Why Titans are AFC South’s wild card ahead of draft, free agency

By Ben Arthur
Published

In the AFC South, the directions of three of the four teams are clear. 

There's the Jaguars, the reigning division champions, banking on continuity and an ascending Trevor Lawrence to establish themselves as perennial AFC contenders. There are the Texans and Colts, both of whom are welcoming new coaches and hoping to draft their quarterback of the future, looking to be competitive again as quickly as possible after a deflating 2022 campaign. 

But then there are the Titans, whose direction isn't as clear. Fourteen months ago, they had back-to-back division titles and the AFC's No. 1 seed entering the 2021 playoffs. This past season, they lost seven straight games to cap a disastrous 7-10 campaign, their first losing season since 2015. They have a new general manager paired with a returning, powerful coach. And they have limited draft capital and financial constraints to improve an injury-riddled roster with multiple holes. What's next in Tennessee is anyone's guess. 

It makes the Titans the AFC South's biggest wild card entering draft season and free agency, which begins next week. 

With the 11th overall pick in the 2023 draft, Tennessee has its highest selection since 2017, which should make trading up for a quarterback at least a consideration — even if coach Mike Vrabel and general manager Ran Carthon continue to publicly back Ryan Tannehill. 

Tannehill's value to quarterback-needy teams has only increased with Derek Carr headed to the Saints and Geno Smith re-signing with the Seahawks. It will continue to increase if Lamar Jackson and/or Aaron Rodgers stay put with the Ravens and Packers, respectively. 

The Titans could explore that market. Dealing Tannehill with a pre-June 1 designation would not only clear $17.8 million in 2023 salary cap space, but also arm Tennessee with more draft picks — ones that could make a trade up from No. 11 more palpable. The Titans currently have just six picks for 2023.

"We're always open to business," Carthon said last week of trading out of the 11th spot. "It's always about just being open to try to add value. So we'll kind of listen and field every call and see what comes from it."

Carthon, a former 49ers player personnel executive, then provided an example of why it's essential to know the quarterback draft class every year.

"Because of the nature of the position, I think you go into every year making sure you know that class from top to bottom," he said. "Who knew Brock Purdy was going to be Brock Purdy as the last pick of the draft? You had just taken Trey [Lance] the year before. You had Jimmy [Garoppolo]. Who thought of taking a quarterback in the seventh round? You just knew the class and it was something that happened."

Headed into the new league year, here's what looms over the Titans: whether to rebuild or retool the roster. 

Tennessee has already released a handful of veterans: left tackle Taylor Lewan, wide receiver Robert Woods, linebacker Zach Cunningham and place kicker Randy Bullock, with outside linebacker Bud Dupree reportedly expected to join them. Those were anticipated moves to reach salary cap compliance, to create the financial flexibility needed to improve the roster. 

The decisions on Tannehill and superstar running back Derrick Henry will be the major dominoes. Tannehill's Nashville future remains uncertain at best, and Tennessee was reportedly "shopping" Henry at the combine. Moving on from one or both players would signal a need for a complete rebuild; retaining them for at least one more season indicates a retooled roster around them for 2023. 

"I'm open to adding great players to our roster, whether that's at quarterback, whether that's a running back, whether that's a defensive line, corner," Vrabel said last week. "We've got some needs and some holes. … I've asked for players with an element of speed, violence and versatility. That's what I want to look for — and offensive linemen that can protect the quarterback, whether that's Ryan, whether that's Malik [Willis], whether that's Josh Dobbs, whoever that ends up being." 

Vrabel's decision to elevate Tim Kelly from passing game coordinator to offensive coordinator appeared to be a doubling down of his offensive approach, but the Titans coach hasn't ruled out wholesale changes. Carthon indicated at the combine how the scheme plays a role in the type of player pursued. 

With the Titans' offensive direction unknown, that adds at least some unpredictability as to what exactly they're looking for. 

"I wouldn't say that there's not going to be a radical scheme change," Vrabel said of the offense. "That is still in the process of being built. There will be things that will be different. That was part of the [offensive coordinator] interview process. There will be some things that I really like and that Tim really likes and that the offensive staff likes that we do well. And there will be some things that we do differently and that we'll have to do better."

Ben Arthur is the AFC South reporter for FOX Sports. He previously worked for The Tennessean/USA TODAY Network, where he was the Titans beat writer for a year and a half. He covered the Seattle Seahawks for SeattlePI.com for three seasons (2018-20) prior to moving to Tennessee. You can follow Ben on Twitter at @benyarthur.

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