Why Lamar Jackson will win contract dispute with Ravens

The Baltimore Ravens aren't likely to win this contract standoff with quarterback Lamar Jackson. And the reason is simple: There are probably seven NFL players or fewer who are more valuable than Jackson. That's it.

In situations like this, the star wins. Jackson will win.

The two sides are fighting over an extension, with the fifth-year of Jackson's rookie contract set to expire in March. Per NFL Network’s Ian Rapoport, Jackson wants a deal comparable to what Deshaun Watson got from the Browns: $50 million per year. And that might not be a tough ask if Jackson reportedly didn't also want that deal fully guaranteed, like Watson's is. 

That seems to be where Baltimore has struggled to meet Jackson's demands. The Ravens' most-recent offer hovered around $50 million per year with about 68% of the total guaranteed, per NFL Network. The simplest comparison for a contract like that is Russell Wilson's.

But the Ravens are wrong to compare this situation to that of Wilson. First of all, Wilson is eight years older. We're not talking apples to apples, with a 26-year-old Jackson. And then there's almost a subliminal comparison happening. Because if Jackson holds out long enough, the Ravens might trade him, just like the Seahawks traded Wilson last March. And the Broncos-Wilson situation might have deluded teams into thinking that, by trading a top-tier quarterback, they can still come out as winners. 

Wilson has flopped in Denver. Jackson could flop elsewhere, too. Right?

That ain't happening.

"You can't win in this league without a strong quarterback. That's been proven," Ravens general manager Eric DeCosta said at the NFL Combine on Wednesday. "So we want Lamar here. We think he's one of the best quarterbacks in the league. He's certainly one of our best players, and we want him back. So yeah, we understand that. Living in a world without a quarterback is a bad world to live in."

Jackson is fighting an admirable fight. In a violent, physically demanding league in which the average career length is 3.3 years, the players have somehow found themselves in a situation where their contracts are not fully guaranteed — unlike in the NBA and MLB. When an NFL player asks for guarantees, the GMs and league owners act like it's insanity. HOW COULD YOU!? But look around at pro sports. NFL players deserve guaranteed money as much — or more than — the athletes in the NBA or MLB. Good for Jackson for fighting for more guaranteed money. If he gets it, he could continue to change the tide on how NFL players are paid.

And Jackson is very committed. Per NFL Network, he is so hell-bent upon getting guaranteed money that he was willing to play on his fifth-year option — and now he's willing to play on whatever tag the Ravens place on him in the coming year (or years). The risk? He continues to suffer injuries, jeopardizing his earning power.

For 2023, the Ravens can place the exclusive franchise tag on Jackson, worth $45 million, which is essentially a one-year deal. Jackson can either accept it or stage a holdout in an effort to force a trade or extension. Baltimore can also use the non-exclusive franchise tag, worth $32.4 million, which allows Jackson to hit the market but gives the Ravens the right of first refusal. If another team offers and Jackson signs the contract offer, Baltimore gets to match that deal — or let Jackson go. In return for Jackson's hypothetical departure, the Ravens would receive two first-round draft choices.

If this situation sounds familiar, you might be thinking of quarterback Kirk Cousins. He played on the franchise tag twice with Washington. And he eventually ended up hitting the open market, where he signed the first fully guaranteed contract in NFL history. His cap number was modest: sixth-most in the NFL. But in 2018, he signed a three-year, $84 million deal with Minnesota in the open market. Now, let's be clear: Cousins was not the sixth-best quarterback in the league. That's just how free agency works. Teams overpay for talent, because the top talent never hits free agency. Teams never let the top talent hit free agency.

But in this case with Jackson, it might just happen. He could absolutely hit free agency. And if Cousins — probably the 12th-best quarterback in the NFL — got paid like the sixth-best with full guarantees, then why shouldn't Jackson demand a deal that puts him in the range of Patrick Mahomes, Dak Prescott and Watson, the latter of whom received his guaranteed money while facing more than 20 civil lawsuits for sexual misconduct.

Jackson's ask is huge. It's a historic contract request. But that's what happens when the NFL raises its salary cap — salaries go up. The contract is much more reasonable than what the Ravens think they can get away with. Cousins has proven that Jackson's path to free agency could be enormously lucrative — with two years on the franchise tag and then a welcoming open market in free agency. 

And I can't even imagine what quarterbacks will be getting paid in 2025. Could Jackson demand $60 million per year? Fully guaranteed? While the pandemic led to a brief deceleration of the salary cap numbers, the NFL is back to raising the roof on player earnings. Jackson is going to get paid if his career continues on an upward trajectory.

Everyone can see all this, right? Jackson is shooting high. He's being firm. So why can't either side make any progress? The Ravens run Jackson often, which might lead to a shortened career. That's probably a level of leverage that Baltimore has. What if Jackson tears his ACL on the franchise tag? What if he hurts his throwing shoulder? It's a legitimate concern for Jackson.

The biggest X-factor is that Jackson has never hired an agent. And without an agent, he is likely to lose the PR battle. The team is more likely to feed information that makes it look favorable. And perhaps that's the only information getting out. At the combine, DeCosta also acknowledged that, without an agent, the negotiations take a different tone.

"I think when you deal with an agent, sometimes you're able to speak very freely, position yourself a certain way. You have different arguments that you can use that maybe you wouldn't say to a player. So I think that's part of it," DeCosta said Wednesday. "You see the commitment. You see where they're coming from. So it's definitely a different dynamic."

But the Ravens drafted Jackson without an agent. They could have anticipated this day coming, particularly when imagining the best-case scenarios. Their former 32nd-overall draft pick is a star quarterback. They wanted to be in a position where they were fighting over guaranteed millions. It means they drafted a great player.

The final argument that the Ravens will make is this one: Jackson's contract would completely cripple Baltimore's ability to build a team.

Don't buy that. The Vikings are doing just fine with Cousins' deal. They've been competitive ever since they signed him. And it's not like Baltimore has done an amazing job surrounding Jackson with weapons anyway. It's been ugly, in fact: John Brown, Marquise Brown and Demarcus Robinson have been the leading receivers in Jackson's first five seasons. Tight end Mark Andrews has been the most reliable pass-catching threat.

Jackson has earned every penny that he's asking for. While the Ravens can make their points about why they shouldn't pay him, the truth is simple: someone will. Someone will pay Jackson what he wants. 

And so Baltimore has to decide whether it will be that team.

Prior to joining FOX Sports as the AFC East reporter, Henry McKenna spent seven years covering the Patriots for USA TODAY Sports Media Group and Boston Globe Media. Follow him on Twitter at @McKennAnalysis.

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