Mayfield. Darnold made $18 million this season on the fifth-year option from his rookie deal, and he'll likely only get a fraction of that money in this free-agent cycle.

He and Mayfield, also due to become a free agent, will join a list of recent high draft picks who came off huge rookie contracts to find limited demand from new teams, and often no uncontested path to a starting job. On the high end, you have Marcus Mariota getting two years and $17.6 million from the Raiders in 2020, or Mitchell Trubisky getting two years and $14 million from the Steelers last year. But the falloff can be more drastic: Jameis Winston got one year and $1.1 million from the Saints in 2020 before bouncing back with a better deal, and Blake Bortles got one year, $1 million from the Rams in 2019 before slowly fading off the NFL radar.

Darnold has missed most of this season with an ankle injury, making his season debut in Carolina's last game before the bye, throwing for 164 yards and a touchdown and rushing for another score in a 23-10 win over the Broncos. In five NFL seasons, he barely has more touchdown passes (55) than interceptions (52), but he has a small window here to show what he can do.

"Any time you get an opportunity to play in this league, it's a great opportunity," Darnold said this week, preparing for Seattle. "I know [Mayfield] feels the same way that I do in that regard, in that you don't take any snap for granted that you get in this league."

Rarely are NFL quarterbacks even allowed to become late bloomers, but there's a model for it on the other sidelines this weekend in the Seahawks' Smith. A second-round pick in 2013, he started 29 games in his first two seasons, but underperformed enough that he started just five games over the next seven seasons with four different teams. He has found himself again at age 32 this year, throwing for 22 touchdowns against only six interceptions.

"Obviously, he's been making the most of it and playing really well," Darnold said.

Spotrac, which projects a "market value" for impending free agents, has Darnold at $5.1 million for one year, slightly less than Mayfield, but a strong finish to this season could help his future, even if it's not with Carolina.

Falcons shift focus forward with Ridder at QB

Arthur Smith had strongly hinted at a change at quarterback after Sunday's loss to Pittsburgh, repeating that everything was on the table and changes would be made.

So Marcus Mariota goes to the bench after 13 starts, and rookie Desmond Ridder, the team's third-round pick from Cincinnati, has a four-game audition to make a case for himself and sell the Falcons on not needing to use a higher draft pick on a quarterback in April.

Ridder, 23, was the second quarterback taken in the 2022 NFL Draft, after throwing for 30 touchdowns against just eight interceptions as a senior with the Bearcats. He has yet to take a snap this season but showed promise in the preseason, going 34-for-56 for 431 yards, three touchdowns and two interceptions. Only three other NFL quarterbacks had more preseason touchdowns.

Will the run-heavy Falcons open up their offense a bit for Ridder? Atlanta ranks 31st in passing yards per game, and only the Bears have attempted fewer passes than the Falcons, who still have the fourth-highest interception rate in the league. Ridder won't have the team's best offensive weapon, as tight end Kyle Pitts is done for the year following a knee injury last month.

Every time Ridder leads the Falcons to victory, he drops the team a little lower in the first round of the draft — the consensus top two prospects in the class, Alabama's Bryce Young and Ohio State's C.J. Stroud, will almost certainly be gone before Atlanta is on the clock. The Falcons would pick 10th right now, and could move up a spot or two during their bye week if either the Jaguars or Cardinals win, or could move down to 11th if the Raiders (5-7) lose.

Another wrinkle in the quarterback change: Mariota has no guaranteed money in the second year of his contract, and while he made $6.75 million this season, he'd make considerably more in 2023, with a $9 million base salary and a $3 million roster bonus due in March. That would be expensive for a backup, and the Falcons can move on with just $2.5 million in dead money (half of his $5 million signing bonus) and save $12 million in cap space if they don't bring him back.

Pro Bowl options sparse this season

The NFC South had 17 players make the Pro Bowl in Las Vegas last season — nine from the division champ Bucs, four from the Saints and two each from the Panthers and Falcons. The division will be lucky to get half that this season, with the lack of team success filtering down to less compelling individual showings as well.

Fan voting is only a third of the Pro Bowl selection process, and that's ongoing for another week, but it doesn't bode well for the division. Tampa Bay's highest ranked player is kicker Ryan Succop, third among all kickers, with Vita Vea fourth among defensive tackles and Tristan Wirfs fifth among offensive tackle, and Tom Brady barely cracking the top 10 at quarterback, ranking ninth.

Carolina punter Johnny Hekker, who has been to four Pro Bowls but none since 2017, is the leading vote-getter at punter, but the Panthers' best bet to make the Pro Bowl is defensive end Brian Burns, who ranks third in the NFC with 10 sacks. New Orleans' Cam Jordan has made the Pro Bowl five years in a row, but with only 5.5 sacks on a team with a losing record, he's not the lock he used to be.

The division doesn't have anyone in the NFC's top 10 in rushing, or any defensive player with more than two interceptions. Receivers like the Saints' Chris Olave and the Bucs' Mike Evans are solid in yardage, but they have only three touchdowns each, making it unlikely for them. New Orleans' Juwan Johnson is tied for the NFC lead among tight ends with five TDs, but those nods are more likely to go to more prominent players like the 49ers' George Kittle and the Cardinals' Zach Ertz.

Can Brady, who already has 15 Pro Bowl selections in his career, pull out one more this season? The Eagles' Jalen Hurts and Seahawks' Smith probably have two spots locked up, but Brady would be in the mix for a third spot. Wirfs might have the best shot among the division's offensive linemen — the Falcons' Chris Lindstrom is Pro Football Focus' highest rated guard in the league this season and could earn his way onto the team, as could defensive tackle Grady Jarrett, who made the Pro Bowl in 2019 and 2020 and has more sacks (5.5) and tackles for loss (10) than he did two years ago.

The Bucs' Devin White, having won an NFC defensive player of the month and week award this season, could be the second NFC inside linebacker alongside the 49ers' Fred Warner, and Tampa Bay safety Antoine Winfield could make it back, though he's now missed three games with injuries and could miss a fourth Sunday.

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Greg Auman is FOX Sports’ NFC South reporter, covering the Buccaneers, Falcons, Panthers and Saints. He is in his 10th season covering the Bucs and the NFL full-time, having spent time at the Tampa Bay Times and The Athletic. You can follow him on Twitter at @gregauman.