Why Cowboys should not fire Mike McCarthy despite playoff disaster

Don't do it!

Despite suffering through another embarrassing Dallas Cowboys playoff defeat, Jerry Jones should pause before pulling the plug on the Mike McCarthy experiment. The longtime owner should avoid making an emotional decision that will set back the franchise for the next decade.

Sure, the team's recent playoff failures fall short of the "Super Bowl or bust" expectations in Dallas, but McCarthy has guided the Cowboys to a pair of division titles and three straight playoff berths since 2021. In addition, the one-time Super Bowl champion has won 12 games in each of the past three years, with the second-most wins (36) in the league behind the Kansas City Chiefs (37) during that span.

With McCarthy personally overseeing the NFL's top-ranked scoring offense (29.9), a quarterback playing at an MVP level and a receiver pushing for the league's WR1 crown, the Cowboys would make a big mistake dismissing an elite head coach due to the team's playoff failures.

Among coaches who were on NFL sidelines in 2023, McCarthy's 167 career wins place him behind only Bill Belichick (302), Andy Reid (258), Mike Tomlin (173) and Pete Carroll (170). His 62.0 winning percentage ranks ahead of those of esteemed offensive coaches Sean McVay (60.9%) and Kyle Shanahan (55.7%). 

Given the challenge of finding an "elite" coach, Jones should not let his disappointment cloud his judgment when evaluating the program over the next few days. The Cowboys' offensive success and defensive prowess under McCarthy should encourage the loquacious owner to run it back with a few tweaks to the team and staff, particularly with the stars flourishing within the system.

Dak Prescott enjoyed one of the best years of his career due to McCarthy's quarterback-friendly play designs and play calls. The eighth-year pro posted career bests in completion percentage (69.5%) and passer rating (105.9), with an exceptional touchdown-to-interception ratio (36:9) that reflected his effectiveness within the system.

With the second-team All-Pro playing with supreme confidence directing the offense, the Cowboys watched their WR1 evolve into the league's premier playmaker. CeeDee Lamb led the NFL with 135 receptions while tallying 1,749 receiving yards and 12 scores as the top option in the passing game. The rapid development of the quarterback and receiver should help Jones resist the temptation to blow up the offense.

That said, the offense needs to evolve and expand to enable more players to make significant contributions at crucial moments. The Cowboys need a workhorse runner to create a more balanced attack to counter the coverage-based schemes that stymied the team in big games against the San Francisco 49ers, Philadelphia Eagles, Buffalo Bills and Miami Dolphins. In addition, adding a high-end WR2 with speed and big-play potential could alleviate the pressure on Lamb to carry the passing game as a one-man show on the perimeter.

Defensively, the Cowboys' dismal playoff showing will overshadow a stellar regular season performance by a unit specializing in takeaways. Dan Quinn's turnover-obsessed group has led the NFL in takeaways over the past three seasons, with a collection of scrappy ballhawks swiping the football at every turn. The defense's dominance in the game's biggest area has keyed the Cowboys' re-emergence as a perennial playoff contender.

Although the lasting images of the Green Bay Packers running through and around a confused and overwhelmed defense will lead to tough questions for the defensive staff, Jones should take a panoramic view of the unit. The defensive staff has unlocked the disruptive potential of Dallas' blue-chip playmakers (Micah Parson and Trevon Diggs) while developing an unheralded star (DaRon Bland) into a gold-star player. With a cast of veterans thriving around them, the coaching staff knows how to maximize the talent at its disposal while collecting wins during the regular season.

While the playoff failures are perplexing based on the team's collection of talent and rock-solid scheming, the Cowboys would make a colossal error evaluating McCarthy's term purely on postseason performance. The team has undoubtedly improved under his direction, with Dallas qualifying for the playoffs for three straight seasons for the first time since making six consecutive appearances from 1991 to 1996.

Moreover, the Cowboys have found a coach who has helped the franchise QB play the best football of his career. Though it has not been good enough to help Dallas reach the championship rounds, Prescott's consistency in a quarterback-driven league should earn McCarthy another year if he can present a plan to help the team move closer to title contender status.

Whether changing the playoff practice plan or making subtle adjustments to the coaching staff to ensure better performances in January, the veteran coach must provide answers for the team's playoff struggles. Although the uncomfortable conversations will create tension for the coaching staff throughout 2024, the Cowboys' best plan for a title run next season should include McCarthy as the squad leader.

Bucky Brooks is an NFL analyst for FOX Sports. He also breaks down the game for NFL Network and as a cohost of the "Moving the Sticks" podcast. Follow him on Twitter @BuckyBrooks.