Why Patriots fans shouldn’t expect Bill Belichick to sell at trade deadline

Bill Belichick wants to win. He wants to do "what's best for the team." He tends to do the unexpected. Put it all together and it feels like, maybe, Belichick will decide not to sell any of the pieces of his 2023 New England Patriots. 

From a team-building standpoint, the Patriots should sell before the Oct. 31 trade deadline. They are 2-5 after managing to eke out a win over the Buffalo Bills on Sunday. It doesn't feel like the type of success they can replicate, just given the game plan (and the team's injuries). But it provided some hope for a Patriots team that looked atrocious in the previous three weeks. 

And actually, that hope — that production — is exactly what a GM would typically use to deal away players such as receiver Kendrick Bourne, guard Michael Onwenu or edge rusher Josh Uche in order to jumpstart a more dramatic rebuild in the 2024 offseason.

"It'll definitely be on my mind," Bourne said last week when asked if he had considered the trade deadline. "But just being ready for whatever, man. I want to be here. I'd love to be here. But if there's other plans, then it is what it is."

Get picks now for impending free agents. Use the draft capital in the 2024 NFL Draft. And then spend New England's massive reserve of cap space to restock. That's what a teardown — even a halfhearted one — would look like.

But Belichick is both the GM and the coach. He is accountable in the locker room for the decisions he makes in the front office, which is unlike any other situation in the NFL right now. (Every other team employs separate people as GM and coach.)

Belichick never tears down. Not even in 2020 when Tom Brady left and the team was 2-5 with Cam Newton at quarterback. The Patriots responded to that low point by winning four of their next five games. It didn't save their season. But it saved their locker room. They were never really playoff relevant, but they finished 7-9. And it preserved Belichick's approach: Never signal to your players they're playing for high draft picks. (In other words, never signal to your players they're playing for nothing.)

Now, a skeptic would ask: It saved their locker room from what? The Patriots have yet to truly recover from Brady's departure. And maybe Belichick has the support of his locker room. But the Patriots are 82-95 in the post-Brady era. What good is that locker-room support if the players aren't talented enough to make a postseason run?

That's a fair question. And again, that's why I'd argue the Patriots should probably sell.

But so far as we've seen, that's not how Belichick thinks. He was asked last week what his philosophy might be going into the deadline given the team's record.

"Right now, I'm just thinking about Buffalo," Belichick said Wednesday.

The man doesn't change.

If the Patriots gave up Bourne, they'd remove the most explosive element of their passing offense. If New England gave up Onwenu, it would yank away the force that stabilized the blocking efforts against the Bills. (The Patriots moved Onwenu, an elite guard, to right tackle, and he played at a very high level, solidifying their weakest position this year.) 

If they got rid of both players, then how in the world would they evaluate quarterback Mac Jones, who is in the middle of a make-or-break season? 

If you're going to sell Jones' most important pieces, why not sell Jones, too? It's not like he's going to be able to change the team's mind without a functioning offensive unit around him.

"I'm not focused on that right now," Jones said when asked if he'd considered the possibility he might get traded. "Honestly, just really focusing on coming together as a team during tough times and seeing how we respond, seeing how I respond. I'm definitely excited for the challenge, looking at it in the eyes and taking it head on."

The more the Patriots sell, the more they pull from the Jenga set. And the faster the whole thing falls apart in dramatic collapse. That's what some teams go for, particularly in a year when the prize could be quarterback prospect Caleb Williams, perhaps the closest thing to Patrick Mahomes that draft analysts have seen. 

But that's not what the Patriots go for.

At the trade deadline in 2016, Belichick got rid of Jamie Collins before winning a Super Bowl. Belichick sold one of the best defensive players when most GMs would buy. In 2020, the season that's most similar to this one, the Patriots traded for receiver Isaiah Ford at the deadline. New England was a (meager) buyer at a deadline when most GMs would sell.

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It likely has something to do with leverage. Belichick likes to bargain shop. He doesn't like to get bargain-shopped. Teams come sniffing around a 2-5 team with hopes they can find a good deal. Just look at what the Philadelphia Eagles gave up for Pro Bowl safety Kevin Byard (Terrell Edmunds and fifth- and sixth-round draft picks). It was a steal for Philly GM Howie Roseman.

Belichick won't let anyone fleece him.

If a team came in with a terrific offer for one of the Patriots' best pieces, they'd listen. They always do. But Belichick is probably going to be one of the GMs calling the Cardinals and the Bears and the Broncos to see if there's any value in buying. He's not going to be calling the Eagles, the 49ers or the other contenders to see if they're buying. 

In the coming weeks, New England will be looking to make a move back to .500 — as delusional as that sounds — and it can't do that by getting rid of players. Belichick is, if nothing else, stubborn. And it's likely his trade deadline philosophy will reflect that.

Prior to joining FOX Sports as the AFC East reporter, Henry McKenna spent seven years covering the Patriots for USA TODAY Sports Media Group and Boston Globe Media. Follow him on Twitter at @henrycmckenna.