Why Patriots offense doesn't make sense; Is Kliff Kingsbury's time up?
The Patriots won Monday night. They are sitting on the AFC's No. 7 seed and if the season ended now, they'd be in the playoffs. But they aren't likely to actually make the playoffs.
Right now, the Pats are a consensus -300 to miss the playoffs. That means oddsmakers expect them to make the playoffs only 25% of the time. A major reason? Their remaining schedule includes the Raiders, Bengals, Dolphins and Bills.
While the Raiders defense ranks 21st, the other run defenses they will face are all above-average.
The Patriots have played eight above-average run defenses. In those games, New England is 4-0 when they hold their opponents to 14 or fewer points.
When they allow anything over 14 points?
0-4, with the losses coming against Miami, Baltimore, Minnesota and Buffalo.
Recognize two of those teams? That's right; the Bills and Dolphins, two teams they must face in their final four games.
If the Patriots go 2-2, they're likely out of the playoffs. Unless one of those wins comes against the Dolphins and Miami goes 1-3 in their final four games. A win over Miami but New England going 2-2 down the stretch still puts them out of the playoffs if Miami also goes 2-2. That would clinch a playoff spot for the Dolphins.
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Pats QB Mac Jones was seen having a verbal altercation with Patriots coaches during the first half of Monday's win at Arizona.
So, New England really must go 3-1 in their final four games. That means the Pats need to beat multiple above-average run defenses. And I just don't see it given their current approach to offense.
Prior to their two-minute drill against the Cardinals before halftime, the Patriots had five offensive drives. Mac Jones had 19 dropbacks on those drives. Jones averaged 1.47 air yards per attempt.
To put that into context, I looked back at every single game played by QBs with at least 19 pass attempts since 2000. Not a single quarterback averaged anything less than 2.0 air yards per attempt. Jones was down at 1.47 air yards per attempt.
During the Pats' Dec. 1 loss at home to the Bills, Jones implored the team to "throw the f---ing ball!" He ostensibly meant downfield. Because the short passes weren't doing anything.
With extra time to prepare, what did OC Matt Patricia do?
Nothing but throw the ball short. And it's one thing if these passes were successful. They were not.
More than half of Jones' passes were thrown at or behind the line of scrimmage. These passes averaged -0.29 expected points added per attempt, a 30% success rate and 2.8 yards per average.
On the two passes thrown more than 10 yards downfield on these first two drives, Jones went 2-for-2 with 13.5 YPA, +1.59 EPA/att and 100% success. It's inconceivable for an offense to be designed in this manner.
Get this: The Patriots are the NFL's No. 1 offense when using play action to pass the ball. The Cardinals ranked No. 30 against play action. And yet the Patriots used play action three times on 37 dropbacks.
My belief that the Patriots won't make the playoffs isn't because they don't have the players, nor is it because Jones doesn't have the ability to win games against good opponents.
It's that their offensive coaching doesn't do either of the two things offensive coaching should do:
No. 1: Play to the strength of your own personnel and the weaknesses of your opponent's personnel.
No. 2 Use enough of what has been proven to work well on offense league-wide while reducing what has been proven to work poorly.
Patricia seemingly doesn't care about either of those two tenets. And New England likely misses the playoffs because of it.
Is Kliff Kingsbury's time up?
The Cardinals are in Year 4 with Kingsbury and a QB drafted No. 1 overall, accompanied by cost-controlled cap hits for those four years. The team's record is 28-33-1 (0.460). They have had one winning season and zero playoff wins.
This has been a disaster on every front. Coaching, hiring, drafting, play calling, execution … the works. Segmenting elements of overall performance, the picture gets only more bleak.
Teams win more often at home. But in the four years since hiring Kingsbury, the Cardinals have won only 10 of their 32 home games. The only team with fewer home wins since 2019 is Houston, with nine.
There is no progress. There is no improvement. The same thing happens year after year.
Good coaches tend to make good game plans. Kingsbury is an offensive coach. He designs the offense and calls the plays. But in the four years, he has been the head coach, do you know where the Cardinals rank in efficiency on their scripted first drive of the game?
- No. 24 in percentage of first downs or touchdowns per play
- No. 21 in EPA/play
- No. 20 in success rate per play
Another sign of good coaching is adapting and improving as the season progresses. Understanding your players, adding to the offense to get more out of them, and improving as you head down the stretch.
But look at Kingsbury's team by week throughout his Arizona tenure:
Weeks 1-7:
18-9-1, 20-8 (71%) against the spread
Week 8 and on:
10-25 (29%), 13-22 (37%) against the spread
All of this came with Murray on a cost-controlled contract. Murray only hits the cap for $16 million next season, which is extremely affordable. But he won't be available — at least not at the beginning of the season, having torn his ACL on Monday night.
His next full season will be 2024… when his cap hit jumps to $51.9 million.
That's the opposite of cost-controlled. It's the third-largest cap hit for any player in 2024 (as of right now).
How do they build out a better roster with Murray then taking up so much space? How does the GM make Kingsbury's life easier? He won't. Kingsbury will have to coach better to achieve the same results with worse players due to Murray's cap hit.
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How do the Cardinals regroup after Kyler Murray's ACL injury?
What we've seen from Kingsbury won't cut it. He would have to make a legendary improvement as a head coach to get where the Cardinals want to go with Kyler Murray taking up that much cap space.
It's not going to happen. He has had four years to prove something. He didn't. The results speak for themselves. Odds are heavily stacked against him proving it next season. Or the season after.
Heading into this season, I wrote the following about the Cardinals:
You can predict the Cardinals will regress on long-yardage third downs and short-yardage situations running into heavy boxes, resulting in more fourth down punts, field goals, or turnovers on downs.
You can predict their red-zone rushing brilliance will regress and fewer drives will end in seven points, while more end with three or zero.
You can believe that with the Cardinals playing the NFL's most difficult schedule from Week 10 onward, Kliff Kingsbury may run into the same late-season struggles as his teams always seem to do.
You can guess that Kyler Murray's style of play results in another injury, which results in him potentially struggling to close out the season, as he's done the two prior years
This says nothing of all the offseason drama which built up between Murray and the Cardinals, which could easily turn a season that begins sideways into something potentially problematic pretty quickly.
Before this season, I placed my largest-ever bets in the futures on the Cardinals to go under 9.5 and 9 wins. I predicted chaos and havoc. And I predicted Kingsbury would not have a winning formula to win.
The 4-9 Cardinals just ensured, even if they win their final four games, they won't win more than eight games this year. This is a failure of a season. Don't blame it on Murray's injury. This is on Kliff Kingsbury.
And in my opinion, his time is up.
Warren Sharp is an NFL analyst for FOX Sports. He is the founder of Sharp Football Analysis and has worked as a consultant for league franchises while also previously contributing to ESPN and The Ringer, among other outlets. He studied engineering before using his statistical acumen to create predictive football models. You can follow Warren on Twitter at @SharpFootball.