Why Raiders QB Derek Carr faces make-or-break game vs. Chargers

By Bucky Brooks
FOX Sports NFL Analyst

There comes a time in every franchise quarterback’s career when he faces a must-win scenario that will ultimately define his legacy.

For Derek Carr, that moment is now. On Sunday night, in the final game of the 2021-22 NFL regular season, the Raiders meet the Chargers in a win-or-go-home battle.

Some will suggest that's hyperbole, that this game should not have any added significance for a quarterback who's considered a fringe top-10 at the position. 

But to me, there is no way Carr can be considered an elite quarterback without guiding the Raiders into the playoffs this season.

The eight-year pro has just two winning seasons on his résumé, with only one playoff berth, while sporting a 56-70 career record as a starter. Despite the argument that QB wins should not be considered a real stat, it is difficult to validate a quarterback as a blue-chip player if his team fails to win consistently in the NFL.

Keep in mind, Tom Brady is viewed as the GOAT due to his seven rings. Winning matters in this league, and Carr will not get the respect he wants without adding more wins, particularly signature wins, to his résumé.

Fair or not, Carr will be judged on his ability to win a marquee game with playoff implications against a young quarterback making a run at the NFL’s QB1 crown. Carr needs to not only win but also show the football world that he can go toe-to-toe with Justin Herbert in a prime-time game that could turn into a shootout.

With the quarterback carousel expected to spin out of control this offseason, Carr’s performance could impact how the Raiders handle a potential contract extension in the coming months. In 2017, Carr set the market with a five-year, $125 million deal that included $70 million in guarantees. With only one season left on that contract, the Raiders must determine if Carr is worth the $40 million annually that has become the standard for blue-chip quarterbacks.

When pondering that decision, the team must compare and contrast Carr to the likes of Patrick Mahomes ($45 million average per year), Josh Allen ($43 million) and Dak Prescott ($40 million). Considering that each member of the "$40 Million Club" has a résumé with multiple playoff appearances, Carr needs a few more accolades and achievements if he is to join the party.

Sure, his 24 fourth-quarter comebacks and 29 game-winning drives in eight seasons are impressive, but it is difficult to pay a sub-.500 quarterback big bucks, particularly if he is not a "truck" at the position. (Quarterbacks are classified as either "trucks," those capable of carrying their teams, or "trailers," those who need the team to carry them.)

Based on the Raiders’ record under his direction, Carr doesn't qualify as a truck. If he were capable of elevating the play of his teammates with his unique talents, say, the way Buffalo's multidimensional QB does, the Raiders would be truckin' into the playoffs more often.

Carr certainly deserves credit for helping to navigate the Raiders through some big storms this season, including the Jon Gruden dismissal and the fatal DUI accident involving Henry Ruggs. But Carr and the Raiders have faded fast down the stretch in each of the past two seasons. In 2020, they lost five of their last seven games to finish 8-8. In 2019, they dropped five of their final six games to close with a 7-9 record.

This year has been different. The Raiders are on a late-season winning streak, having beaten the Browns, Broncos and Colts by a total of nine points. The three-game streak guarantees the Raiders a winning season for the first time since 2016. 

A victory over the Chargers on Sunday would change the narrative surrounding the team and the quarterback. A playoff berth would suggest that the team is on the right track under Rich Bissacia, which could lead to the interim coach remaining in place.

In that case, Carr would likely continue to play in the same system under an offensive coaching staff that has helped him post solid numbers since 2018. And the holdovers could become his biggest advocates during contract negotiations.

With so much riding on this pivotal matchup in Week 18, Carr would be wise to heed Al Davis’ legendary words:

"Just win, baby!"

Bucky Brooks is an NFL analyst for FOX Sports and regularly appears on "Speak For Yourself." He also breaks down the game for NFL Network and is a cohost of the "Moving the Sticks" podcast.